WORLD ECONOMIC
LEAGUE TABLE 2023
A world economic league table with
forecasts for 191 countries to 2037
December 2022, 14th edition
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Contents
WORLD ECONOMIC LEAGUE TABLE 2023
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 7
League Table A to Z ................................................................................................................................................ 17
League Table by 2022 ranking ...................................................................................................................... 22
League Table by 2037 ranking ...................................................................................................................... 27
Country forecasts ........................................................................................... 32
Albania ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Algeria ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Angola ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Antigua and Barbuda ......................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Argentina ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Armenia ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Aruba ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Australia ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Austria ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Azerbaijan .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
The Bahamas ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Bahrain .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Bangladesh ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Barbados ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Belarus ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
Belgium ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Belize ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Benin................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Bhutan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52
Bolivia .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 53
Bosnia and Herzegovina ................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Botswana ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Brazil ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Brunei Darussalam ............................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Bulgaria ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Burkina Faso .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
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Burundi .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Cabo Verde ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Cambodia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Cameroon .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Canada ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Central African Republic ................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Chad ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 67
Chile .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
China ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 69
Colombia ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Comoros ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 72
Democratic Republic of the Congo .......................................................................................................................................... 73
Republic of Congo ................................................................................................................................................................................. 74
Costa Rica ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Côte d'Ivoire ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 76
Croatia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 77
Cyprus ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Czech Republic ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 79
Denmark .......................................................................................................................................................................................................80
Djibouti............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 81
Dominica ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 82
Dominican Republic ............................................................................................................................................................................ 83
Ecuador .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
Egypt................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 85
El Salvador ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 86
Equatorial Guinea .................................................................................................................................................................................. 87
Eritrea .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 88
Estonia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 89
Eswatini ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 90
Ethiopia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 91
Fiji ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 92
Finland ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 93
France ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 94
Gabon .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 95
The Gambia ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 96
Georgia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Germany ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 98
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Ghana .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 99
Greece ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 100
Grenada ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 101
Guatemala ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 102
Guinea ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 103
Guinea-Bissau ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 104
Guyana ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 105
Haiti ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 106
Honduras .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 107
Hong Kong SAR ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 108
Hungary ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 109
Iceland ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 110
India ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 111
Indonesia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 112
Islamic Republic of Iran ..................................................................................................................................................................... 113
Iraq .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 115
Ireland ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 116
Israel ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 117
Italy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 118
Jamaica ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 119
Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 120
Jordan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 121
Kazakhstan ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 122
Kenya .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 123
Kiribati ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 124
Korea ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 125
Kosovo........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 126
Kuwait ............................................................................................................................................................................................................127
Kyrgyz Republic ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 128
Lao P.D.R. .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 129
Latvia .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 130
Lesotho........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 131
Liberia............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 132
Libya ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 133
Lithuania ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 134
Luxembourg ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 135
Macao SAR .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 137
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North Macedonia.................................................................................................................................................................................. 138
Madagascar .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 139
Malawi ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 140
Malaysia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 141
Maldives ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 142
Mali .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 143
Malta .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 144
Marshall Islands ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 145
Mauritania .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 146
Mauritius ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 147
Mexico ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 148
Micronesia .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 150
Moldova ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 151
Mongolia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 152
Montenegro............................................................................................................................................................................................... 153
Morocco ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 154
Mozambique ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 155
Namibia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 157
Nauru ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 158
Nepal .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 159
Netherlands .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 160
New Zealand ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 161
Nicaragua ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 162
Niger............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 163
Nigeria .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 164
Norway ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 165
Oman............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 167
Pakistan ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 168
Palau .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 170
Panama ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
Papua New Guinea ..............................................................................................................................................................................172
Paraguay ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 173
Peru ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 174
Philippines .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 175
Poland ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 176
Portugal ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 177
Puerto Rico................................................................................................................................................................................................ 178
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Qatar .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 179
Romania ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 180
Russia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 181
Rwanda ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 183
Samoa ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 184
San Marino................................................................................................................................................................................................. 185
São Tomé and Príncipe .................................................................................................................................................................... 186
Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 187
Senegal ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 188
Serbia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 189
Seychelles ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 190
Sierra Leone ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 191
Singapore ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 192
Slovak Republic ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 193
Slovenia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 194
Solomon Islands .................................................................................................................................................................................... 195
Somalia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 196
South Africa .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 197
South Sudan ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 198
Spain .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 199
Sri Lanka ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 200
St. Kitts and Nevis ................................................................................................................................................................................. 201
St. Lucia ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 202
St. Vincent and the Grenadines ................................................................................................................................................ 203
Sudan ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 204
Suriname ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 205
Sweden ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 206
Switzerland .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 207
Taiwan Province of China .............................................................................................................................................................. 209
Tajikistan ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 210
Tanzania ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 211
Thailand ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 212
Timor-Leste ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 213
Togo ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 214
Tonga .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 215
Trinidad and Tobago .......................................................................................................................................................................... 216
Tunisia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................217
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Türkiye .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 218
Turkmenistan .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 219
Tuvalu ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 220
Uganda ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 221
Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 222
United Arab Emirates ....................................................................................................................................................................... 223
United Kingdom .................................................................................................................................................................................. 224
United States .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 226
Uruguay .......................................................................................................................................................................................................227
Uzbekistan ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 228
Vanuatu ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 229
Vietnam ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 230
West Bank and Gaza ......................................................................................................................................................................... 232
Yemen ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 233
Zambia ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 234
Zimbabwe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 235
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Introduction
This introduction sets out some of the key underlying themes in the report and some of the major
changes since last year. Our previous report struck a largely optimistic tone as the vaccination
campaign against Covid-19 was well under way globally and, despite the Omicron wave, a path out of
lockdown restrictions and back to more normal levels of economic activity seemed likely. As
predicted 12 months ago, world GDP in USD rose above $100 trillion for the first time ever in 2022
and is now projected to reach $207 trillion by the end of our forecast horizon in 2037.
A key question we asked 12 months ago was whether inflation, which had started to accelerate in
various parts of the globe in the wake of the pandemic bounce back, would be as easy to tame as
central bankers were still confidently predicting at the time. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on
24th February 2022 and the subsequent turmoil in global commodity and energy markets, price
increases saw a dramatic acceleration. Inflation has become the main economic story of the past year
and even though we are starting to see price growth decelerating in some economies, volatility in
global energy markets and entrenched core inflation suggest that it will remain front and centre in
2023 as well.
Beyond inflation and energy, this section will also cover the global transition to a greener economy
and changes to the predicted date when China will overtake the US as the largest economy, as well
as a summary of the biggest movers over the 15-year forecast horizon of this year’s WELT rankings.
Inflation becomes the dominant story
In 2022, the global economy experienced an inflationary shock of a magnitude not seen since the
start of the 1970s. After a concerted effort in the early 1980s, central bankers around the world finally
won the battle against inflation, but at the cost of deep recessions in the US and Europe. The
question for the year ahead is how painful measures to rein in inflation will be for the world economy
and if any potential economic contractions can be kept short and shallow or whether a more
prolonged reduction in demand will be required to get price growth back to more comfortable levels.
Supply chain disruptions, a lack of input materials and shifting consumer demand patterns brought
about by the pandemic were already causing price pressures in a number of sectors and economies
in 2021. This was the backdrop against which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global commodity
markets into turmoil. In 2021, Russia was the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil and largest
exporter of natural gas and Europe in particular had become increasingly reliant on its gas. Upon
Russia’s invasion, the US, UK, European Union and other allied countries condemned the aggression
and agreed on several sanction packages targeting the Russian economy. This caused global oil
prices to exceed $120 per barrel of Brent over the summer, before falling back again to around $90 in
Q4 2022, as shown in Figure 1.
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Figure 1 – Price of Brent Crude, USD (with forecast)
Source: Macrobond, Cebr forecasts
Both Russia and Ukraine are also important producers and exporters of wheat and other agricultural
products, further stoking inflationary pressures in global food prices.
The impacts of this energy price shock were felt globally, though particularly European economies
experienced a terms of trade shock as the cost of energy imports rose drastically, leading to higher
inflation, lower real incomes and a weakening in current account balances. To protect consumers and
businesses from the highly volatile market prices for energy, European governments have rolled out
various energy subsidy schemes, intervening at a large scale only months after pandemic support
programmes were wound down.
