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Q1 2023 – Office
01
Office-using Employment Growth
Asking Rent and Availability
Leasing ActivityKey Statistics
Outlook
02
03
In Q1 2023, the Los Angeles office market continued to see a lower level
of leasing activity with 2.9 million square feet (msf) leased. This was flat
from last quarter, as well as down 19% from 3.6 msf reported a year ago.
This was also below the 5-year quarterly leasing average of 3.3 msf.
With continued economic uncertainty spilling over from late-2022,
expect leasing activity to remain low in 2023 as most discretionary
lease deals are now on the sidelines.
Total availability rate ticks up to 26.2%
Office availability increased 20 basis points (bps) from 26.0% reported
at year-end 2022 to 26.2% in Q1 2023. This is now the highest
availability ever reported in the Los Angeles office market as demand
continues to be below pre-pandemic levels. In addition, available
sublease space has increased to 10.4 msf, up from 10.3 msf reported
last quarter, as well as up from 9.1 msf reported a year ago. The overall
average asking rental rate decreased yet again from $3.85 per square
foot (psf) per month reported last quarter to $3.83 psf per month. The
Class A average asking rental rate also decreased from $4.05 psf per
month reported last quarter to $4.01 psf per month as downward
pressure on average asking and effective rental rates continues.
Expect more office property distress this year as interest rates rise
As mentioned above, most discretionary lease deals remain on the
sidelines as many occupiers who do not have near-term lease
expirations take a wait-and-see approach. In addition, it is important to
note that with rising interest rates, worsening property fundamentals,
and decreasing building valuations, there will be more office property
loan distress around Los Angeles in 2023 as many owners find
themselves underwater on their properties. With the exception of only
a few submarkets such as Century City, the overall Los Angeles office
market is forecasted to see more distress and tenant-favorable
fundamentals as office owners aggressively compete for occupancy in
an uncertain economic environment.
Los Angeles
Q1 2022 Q1 2023 Y-O-Y
220.2 msf 221.1 msf +0.9 msf
25.3% 26.2% +90 bps
$3.88 $3.83 -1.3%
Class A Asking Rental Rate
$4.09 $4.01 -2.0%
Quarterly Leasing Activity
3.5 msf 2.9 msf -0.6 msf
9.1 msf 10.4 msf +1.3 msf
Due to continued economic uncertainty,
expect some tenants without near-term
lease expirations to take a “wait-and-
see” approach before transacting
Leasing activity will remain lower than
pre-pandemic levels due to increasing
economic uncertainty and occupier
focus on controlling costs
With rising interest rates, more office
property distress is expected in 2023 as
many owners find themselves
underwater on their properties
Office-using job growth y-o-y Office-using job growth y-o-y (%)
Non-farm job growth y-o-y (%)
Average asking rental rate
Class A average asking rental rate Class A availability rate (%)
Total availability rate (%)
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5. 0%
10. 0%
15 .0%
20 . 0 %
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
15 0
20 1 8 20 19 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3
Number of jobs (thousands)
0.0%
5. 0%
10. 0%
15 .0%
20 . 0 %
25 . 0%
30 .0 %
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3
0.0
1.0
2. 0
3. 0
4.0
5. 0
6. 0
20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3
Square feet (millions)
5-year quarterly average
Office market braces for more property distress in
2023 as underlying fundamentals remain soft