Easing supply chain pressures, falling shipping rates and lower commodity prices suggest that
inflation rates will fall back over the course of 2023. Headline inflation in the US, for example, seems
to have peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has decelerated steadily over the second half of the year, as
shown in Figure 2. Nevertheless, policy makers at the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and
the European Central Bank have all been at pains to reiterate that interest rates will need to raise
further in 2023 and that the battle against inflation is not won yet. The fact that core inflation rates,
which strip out volatile food and energy prices, have crept up across developed economies and are
several times above central banks’ inflation targets confirms that inflationary pressures have indeed
become more entrenched in the global economy, which could lead inflation expectations to become
unanchored. We, therefore, expect central bankers to stick to their guns in 2023, despite the
economic costs. This will invariably lead to relatively sizeable asset price corrections. Following a
decade of record-low interest rates, the sharp pace of monetary tightening has started to weigh on
house prices in the US and the UK. Meanwhile, global tech stocks have taken a battering in 2022, as
have crypto assets, as interest rates increased and future earnings potential were discounted more
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
2020
Jul
2020
Jan
2021
Jul
2021
Jan
2022
Jul
2022
Jan
2023
Jul
2023
Jan
2024
Jul
2024
$ per barrel Forecast
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heavily. We expect 2023 to be a challenging year for markets and downside risks are prevalent in the
housing market, where higher borrowing costs are compounded by falling real incomes and an
anticipated uptick in unemployment over the year.
Figure 2 – Consumer Price Inflation in selected countries
Source: Macrobond, Cebr analysis
Energy security in focus
In previous years, energy markets were predominantly seen through the lens of the net zero
transition and climate change. This changed in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which
forced more fundamental questions up the agenda: How can energy costs be kept affordable for
consumers and businesses? And is there enough energy to go around to keep the lights on this
winter? While fears of supply shortages and energy rationing are predominantly discussed in Europe,
the knock-on effects have been felt globally in the form of higher prices for gas and oil.
The price of oil jumped over the summer, further stoking global inflationary pressures, but has come
down since. In the US, President Biden allowed the release of 180 million barrels from the national
strategic petroleum reserve over the course of 2022, partly to help lower petrol costs for Americans.
Meanwhile, China’s zero-Covid strategy resulted in various lockdowns of major economic areas
throughout the year, supressing oil demand as its economic recovery stalled. Looking ahead, there is
considerable uncertainty regarding the future path of Chinese demand for oil, depending on the
speed of vaccine roll-out and the removal of remaining Covid restrictions. The slowdown in economic
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
UK France Germany US Japan
India China Brazil 2% target
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momentum in the rest of the world is, however, a clearly negative price signal for oil and we expect
brent crude to average $94 a barrel in 2023 before falling to below $80 a barrel in 2024.
At the end of 2022, the EU, G7 and Australia implemented a price cap on seaborne Russian oil, set at
$60 a barrel. The sanctioning countries aim to implement this ban by prohibiting domestic firms to
offer shipping, insurance, and other services to shipments of Russian-origin oil priced above the cap.
This complements an EU import ban for Russian oil that came into effect on 5 December. However,
the fact that the price cap was designed with the twin aims of reducing Russian oil revenues while
avoiding a contraction in global oil supplies, as well as the potential for Russia to evade the measures
by using insurance and shipping firms located outside the sanctioning countries, suggests that the
overall impact of the price cap will be muted.
Gas markets differ from oil, mainly because pipelines cannot be easily redirected and due to the
relative fixed supply of liquefied natural gas at the global level, at least in the short term. European
countries have scrambled to secure alternative gas supplies from around the world in response to
Russia’s decision to drastically reduce pipeline gas exports. This has meant greater competition in
world markets for a limited supply of LNG, causing the drastic spike in prices seen throughout the
year. Through a combination of demand reduction and their financial capacity to pay for higher prices,
EU countries have successfully managed to fill up their gas storages ahead of winter, though a
residual risk of shortages remains. Unfortunately, things are not looking much better for 2023, and
notably the coming winter, as European countries will need to prepare themselves to pay
substantially more for energy than what they have become accustomed to. In the longer run, this has
the potential to change the industrial structure of the continent should energy-intensive companies
no longer be able to compete with firms who have access to cheaper energy, e.g. in the US or in parts
of Asia.
Will China’s economy ever overtake that of the US?
Until recently this question seemed unnecessary – of course China would overtake the US, and
probably quite soon. China’s population is 4.2 times that of the United States so when GDP per capita
reaches a quarter of that in the US, by simple mathematics China will have higher GDP than the US.
But various headwinds – adverse demographics as China’s labour force growth goes into reverse (we
expect an annual decline of 0.5% over the forecast period), slowing productivity growth, the
encumbrance of high debt levels leading to collapsing property companies and the damaging effects
of lockdowns needed to enforce the zero covid policy (which nevertheless failed to prevent what
looks to be a devastating wave of infections this winter) – are leading some economic commentators
(for example editorials and op-eds in the Economist and the Financial Times) to surmise that this
particular ‘il sorpasso’ may never actually take place.
We estimate that China’s dollar GDP in 2022 was 73% of that in the US. We expect Chinese annual
growth to slow gradually to 3% in the medium term. We also expect China’s cost of living (currently
61% of the US level) to rise gradually. So on this basis, although China is not forecast to hit its
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government’s growth target of becoming a medium level developed economy by 2035, we do
expect it to be larger than the US before the end of our forecast period in 2037. We think that China’s
scale means that its economy is different from many smaller economies that have found it hard to
escape the middle income trap. And while China’s sheer size and political significance mean that its
exports to the West are likely to be constrained, it has a sufficiently large internal market to offset
many of the disadvantages of this.
When will China’s economy overtake? With China’s growth slowing and the US remaining robust,
there is likely to be quite a long period where the two economies are very close to each other in size
and a relatively small adjustment to a growth forecast (or indeed a small revision to a base level of
GDP) could change the ‘il sorpasso’ year fairly considerably. But our current prediction is that China
overtakes the US in 2036.
Does this matter? Not really. Given the uncertainty about the base data and the differences in the
structures of the two economies, the actual overtaking means very little. The fact that the two
economies are likely to be of similar orders of magnitude for a long time means rather more. And of
course, eventually in the latter part of the current century they are both likely to be joined by India as
a third economic superpower.
If China invades Taiwan…
We do however believe that there is one set of circumstances that might inhibit China’s overtaking of
the US.
In his opening speech to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) President
Xi has vowed to ‘take back’ Taiwan. He has stated clearly that while he would prefer this to happen by
peaceful means, he would not rule out the use of force. This reaffirms what has been known to be
Chinese policy for some while. However, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are
renewed fears that an attempt could be made using force in the not-too-distant future.
It seems improbable that if this were to happen the West could stand by without taking some
retaliatory action. At one level, the US would be likely to transfer high tech arms to Taiwan as has
been done in Ukraine. At another level, economic sanctions on China would be likely – again the
Ukraine template has shown that the West is willing to disconnect with a country that is seen to be
disrupting the world order even at considerable cost to itself. It would seem silly to have gone to such
lengths over the Russian invasion of Ukraine but stand idly by while China acts on a much bigger
scale.
If such trade action does take place, both the world economy and the Chinese economy would be
affected. China exported 20.0% of GDP in 2021 of which half went to Asia, and just over 20% each to
the US and Europe. If you include those Asian countries with a Western orientation, it is likely that
complete trade sanctions on China would leave 15% of Chinese GDP exposed.
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Obviously, the loss of Chinese imports would damage the countries that are reliant on them and
hugely disrupt global supply chains. For many Western companies, China is also an important export
market which cannot be easily replaced. The consequences of economic warfare between China and
the West would therefore be several times more severe than what we have seen following Russia’s
attack on Ukraine. There would almost certainly be quite a sharp world recession and a resurgence of
inflation. But the damage to China would be many times greater and this could well torpedo any
attempt to lead the world economy.
We assume that the Chinese, who have often showed that they have some of the world’s most
competent officials working in their bureaucracy, know this. And so we think it is more likely than not
that they will limit any action they take against Taiwan. But sometimes unchallenged leaders get
tempted by grandiose ambitions or try to engage in foreign adventures to distract from problems at
home. We hope that this does not happen.
The environmental consequences of growth
The COP26 conference in Glasgow highlighted the problem of climate change and secured a series
of commitments from different countries on a range of subjects. Especially important were the
commitments to carbon reduction. The subsequent COP27 conference in Cairo last year achieved
less, though a fund to help poor countries (especially small island nations) cope with the
consequences of climate change was agreed.
But in reality decarbonisation is now a critical element of most countries’ growth strategies. Although
the high energy prices associated with the invasion of Ukraine have given a temporary extension to
the use of some fossil fuels, these prices have also made renewables significantly more economic. In
addition, the new focus on energy security (see above) means that countries will wish to become less
dependent on imported fossil fuels which in many cases will further promote use of domestic
renewables.
Our model is predicting cumulative output growth of 46.9% from 2022 to 2037. If carbon emissions
were proportional to GDP this would imply an equivalent percentage rise in emissions. In practice,
there is considerable controversy about the link between GDP and emissions. The environmental
Kuznets curve (EKC) theory suggests that above a certain level of GDP per capita, emissions start to
decline even if economies continue to grow. Unfortunately, empirical research suggests that this
level at which emissions decline stands around $80,000 of GDP per capita
1
at 2016 prices
2
. Our
forecasts show world GDP per capita rising from $11,879 at 2016 prices to $15,393 at the same price
level so well below the turning point for the EKC.
1
Is there a relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions? Jenny Cederborg & Sara Snöbohm.
Södertörns University | Institution of Social Sciences Stockholm 2016
2
P18 op cit
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This means that reduction in emissions growth, let alone the absolute level of emissions will not
happen naturally and will have to be encouraged by policy.
In practice most of the world has now adopted such policies, though doubts remain about the fervour
with which they will be applied and enforced. And even if the announced policies are adopted, the
link between carbon emissions and climate change is sufficiently uncertain that a climate catastrophe
cannot be ruled out.
However, even after taking into account the currently proposed actions, the central forecast of IPCC
scientists is that the world will warm by around 1.5°C by 2040 (compared with pre industrial levels) -
a change in temperature that is expected to take us beyond the likely tipping point at which climate
change could become self-reinforcing.
They conclude
3
that:
Near-term warming and increased frequency, severity and duration of extreme events will
place many terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems at high or very high risks of
biodiversity loss (medium to very high confidence, depending on ecosystem).
Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate to high in forest ecosystems (medium
confidence), kelp and seagrass ecosystems(high to very high confidence), and high to very
high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) and warm-water coral reefs
(very high confidence). Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal
settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to
submergence and loss (medium confidence).
Such changes themselves will have an impact on health and on economic performance.
So we conclude that despite considerable policy effort, there are likely to be more extreme weather
conditions, melting of polar ice caps and other glaciers, and rising sea levels that will create
difficulties for low lying areas.
The top risers and fallers in this year’s ranking
Looking at the countries making the biggest jumps in the WELT rankings based on our projections for
the 15-year period ahead, we see that two groups of countries stand out. For a handful of developing
economies, natural resources will deliver a substantial boost to GDP growth in the coming years.
Other countries are focussing more on working their way up the global value chain through smart
reforms and investing in the skills of their workforce.
3
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 2022
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In our report, we highlight the countries that have pledged – or written into law in some cases – a
move towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions and reducing their carbon footprint. However, in
the interim, while the global economy readies itself for this fundamental change through
electrification and the mass deployment of renewable energy sources, fossil fuels will continue to
play an important role in our energy mix. Niger will start exporting oil through a new pipeline from
mid-2023 onwards, helping the country gain a projected 23 spots in the WELT ranking and reach 113th
position by 2037. Likewise, proceeds from the production and sale of oil have been the main drivers
of Guyana’s economy since 2020, causing an expected jump of 58% in its GDP in 2022. By 2037, we
expect the South American country to have climbed 18 positions in the WELT ranking tables, putting it
at 117th position. Mozambique is projected to make similar gains on the back of LNG sales, rising to
106th. In cases where natural resource extraction has such a large impact on GDP, there are several
downside risks that need to be managed. Economies can become less competitive as the revenue
from natural resources artificially pushes up the exchange rate. The effects of the so-called ‘Dutch
disease’ can also include severe misallocations of capital as investment in the extractive sectors
crowds out other productive parts of the economy, leaving national output dangerously lopsided.
A different growth story can be seen in the rankings for countries who improve their standing by
finding a niche in the global value chain, by implementing domestic reforms, and/or by improving
labour productivity by mobilising both private and public capital. Bangladesh and Vietnam are prime
examples of this approach to fostering more sustainable economic growth, resulting in
improvements of 14 and 13 places, respectively, by 2037. This will see Bangladesh become a Top 20
economy by 2035, while Vietnam is projected to rise to 26th by the end of our forecast horizon. The
Philippines is also projected to continue its growth run in the coming years, fuelled by electronics
manufacturing, lifting the country from 38th spot in the ranking as of 2022 to 27th by 2037.
The biggest drop in the WELT ranking is projected for Equatorial Guinea, which is struggling to offset
the medium-term decline in its oil production sector, causing the country to slide 23 places to stand
at 154th position in 2037. Other countries predicted to drop down the rankings include Haiti (-20
places), El Salvador (-18 places) and Belarus (-18 places).
Further up the rankings, the economies of Iran and Russia are expected to suffer from international
isolation and further sanctions. Iran has climbed the WELT rankings in recent years due to a
combination of high domestic inflation and a system of capital and currency controls. In the long run,
we expect the currency to devalue against the dollar, causing the Islamic Republic to lose 10 places
by 2037, falling back to 21st in the ranking.
Although the Russian economy is expected to have contracted in 2022, a combination of domestic
inflation and an overall appreciating currency are set to have seen the country rise in the WELT
rankings from 11th place in 2021 to 9th place. However, the country’s growth prospects deteriorated
substantially following its invasion of Ukraine, while Cebr expects the ruble to lose its value against
the dollar over the years ahead.
15
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Trade with Europe has slowed substantially throughout 2022 and while closer relations to India and
China can offset this to some degree, in the long run we expect a Russian economy starved of
Western machinery and tech imports to perform significantly worse. The war itself also weighs on
Russian economic output in various ways, not least through a brain drain effect of large numbers of
often well-educated men emigrating to avoid mobilisation orders. In terms of income derived from
fossil fuel exports, Russia benefitted from the increase in world market prices, which has meant that
total export revenues are expected to have increased in 2022 despites lower trading volumes. We
expect Russia to be able to mostly offset losses in market share in Europe and North America
through increased trade with China, India, Turkey and other friendly countries, though this will be
more easily done for oil than for gas, as the pipeline infrastructure largely determines who can buy
Russian gas. With these developments in mind, Russia is expected to lose five places in the WELT
rankings over the next 15 years, dropping to 14th place by 2037.
As depicted in Figure 3, by 2037, we expect that under a fifth (19.4%) of global dollar GDP will be
accounted for by Europe. This compares to an expected 21.9% in 2022 and over a third (33.8%) 15
years ago. By contrast, the picture for East Asian economies is almost exactly the reverse, with the
share held by such economies expected to almost double from 19.5% to 33.7% over this 30-year
horizon. Meanwhile, South Asia’s share is expected to expand by the largest relative amount, almost
tripling from 2.7% in 2007 to 7.2% in 2037.
Figure 3 – Regional share of current price dollar GDP (forecast from 2022)
Source: IMF, Cebr forecasts and analysis
34%
26%
24%
22%
21%
20%
19%
6%
7%
6%
8%
7%
7%
7%
5%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
9%
21%
28%
30%
31%
35%
35%
35%
6%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
27%
24%
26%
27%
25%
24%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
North America
Latin America
East Asia and Pacific
Central and South Asia
Middle East and Africa
Europe
16
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Energy crisis and home-made problems for the UK
For European countries, the energy crisis has had several negative implications, many of which are
likely to persist throughout 2023. While the initial inflationary shock is starting to slowly subside, we
expect the focus to shift towards the implications of higher energy prices for public finances and the
global competitiveness of European businesses. This is also reflected in our forecast for the region,
which has been shifted down compared to the previous year.
While higher energy prices have been a shared experience across European countries, the UK also
suffered from a highly volatile political environment in 2022, reaching its peak in the 45-day
Premiership of Liz Truss. Her ambitious ‘Plan for Growth’ amounted to a significant fiscal loosening in
an attempt to stimulate growth via higher borrowing. However, the following administration under
Rishi Sunak reversed almost all the announced policies and announced a return to public spending
restraint.
The upshot of this tumultuous time is that the near-term growth outlook for the UK has weakened
substantially, with economic growth now expected to average 1.6% between 2022 and 2026, down
from our forecast of 2.4% last year. In the outer years of our forecast horizon, we saw the UK
economy growing at 1.8% per annum last year, while this has now also fallen to just 1.6%. Some of
this downgrade is of course due to the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, but an absence of growth-
oriented policies and the ongoing lack of a clear vision of how the country will find its role outside of
the European Union have also contributed to our more pessimistic assessment of the UK economic
outlook. Between 2022 and 2037, we expect the UK’s share of the world economy in nominal US
dollars to fall by 11.8%, in line with the decline seen among the rest of Europe (-11.7%).
Conclusions
The changes in this year’s Cebr World Economic League Table are amongst the largest we have
made in the 14 years that we have been producing the report.
After about 50 years of opening up, China now looks again to be turning in on itself which is likely to
hold back its performance much in the same ways as in the past. Meanwhile India now seems
unstoppable in its momentum to become the third economic superpower. In 2035 we forecast that
India will become the third $10 trillion economy. Although there are political factors that could hold
India back, it has demographics on its side.
Although our forecast for the UK’s ranking doesn’t show any change, our underlying forecasts are
much more pessimistic. Underpinning this is the expectation of much higher taxes to pay for the
collapse in productivity in the public sector. Whereas before we expected UK growth to exceed that in
the rest of Europe, now we expect it to be much the same.
Although we still expect the world to grow, the tone of this report is much more pessimistic than
those of its predecessors. The instability evidenced by the war in Ukraine and increasing international
tensions provide an unpromising background.
17
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
League Table A to Z
Ranking out of 191
2007
2012
2017
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Afghanistan
129
110
114
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Albania
117
129
130
122
122
126
128
128
Algeria
51
48
54
56
56
57
58
59
Angola
64
60
58
61
60
69
66
68
Antigua and Barbuda
169
174
178
173
173
174
174
174
Argentina
31
21
21
24
33
32
35
36
Armenia
124
137
136
118
115
130
129
129
Aruba
157
162
163
161
160
162
163
166
Australia
15
12
13
14
14
13
13
13
Austria
26
30
28
33
32
37
39
40
Azerbaijan
83
68
93
78
82
88
89
92
The Bahamas
118
136
133
139
139
141
145
148
Bahrain
95
97
98
93
93
98
100
101
Bangladesh
57
58
42
34
35
26
24
20
Barbados
145
154
153
153
153
155
156
158
Belarus
71
70
81
79
74
86
90
97
Belgium
20
25
25
26
24
28
33
37
Belize
164
167
167
163
163
165
167
170
Benin
132
135
132
126
126
120
114
109
Bhutan
174
169
166
164
164
163
162
161
Bolivia
111
101
96
94
92
94
97
100
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
107
115
115
113
114
116
119
121
Botswana
119
123
119
125
127
122
123
123
Brazil
10
7
8
12
11
8
8
8
Brunei Darussalam
110
111
135
119
124
136
134
134
Bulgaria
72
78
79
70
71
76
77
77
Burkina Faso
137
126
124
123
121
118
116
112
Burundi
166
165
162
160
159
160
160
160
Cabo Verde
165
170
171
170
171
166
166
164
Cambodia
128
122
111
106
104
103
102
94
Cameroon
91
98
97
92
94
90
87
87
Canada
9
10
10
8
8
10
10
10
Central African
Republic
163
163
168
166
166
164
164
165
Chad
127
128
142
142
142
143
142
142
Chile
45
38
44
45
47
45
46
46
18
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
China
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
Colombia
39
33
41
44
46
42
41
38
Comoros
175
179
180
177
178
177
176
175
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
106
99
95
84
79
78
74
72
Republic of Congo
125
113
140
137
136
139
140
138
Costa Rica
87
83
77
83
78
77
76
76
Côte d'Ivoire
85
92
84
81
83
71
65
65
Croatia
65
74
80
80
84
80
80
82
Cyprus
90
104
109
111
110
110
109
111
Czech Republic
41
49
48
47
45
47
47
48
Denmark
29
34
38
40
40
43
43
43
Djibouti
171
168
164
159
158
158
158
156
Dominica
184
185
185
183
183
183
183
183
Dominican Republic
73
71
68
66
61
64
63
62
Ecuador
68
65
62
63
65
65
70
73
Egypt
50
37
46
37
42
36
34
31
El Salvador
105
108
105
102
101
105
112
120
Equatorial Guinea
112
106
134
131
137
149
152
154
Eritrea
173
166
170
168
165
169
169
171
Estonia
92
105
102
100
98
100
99
99
Eswatini
155
153
157
156
156
156
157
159
Ethiopia
99
89
69
64
68
61
59
55
Fiji
152
155
152
155
155
154
154
152
Finland
36
42
45
49
49
50
51
52
France
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
Gabon
114
116
122
115
116
124
125
126
The Gambia
170
173
175
169
168
167
165
163
Georgia
120
118
117
112
109
114
110
108
Germany
4
4
4
4
3
5
5
5
Ghana
82
75
78
85
90
79
72
66
Greece
30
44
52
55
55
54
55
57
Grenada
176
181
179
178
177
178
178
178
Guatemala
81
79
70
69
69
68
67
70
Guinea
139
147
141
116
113
125
124
122
Guinea-Bissau
177
178
177
175
175
173
171
168
Guyana
158
157
155
135
128
113
115
117
Haiti
123
124
121
120
125
132
137
140
Honduras
115
112
108
103
100
104
105
105
Hong Kong SAR
38
39
35
42
41
44
44
45
19
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Hungary
49
59
57
58
58
56
56
58
Iceland
96
121
106
110
111
108
113
118
India
12
11
6
5
5
4
3
3
Indonesia
21
16
16
17
17
14
12
11
Islamic Republic of
Iran
27
29
26
11
12
21
20
21
Iraq
59
46
53
48
48
49
49
49
Ireland
32
45
37
28
26
27
27
28
Israel
42
40
33
27
27
30
31
32
Italy
7
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
Jamaica
113
120
123
127
123
131
136
139
Japan
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
Jordan
103
95
92
89
88
91
92
91
Kazakhstan
54
50
55
53
52
53
53
53
Kenya
80
76
66
65
64
62
60
60
Kiribati
190
190
191
189
189
189
189
189
Korea
13
14
11
13
13
9
9
9
Kosovo
143
150
148
148
148
148
149
149
Kuwait
53
56
59
57
57
59
62
63
Kyrgyz Republic
150
149
146
145
145
147
148
147
Lao P.D.R.
144
139
116
133
138
117
118
116
Latvia
84
100
100
98
97
99
98
98
Lebanon
89
85
83
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Lesotho
162
164
165
165
167
168
172
173
Liberia
167
161
161
158
157
159
159
157
Libya
63
64
71
97
95
92
91
88
Lithuania
78
88
88
82
81
81
81
80
Luxembourg
67
72
72
71
72
74
79
81
Macao SAR
100
87
85
114
105
93
95
95
North Macedonia
131
140
138
138
135
138
138
136
Madagascar
130
133
129
132
132
128
127
127
Malawi
140
144
145
143
144
142
139
137
Malaysia
40
35
40
41
39
38
36
35
Maldives
161
160
156
152
151
151
150
150
Mali
133
127
120
121
119
119
117
114
Malta
135
141
126
128
129
129
130
132
Marshall Islands
188
191
190
187
187
188
188
188
Mauritania
147
148
149
147
147
145
144
143
Mauritius
134
132
127
144
141
135
135
135
Mexico
14
15
15
15
15
16
15
15
20
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Micronesia
186
187
188
186
186
186
186
186
Moldova
146
143
143
134
133
137
133
131
Mongolia
148
130
137
129
131
127
126
125
Montenegro
153
156
154
151
152
153
153
153
Morocco
60
61
60
59
59
60
61
61
Mozambique
121
119
128
124
117
115
106
106
Myanmar
102
73
75
88
87
83
83
84
Namibia
126
125
131
141
143
140
141
146
Nauru
192
192
192
190
190
190
190
190
Nepal
116
107
101
101
99
96
93
89
Netherlands
16
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
New Zealand
52
55
51
52
53
52
52
51
Nicaragua
138
138
125
130
130
133
132
133
Niger
142
142
139
136
134
123
121
113
Nigeria
34
27
32
32
29
29
30
30
Norway
25
23
29
30
31
35
40
41
Oman
69
66
67
68
67
67
68
71
Pakistan
46
43
36
43
43
40
37
34
Palau
187
189
189
188
188
187
187
187
Panama
98
90
74
77
77
73
78
78
Papua New Guinea
122
109
110
104
102
107
108
110
Paraguay
101
94
94
96
96
95
96
96
Peru
55
52
49
51
51
48
48
47
Philippines
47
41
39
38
37
34
29
27
Poland
22
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
Portugal
37
47
47
50
50
51
50
50
Puerto Rico
58
62
63
62
62
66
73
74
Qatar
62
53
56
54
54
55
54
54
Romania
44
57
50
46
44
46
45
44
Russia
11
8
12
9
9
12
14
14
Rwanda
149
145
144
140
140
134
131
130
Samoa
181
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
San Marino
159
171
174
174
176
175
177
177
São Tomé and
Príncipe
189
188
187
184
184
185
184
184
Saudi Arabia
23
19
20
18
18
18
18
18
Senegal
109
114
113
109
108
102
103
102
Serbia
75
86
90
86
85
84
82
79
Seychelles
172
177
173
172
170
170
168
169
Sierra Leone
160
159
158
157
161
157
155
155
Singapore
43
36
34
35
34
39
38
39
21
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Slovak Republic
61
63
64
67
63
63
64
64
Slovenia
70
84
87
87
86
85
84
83
Solomon Islands
180
175
176
176
174
176
175
176
Somalia
n/a
158
151
149
149
150
147
141
South Africa
28
28
31
36
38
41
42
42
South Sudan
n/a
134
160
154
154
152
151
151
Spain
8
13
14
16
16
15
16
16
Sri Lanka
79
67
65
75
80
75
75
75
St. Kitts and Nevis
179
180
181
179
179
179
179
179
St. Lucia
168
172
169
171
169
172
173
172
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
178
184
184
181
180
180
180
180
Sudan
66
81
86
95
103
101
94
90
Suriname
156
151
159
162
162
161
161
162
Sweden
18
22
23
25
25
25
26
29
Switzerland
19
20
19
22
20
20
21
24
Taiwan Province of
China
24
26
22
21
21
22
22
23
Tajikistan
151
146
147
146
146
144
143
144
Tanzania
94
91
82
73
73
70
69
67
Thailand
33
31
27
31
30
24
25
25
Timor-Leste
182
176
172
167
172
171
170
167
Togo
154
152
150
150
150
146
146
145
Tonga
185
186
186
185
185
184
185
185
Trinidad and Tobago
93
102
107
105
107
112
122
124
Tunisia
76
82
91
90
91
97
101
103
Türkiye
17
17
17
20
22
17
17
17
Turkmenistan
74
80
89
74
75
87
88
93
Tuvalu
191
193
193
191
191
191
191
191
Uganda
104
96
99
91
89
89
86
85
Ukraine
48
54
61
60
66
58
57
56
United Arab Emirates
35
32
30
29
28
31
32
33
United Kingdom
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
United States
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
Uruguay
88
77
73
76
76
82
85
86
Uzbekistan
86
69
76
72
70
72
71
69
Vanuatu
183
183
183
180
181
181
181
181
Vietnam
56
51
43
39
36
33
28
26
West Bank and Gaza
141
131
118
117
120
121
120
119
Yemen
97
93
103
107
112
111
107
107
Zambia
108
103
104
108
106
106
104
104
Zimbabwe
136
117
112
99
118
109
111
115
22
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
League Table by 2022 ranking
Ranking out of 191
2007
2012
2017
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
United States
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
China
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
Japan
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
Germany
4
4
4
4
3
5
5
5
India
12
11
6
5
5
4
3
3
United Kingdom
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
France
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
Canada
9
10
10
8
8
10
10
10
Russia
11
8
12
9
9
12
14
14
Italy
7
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
Islamic Republic of
Iran
27
29
26
11
12
21
20
21
Brazil
10
7
8
12
11
8
8
8
Korea
13
14
11
13
13
9
9
9
Australia
15
12
13
14
14
13
13
13
Mexico
14
15
15
15
15
16
15
15
Spain
8
13
14
16
16
15
16
16
Indonesia
21
16
16
17
17
14
12
11
Saudi Arabia
23
19
20
18
18
18
18
18
Netherlands
16
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
Türkiye
17
17
17
20
22
17
17
17
Taiwan Province of
China
24
26
22
21
21
22
22
23
Switzerland
19
20
19
22
20
20
21
24
Poland
22
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
Argentina
31
21
21
24
33
32
35
36
Sweden
18
22
23
25
25
25
26
29
Belgium
20
25
25
26
24
28
33
37
Israel
42
40
33
27
27
30
31
32
Ireland
32
45
37
28
26
27
27
28
United Arab Emirates
35
32
30
29
28
31
32
33
Norway
25
23
29
30
31
35
40
41
Thailand
33
31
27
31
30
24
25
25
Nigeria
34
27
32
32
29
29
30
30
Austria
26
30
28
33
32
37
39
40
Bangladesh
57
58
42
34
35
26
24
20
Singapore
43
36
34
35
34
39
38
39
23
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
South Africa
28
28
31
36
38
41
42
42
Egypt
50
37
46
37
42
36
34
31
Philippines
47
41
39
38
37
34
29
27
Vietnam
56
51
43
39
36
33
28
26
Denmark
29
34
38
40
40
43
43
43
Malaysia
40
35
40
41
39
38
36
35
Hong Kong SAR
38
39
35
42
41
44
44
45
Pakistan
46
43
36
43
43
40
37
34
Colombia
39
33
41
44
46
42
41
38
Chile
45
38
44
45
47
45
46
46
Romania
44
57
50
46
44
46
45
44
Czech Republic
41
49
48
47
45
47
47
48
Iraq
59
46
53
48
48
49
49
49
Finland
36
42
45
49
49
50
51
52
Portugal
37
47
47
50
50
51
50
50
Peru
55
52
49
51
51
48
48
47
New Zealand
52
55
51
52
53
52
52
51
Kazakhstan
54
50
55
53
52
53
53
53
Qatar
62
53
56
54
54
55
54
54
Greece
30
44
52
55
55
54
55
57
Algeria
51
48
54
56
56
57
58
59
Kuwait
53
56
59
57
57
59
62
63
Hungary
49
59
57
58
58
56
56
58
Morocco
60
61
60
59
59
60
61
61
Ukraine
48
54
61
60
66
58
57
56
Angola
64
60
58
61
60
69
66
68
Puerto Rico
58
62
63
62
62
66
73
74
Ecuador
68
65
62
63
65
65
70
73
Ethiopia
99
89
69
64
68
61
59
55
Kenya
80
76
66
65
64
62
60
60
Dominican Republic
73
71
68
66
61
64
63
62
Slovak Republic
61
63
64
67
63
63
64
64
Oman
69
66
67
68
67
67
68
71
Guatemala
81
79
70
69
69
68
67
70
Bulgaria
72
78
79
70
71
76
77
77
Luxembourg
67
72
72
71
72
74
79
81
Uzbekistan
86
69
76
72
70
72
71
69
Tanzania
94
91
82
73
73
70
69
67
Turkmenistan
74
80
89
74
75
87
88
93
24
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sri Lanka
79
67
65
75
80
75
75
75
Uruguay
88
77
73
76
76
82
85
86
Panama
98
90
74
77
77
73
78
78
Azerbaijan
83
68
93
78
82
88
89
92
Belarus
71
70
81
79
74
86
90
97
Croatia
65
74
80
80
84
80
80
82
Côte d'Ivoire
85
92
84
81
83
71
65
65
Lithuania
78
88
88
82
81
81
81
80
Costa Rica
87
83
77
83
78
77
76
76
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
106
99
95
84
79
78
74
72
Ghana
82
75
78
85
90
79
72
66
Serbia
75
86
90
86
85
84
82
79
Slovenia
70
84
87
87
86
85
84
83
Myanmar
102
73
75
88
87
83
83
84
Jordan
103
95
92
89
88
91
92
91
Tunisia
76
82
91
90
91
97
101
103
Uganda
104
96
99
91
89
89
86
85
Cameroon
91
98
97
92
94
90
87
87
Bahrain
95
97
98
93
93
98
100
101
Bolivia
111
101
96
94
92
94
97
100
Sudan
66
81
86
95
103
101
94
90
Paraguay
101
94
94
96
96
95
96
96
Libya
63
64
71
97
95
92
91
88
Latvia
84
100
100
98
97
99
98
98
Zimbabwe
136
117
112
99
118
109
111
115
Estonia
92
105
102
100
98
100
99
99
Nepal
116
107
101
101
99
96
93
89
El Salvador
105
108
105
102
101
105
112
120
Honduras
115
112
108
103
100
104
105
105
Papua New Guinea
122
109
110
104
102
107
108
110
Trinidad and Tobago
93
102
107
105
107
112
122
124
Cambodia
128
122
111
106
104
103
102
94
Yemen
97
93
103
107
112
111
107
107
Zambia
108
103
104
108
106
106
104
104
Senegal
109
114
113
109
108
102
103
102
Iceland
96
121
106
110
111
108
113
118
Cyprus
90
104
109
111
110
110
109
111
Georgia
120
118
117
112
109
114
110
108
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
107
115
115
113
114
116
119
121
25
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Macao SAR
100
87
85
114
105
93
95
95
Gabon
114
116
122
115
116
124
125
126
Guinea
139
147
141
116
113
125
124
122
West Bank and Gaza
141
131
118
117
120
121
120
119
Armenia
124
137
136
118
115
130
129
129
Brunei Darussalam
110
111
135
119
124
136
134
134
Haiti
123
124
121
120
125
132
137
140
Mali
133
127
120
121
119
119
117
114
Albania
117
129
130
122
122
126
128
128
Burkina Faso
137
126
124
123
121
118
116
112
Mozambique
121
119
128
124
117
115
106
106
Botswana
119
123
119
125
127
122
123
123
Benin
132
135
132
126
126
120
114
109
Jamaica
113
120
123
127
123
131
136
139
Malta
135
141
126
128
129
129
130
132
Mongolia
148
130
137
129
131
127
126
125
Nicaragua
138
138
125
130
130
133
132
133
Equatorial Guinea
112
106
134
131
137
149
152
154
Madagascar
130
133
129
132
132
128
127
127
Lao P.D.R.
144
139
116
133
138
117
118
116
Moldova
146
143
143
134
133
137
133
131
Guyana
158
157
155
135
128
113
115
117
Niger
142
142
139
136
134
123
121
113
Republic of Congo
125
113
140
137
136
139
140
138
North Macedonia
131
140
138
138
135
138
138
136
The Bahamas
118
136
133
139
139
141
145
148
Rwanda
149
145
144
140
140
134
131
130
Namibia
126
125
131
141
143
140
141
146
Chad
127
128
142
142
142
143
142
142
Malawi
140
144
145
143
144
142
139
137
Mauritius
134
132
127
144
141
135
135
135
Kyrgyz Republic
150
149
146
145
145
147
148
147
Tajikistan
151
146
147
146
146
144
143
144
Mauritania
147
148
149
147
147
145
144
143
Kosovo
143
150
148
148
148
148
149
149
Somalia
n/a
158
151
149
149
150
147
141
Togo
154
152
150
150
150
146
146
145
Montenegro
153
156
154
151
152
153
153
153
Maldives
161
160
156
152
151
151
150
150
26
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Barbados
145
154
153
153
153
155
156
158
South Sudan
n/a
134
160
154
154
152
151
151
Fiji
152
155
152
155
155
154
154
152
Eswatini
155
153
157
156
156
156
157
159
Sierra Leone
160
159
158
157
161
157
155
155
Liberia
167
161
161
158
157
159
159
157
Djibouti
171
168
164
159
158
158
158
156
Burundi
166
165
162
160
159
160
160
160
Aruba
157
162
163
161
160
162
163
166
Suriname
156
151
159
162
162
161
161
162
Belize
164
167
167
163
163
165
167
170
Bhutan
174
169
166
164
164
163
162
161
Lesotho
162
164
165
165
167
168
172
173
Central African
Republic
163
163
168
166
166
164
164
165
Timor-Leste
182
176
172
167
172
171
170
167
Eritrea
173
166
170
168
165
169
169
171
The Gambia
170
173
175
169
168
167
165
163
Cabo Verde
165
170
171
170
171
166
166
164
St. Lucia
168
172
169
171
169
172
173
172
Seychelles
172
177
173
172
170
170
168
169
Antigua and Barbuda
169
174
178
173
173
174
174
174
San Marino
159
171
174
174
176
175
177
177
Guinea-Bissau
177
178
177
175
175
173
171
168
Solomon Islands
180
175
176
176
174
176
175
176
Comoros
175
179
180
177
178
177
176
175
Grenada
176
181
179
178
177
178
178
178
St. Kitts and Nevis
179
180
181
179
179
179
179
179
Vanuatu
183
183
183
180
181
181
181
181
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
178
184
184
181
180
180
180
180
Samoa
181
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
Dominica
184
185
185
183
183
183
183
183
São Tomé and
Príncipe
189
188
187
184
184
185
184
184
Tonga
185
186
186
185
185
184
185
185
Micronesia
186
187
188
186
186
186
186
186
Marshall Islands
188
191
190
187
187
188
188
188
Palau
187
189
189
188
188
187
187
187
Kiribati
190
190
191
189
189
189
189
189
Nauru
192
192
192
190
190
190
190
190
Tuvalu
191
193
193
191
191
191
191
191
27
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
League Table by 2037 ranking
Ranking out of 191
2007
2012
2017
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
China
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
United States
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
India
12
11
6
5
5
4
3
3
Japan
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
Germany
4
4
4
4
3
5
5
5
United Kingdom
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
France
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
Brazil
10
7
8
12
11
8
8
8
Korea
13
14
11
13
13
9
9
9
Canada
9
10
10
8
8
10
10
10
Indonesia
21
16
16
17
17
14
12
11
Italy
7
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
Australia
15
12
13
14
14
13
13
13
Russia
11
8
12
9
9
12
14
14
Mexico
14
15
15
15
15
16
15
15
Spain
8
13
14
16
16
15
16
16
Türkiye
17
17
17
20
22
17
17
17
Saudi Arabia
23
19
20
18
18
18
18
18
Netherlands
16
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
Bangladesh
57
58
42
34
35
26
24
20
Islamic Republic of
Iran
27
29
26
11
12
21
20
21
Poland
22
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
Taiwan Province of
China
24
26
22
21
21
22
22
23
Switzerland
19
20
19
22
20
20
21
24
Thailand
33
31
27
31
30
24
25
25
Vietnam
56
51
43
39
36
33
28
26
Philippines
47
41
39
38
37
34
29
27
Ireland
32
45
37
28
26
27
27
28
Sweden
18
22
23
25
25
25
26
29
Nigeria
34
27
32
32
29
29
30
30
Egypt
50
37
46
37
42
36
34
31
Israel
42
40
33
27
27
30
31
32
United Arab Emirates
35
32
30
29
28
31
32
33
Pakistan
46
43
36
43
43
40
37
34
Malaysia
40
35
40
41
39
38
36
35
28
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Argentina
31
21
21
24
33
32
35
36
Belgium
20
25
25
26
24
28
33
37
Colombia
39
33
41
44
46
42
41
38
Singapore
43
36
34
35
34
39
38
39
Austria
26
30
28
33
32
37
39
40
Norway
25
23
29
30
31
35
40
41
South Africa
28
28
31
36
38
41
42
42
Denmark
29
34
38
40
40
43
43
43
Romania
44
57
50
46
44
46
45
44
Hong Kong SAR
38
39
35
42
41
44
44
45
Chile
45
38
44
45
47
45
46
46
Peru
55
52
49
51
51
48
48
47
Czech Republic
41
49
48
47
45
47
47
48
Iraq
59
46
53
48
48
49
49
49
Portugal
37
47
47
50
50
51
50
50
New Zealand
52
55
51
52
53
52
52
51
Finland
36
42
45
49
49
50
51
52
Kazakhstan
54
50
55
53
52
53
53
53
Qatar
62
53
56
54
54
55
54
54
Ethiopia
99
89
69
64
68
61
59
55
Ukraine
48
54
61
60
66
58
57
56
Greece
30
44
52
55
55
54
55
57
Hungary
49
59
57
58
58
56
56
58
Algeria
51
48
54
56
56
57
58
59
Kenya
80
76
66
65
64
62
60
60
Morocco
60
61
60
59
59
60
61
61
Dominican Republic
73
71
68
66
61
64
63
62
Kuwait
53
56
59
57
57
59
62
63
Slovak Republic
61
63
64
67
63
63
64
64
Côte d'Ivoire
85
92
84
81
83
71
65
65
Ghana
82
75
78
85
90
79
72
66
Tanzania
94
91
82
73
73
70
69
67
Angola
64
60
58
61
60
69
66
68
Uzbekistan
86
69
76
72
70
72
71
69
Guatemala
81
79
70
69
69
68
67
70
Oman
69
66
67
68
67
67
68
71
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
106
99
95
84
79
78
74
72
Ecuador
68
65
62
63
65
65
70
73
Puerto Rico
58
62
63
62
62
66
73
74
29
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sri Lanka
79
67
65
75
80
75
75
75
Costa Rica
87
83
77
83
78
77
76
76
Bulgaria
72
78
79
70
71
76
77
77
Panama
98
90
74
77
77
73
78
78
Serbia
75
86
90
86
85
84
82
79
Lithuania
78
88
88
82
81
81
81
80
Luxembourg
67
72
72
71
72
74
79
81
Croatia
65
74
80
80
84
80
80
82
Slovenia
70
84
87
87
86
85
84
83
Myanmar
102
73
75
88
87
83
83
84
Uganda
104
96
99
91
89
89
86
85
Uruguay
88
77
73
76
76
82
85
86
Cameroon
91
98
97
92
94
90
87
87
Libya
63
64
71
97
95
92
91
88
Nepal
116
107
101
101
99
96
93
89
Sudan
66
81
86
95
103
101
94
90
Jordan
103
95
92
89
88
91
92
91
Azerbaijan
83
68
93
78
82
88
89
92
Turkmenistan
74
80
89
74
75
87
88
93
Cambodia
128
122
111
106
104
103
102
94
Macao SAR
100
87
85
114
105
93
95
95
Paraguay
101
94
94
96
96
95
96
96
Belarus
71
70
81
79
74
86
90
97
Latvia
84
100
100
98
97
99
98
98
Estonia
92
105
102
100
98
100
99
99
Bolivia
111
101
96
94
92
94
97
100
Bahrain
95
97
98
93
93
98
100
101
Senegal
109
114
113
109
108
102
103
102
Tunisia
76
82
91
90
91
97
101
103
Zambia
108
103
104
108
106
106
104
104
Honduras
115
112
108
103
100
104
105
105
Mozambique
121
119
128
124
117
115
106
106
Yemen
97
93
103
107
112
111
107
107
Georgia
120
118
117
112
109
114
110
108
Benin
132
135
132
126
126
120
114
109
Papua New Guinea
122
109
110
104
102
107
108
110
Cyprus
90
104
109
111
110
110
109
111
Burkina Faso
137
126
124
123
121
118
116
112
Niger
142
142
139
136
134
123
121
113
30
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mali
133
127
120
121
119
119
117
114
Zimbabwe
136
117
112
99
118
109
111
115
Lao P.D.R.
144
139
116
133
138
117
118
116
Guyana
158
157
155
135
128
113
115
117
Iceland
96
121
106
110
111
108
113
118
West Bank and Gaza
141
131
118
117
120
121
120
119
El Salvador
105
108
105
102
101
105
112
120
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
107
115
115
113
114
116
119
121
Guinea
139
147
141
116
113
125
124
122
Botswana
119
123
119
125
127
122
123
123
Trinidad and Tobago
93
102
107
105
107
112
122
124
Mongolia
148
130
137
129
131
127
126
125
Gabon
114
116
122
115
116
124
125
126
Madagascar
130
133
129
132
132
128
127
127
Albania
117
129
130
122
122
126
128
128
Armenia
124
137
136
118
115
130
129
129
Rwanda
149
145
144
140
140
134
131
130
Moldova
146
143
143
134
133
137
133
131
Malta
135
141
126
128
129
129
130
132
Nicaragua
138
138
125
130
130
133
132
133
Brunei Darussalam
110
111
135
119
124
136
134
134
Mauritius
134
132
127
144
141
135
135
135
North Macedonia
131
140
138
138
135
138
138
136
Malawi
140
144
145
143
144
142
139
137
Republic of Congo
125
113
140
137
136
139
140
138
Jamaica
113
120
123
127
123
131
136
139
Haiti
123
124
121
120
125
132
137
140
Somalia
n/a
158
151
149
149
150
147
141
Chad
127
128
142
142
142
143
142
142
Mauritania
147
148
149
147
147
145
144
143
Tajikistan
151
146
147
146
146
144
143
144
Togo
154
152
150
150
150
146
146
145
Namibia
126
125
131
141
143
140
141
146
Kyrgyz Republic
150
149
146
145
145
147
148
147
The Bahamas
118
136
133
139
139
141
145
148
Kosovo
143
150
148
148
148
148
149
149
Maldives
161
160
156
152
151
151
150
150
South Sudan
n/a
134
160
154
154
152
151
151
Fiji
152
155
152
155
155
154
154
152
31
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Montenegro
153
156
154
151
152
153
153
153
Equatorial Guinea
112
106
134
131
137
149
152
154
Sierra Leone
160
159
158
157
161
157
155
155
Djibouti
171
168
164
159
158
158
158
156
Liberia
167
161
161
158
157
159
159
157
Barbados
145
154
153
153
153
155
156
158
Eswatini
155
153
157
156
156
156
157
159
Burundi
166
165
162
160
159
160
160
160
Bhutan
174
169
166
164
164
163
162
161
Suriname
156
151
159
162
162
161
161
162
The Gambia
170
173
175
169
168
167
165
163
Cabo Verde
165
170
171
170
171
166
166
164
Central African
Republic
163
163
168
166
166
164
164
165
Aruba
157
162
163
161
160
162
163
166
Timor-Leste
182
176
172
167
172
171
170
167
Guinea-Bissau
177
178
177
175
175
173
171
168
Seychelles
172
177
173
172
170
170
168
169
Belize
164
167
167
163
163
165
167
170
Eritrea
173
166
170
168
165
169
169
171
St. Lucia
168
172
169
171
169
172
173
172
Lesotho
162
164
165
165
167
168
172
173
Antigua and Barbuda
169
174
178
173
173
174
174
174
Comoros
175
179
180
177
178
177
176
175
Solomon Islands
180
175
176
176
174
176
175
176
San Marino
159
171
174
174
176
175
177
177
Grenada
176
181
179
178
177
178
178
178
St. Kitts and Nevis
179
180
181
179
179
179
179
179
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
178
184
184
181
180
180
180
180
Vanuatu
183
183
183
180
181
181
181
181
Samoa
181
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
Dominica
184
185
185
183
183
183
183
183
São Tomé and
Príncipe
189
188
187
184
184
185
184
184
Tonga
185
186
186
185
185
184
185
185
Micronesia
186
187
188
186
186
186
186
186
Palau
187
189
189
188
188
187
187
187
Marshall Islands
188
191
190
187
187
188
188
188
Kiribati
190
190
191
189
189
189
189
189
Nauru
192
192
192
190
190
190
190
190
32
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Country forecasts
Albania
As of 2022, Albania is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $17,858 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. The Covid-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 3.5% in
2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 8.5%,
followed by expected growth of 4.0% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 8.9%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also experienced a considerable
increase in consumer prices, with 6.2% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.8%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 was aided by an estimated 0.3 percentage-
point decline in the unemployment rate to 10.3%. However, despite the decline in 2022,
unemployment remains high, which will constrain levels of consumer spending in the coming years.
Meanwhile, Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to an
estimated 70.3% in 2022, from 73.9% in 2021.
Albania came 82nd in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the
country's regulatory environment made significant strides forward relative to other comparable
countries. In 2016, the country's ranking was 103rd.
The lack of a long-term solution in neighbouring state, Kosovo, threatens near-term prospects for
Albania. Any further escalation of current tensions within Kosovo, between the ethnic Albanian
majority and ethnic Serbs, will increase the likelihood of unrest spilling into economic troubles. This
adds greater uncertainty to Albania’s outlook.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth in Albania will slow to an average of 3.1% between
2023 and 2027, before picking up to an average of 3.4% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Albania is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table, from 122nd
position in 2022 to 128th place in 2037.
Albania
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-36%
-23%
-14%
-4%
-
2%
17%
38%
63%
Current price GDP, USD bn
11
12
13
18
18
19
25
32
42
Rank
117
129
130
120
122
122
126
128
128
33
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Algeria
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Algeria had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $13,324 in 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 5.1% in 2020, growth of 3.5% was seen
in 2021. In addition, further growth of 4.7% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output
2.8% above 2019 levels.
Inflation in Algeria is expected to have averaged a sizeable 9.7% in 2022. Looking ahead,
policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a more desirable
balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous
decade's average of 4.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP, another key macroeconomic indicator, is moving in the right
direction, edging down to an estimated 62.7% in 2022, from 63.0% in 2021.
The regulatory environment in Algeria is less competitive than that of many of its peers. The country
ranked in 157th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its ranking was
163rd.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.0% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 1.7% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Algeria is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table, from 56th
position in 2022 to 59th place in 2037.
Algeria
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-28%
-18%
-5%
-4%
-
3%
10%
20%
31%
Current price GDP, USD bn
135
209
170
163
191
207
246
294
352
Rank
51
48
54
58
56
56
57
58
59
34
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Angola
Angola is a lower-middle-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $7,455
as of 2022. After a prolonged recession with periods of stagflation that began in 2015, the economy
turned the corner in 2021 with growth of 0.8%. This was followed by a further expected expansion by
2.9% in 2022. The modest growth was spurred by a sharp increase in the price of oil, which accounts
for 95% of Angola’s exports.
Inflation fell from 27.7% in January 2022 to 15.2% in October 2022 and is expected to have averaged
21.7% over the year. Yet, while inflationary pressures eased somewhat, just 13 other countries globally
are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate in 2022. Unlike most other central banks, the
National Bank of Angola has started to lower policy rates, with a decrease of 50 basis points
announced in September 2022, the first rate cut since 2019. This came against a backdrop of
decreasing inflation and a strengthening currency, kwanza, which had gained more than 20% against
the US dollar in the first half of 2022.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 56.6% in 2022, down from 86.4%
the previous year. The government has started reaping the benefits from its efforts to improve
revenue mobilisation by increasing the efficiency of tax collection and reducing tax evasion. As a
result, the fiscal balance is expected to have been in surplus territory in 2022, at 2.7% of GDP.
The performance of the economy is constrained by a regulatory environment that can inhibit private
sector activity. In 2020, Angola ranked 177th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 182nd in 2016.
Over the next 15 years, Angola’s annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.9%
per year. This growth trajectory will see the country fall from 61st place in the World Economic
League Table in 2022 to 68th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of seven places.
Angola
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-3%
4%
-3%
-
3%
21%
47%
78%
Current price GDP, USD bn
65
128
122
75
122
126
126
168
224
Rank
64
60
58
73
61
60
69
66
68
35
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Antigua and Barbuda
Classified as a high-income country, Antigua and Barbuda had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $22,070 in 2022. After the economy shrank by 20.2% in 2020, growth of 5.3% was achieved
in 2021. This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 6.0%, leaving output 10.9% below
2019 levels. Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2025.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 8.5% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policies may be required to bring
non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022
exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.4%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen to 91.2% in 2022, down from 101.4% in
2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning public finances in many countries. The issue of public
sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that is estimated to have stood at 3.3% in 2022. The
pandemic period and more recently the cost-of-living crisis, have increased deficit spending in many
economies worldwide.
Over the four years to 2020, Antigua and Barbuda became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 113th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 98th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 4.1% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 2.7% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Antigua and Barbuda is expected to move slightly down World Economic League Table, from
173rd position in 2022 to 174th place in 2037.
Antigua and Barbuda
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
5%
-14%
0%
-6%
-
6%
22%
39%
59%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.9
3.7
Rank
169
174
178
175
173
173
174
174
174
36
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Argentina
Argentina’s PPP adjusted GDP per capita stood at $26,074 in 2021, making it an upper-middle-income
country. In absolute terms, Argentina is the second-largest economy in South America, after Brazil. In
per capita terms, it is also one of South America’s strongest performers, though falls behind Chile,
Guyana, and Uruguay.
Having contracted by 9.9% in 2020, on account of the Covid-19 pandemic, Argentina’s economy
recovered strongly in 2021, seeing output expand by 10.4%. Further growth of 4.0% is expected to
have taken place in 2022, taking GDP back above pre-pandemic levels.
Argentina has historically suffered with periods of high inflation. Though not on the same scale of the
hyperinflation last witnessed in 1989 and 1990, Argentina’s rate of price growth spiked again this year,
hitting a peak of 88.0% in October 2022. Across 2022, consumer price inflation is expected to have
averaged 72.4%, a value exceeded by only three other countries.
Such inflation has been driven by many of the factors influencing price growth across the world,
including Russia’s war in Ukraine and supply chain pressures. Argentina’s case has also been
particularly impacted by its expanding money supply, which is used to fund government spending.
Argentine inflation has also been exacerbated by a weakening peso, which has lost approximately
30% of its value against the US dollar in the year to October 2022.
Away from the inflation story, other economic indicators have improved in 2022. For instance, the
unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points relative to 2021, reaching 6.9%.
Argentina’s annual GDP growth rate is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2023. This slowdown is expected
to be driven by the inflationary environment, which has contributed to heightened uncertainty and
weakening consumer spending power. Interest rates, which have been tightened considerably in an
attempt to combat inflation, will also contribute to this slowdown. This weaker performance will see
Argentina slide down the World Economic League Table next year. Having been the world’s 24th
largest economy in 2022, we expect Argentina to fall to 33rd place in 2023, being overtaken by the
likes of Ireland, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates.
Argentina
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-13%
-2%
1%
-4%
-
1%
9%
21%
33%
Current price GDP, USD bn
288
580
644
487
630
471
645
783
951
Rank
31
21
21
29
24
33
32
35
36
37
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Armenia
Armenia had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $16,798 in 2022 and is classified as an
upper-middle-income country,. The Covid-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 7.4% in
2020. However, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.7%,
followed by expected growth of 7.0% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 4.7%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Alongside strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high of 8.5% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 2.7%.
The economy grew well in 2022 in spite of a high rate of unemployment. The share of the labour
force that is out of work is thought to have declined by 0.1 percentage points to 15.2% in 2022.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 52.3% in 2022, down from 60.2%
the previous year.
The regulatory environment in Armenia is more competitive than most of its peers. The country
ranked in 47th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, the country's
ranking was 54th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
4.3%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to accelerate to an average of 4.5% per year. The next 15 years are set to see Armenia move down
the rankings of the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from
118th in 2022 to 129th in 2037, a sizeable 11-place fall in the rankings.
Armenia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-33%
-29%
-16%
-7%
-
4%
23%
54%
92%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
11
12
14
18
22
22
30
42
Rank
124
137
136
133
118
115
130
129
129
38
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Aruba
Classified as a high-income country, Aruba had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $46,309
in 2022. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 18.6% in 2020, the economy saw 17.2% growth in
2021 and an expected 4.0% in 2022. As such, output in 2022 is thought to have stood 0.8% below
2019 levels, with a catch-up expected in 2023.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 6.0% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 far exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.4%.
The unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by 1.0 percentage point to 7.8% in 2022. While this
strengthening of the labour market is a positive for the economy going forward, the high rate of
unemployment remains a drag overall. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have
fallen to 95.0% in 2022, down from 101.8% in 2021. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated
3.8% of GDP. Government spending likely played an important role in increasing demand in the
economy in 2022. However, the combination of high government debt and a large deficit paint a
worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in the coming years.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 1.3%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 1.2% per
year. In the coming 15 years, Aruba is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League
Table, from 161st position in 2022 to 166th place in 2037.
Aruba
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-10%
-20%
-5%
-4%
-
2%
7%
13%
20%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.7
4.5
5.3
6.1
Rank
157
162
163
161
161
160
162
163
166
39
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Australia
As of 2022, Australia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $62,192 and is classified
as a high-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by -2.1% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 4.9%, followed
by expected further growth of 3.7% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 6.5%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Australia’s economy has largely been successful due to strong demand for its plentiful resources,
especially from the Asia-Pacific region. With the country holding extensive reserves of coal, iron,
copper, gold, natural gas and renewable energy sources, its abundant natural resources attract high
levels of foreign investment.
Australia’s limited direct economic links with countries affected by the crisis in Ukraine means that it
has mostly been able to benefit from higher commodity prices, with demand for Australian liquefied
natural gas and coal exports having risen in 2022. This has provided some budget relief, partially
contributing to government debt as a share of GDP falling to 56.7% in 2022, down from 58.4% the
previous year. Nonetheless, the benefits Australia has received in terms of trade are under threat.
Mounting headwinds in China, especially due to a property crisis, along with an apparent shift in
stance away from economic growth, suggest that economic activity in China will ease markedly in the
medium-term. As one of Australia’s major trading partners, such an occurrence will invariably spill
over to Australia’s growth prospects via a drop-off in exports and investment, thereby adding
significant uncertainty to Australia’s long-term economic outlook.
Nonetheless, higher energy prices have also weighed on domestic consumption, offsetting
Australia’s relatively late pandemic recovery. Most recent estimates of annual inflation in Australia
saw consumer prices rise by 7.3% year-on-year in Q3 2022. This, coupled with a very tight labour
market - the unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen by 1.4 percentage points to stand at 3.6%
across 2022 - has resulted in the Reserve Bank of Australia implementing multiple hikes to bring
inflation back to its 2%-3% range. Higher interest rates and persistent price pressures will inevitably
place downward pressure on investment and consumption.
Accordingly, between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to
an average of 2.0%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic
growth is expected to accelerate to an average of 2.2% per year. In the coming 15 years, Australia is
expected to rise on the World Economic League Table, from 14th position in 2022 to 13th place in
2037.
Australia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-30%
-21%
-10%
-4%
-
2%
10%
23%
37%
Current price GDP, USD bn
949
1,569
1,382
1,635
1,684
1,656
2,055
2,518
3,087
Rank
15
12
13
12
14
14
13
13
13
40
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Austria
Austria is a small, well-developed European country and falls into the classification of a high-income
economy. Austria joined the European Union (EU) in 1995, adopting the euro in 1999, and the
landlocked country is closely tied to other economies in the EU, notably Germany. The citizens of
Austria enjoy a high standard of living with PPP adjusted GDP per capita estimated to be $66,680 in
2022.
Although the pandemic induced a 6.7% contraction in GDP in 2020, 2021 saw a solid bounce-back of
4.6%. This was spurred by a relatively quick uptake of the Covid-19 vaccine, allowing parts of the
economy to reopen in 2021. In particular, the recovery was bolstered by the strength of the tourism
sector during the winter months, especially in the Alpine region of Tyrol offering skiing and winter
activities.
In 2022, Austria’s economy is expected to have grown by 4.7%. Austria’s labour market remains a
standout performer, with unemployment estimated to be down 1.7 percentage points to 4.5% in
2022. Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to 78.5% in
2022, from 82.9% in 2021. However, despite a solid first half of 2022, Austria’s GDP growth is
projected to slow sharply in Q3 and Q4 and in 2023, due to the energy-led inflation crisis in Europe.
Inflation in Austria is expected to average 7.7% in 2022, well above the European Central Bank’s
(ECB) 2% target. This will erode household spending power and reduce near-term demand. Inflation
is then expected to fall to 5.1% in 2023, though this is still high by historical norms.
Austria imported around 80% of its gas from Russia before 2022 and is therefore especially
vulnerable to the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. While the threat of energy blackouts this
winter has lessened, in light of milder weather and built-up storage, eyes are already fixed on the
preparation for winter 2023, with it likely to prove much harder to refill gas storage capacity with
Russia now an outcast. The Austrian economy is forecast to grow by 1.0% in 2023, marking a
significant slowdown from the previous two years.
A heavy determinant of Austria’s performance will be how quickly the economy can move away from
reliance on Russian gas and become more resilient to global shocks. In 2021, Austria committed to
producing 100% of the country’s energy from renewables by 2030, while pledging carbon neutrality
by 2040. Following this cause, in October 2022 €5.7 billion was promised by the Austrian
Government aimed to help decarbonise industry and reduce energy footprint more generally. If
green investment continues, Austria could not only create a more resilient clean energy economy but
can become a major hub for green energy in Europe.
Austria
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-14%
-11%
-6%
-4%
-
1%
8%
18%
28%
Current price GDP, USD bn
389
410
417
477
465
475
573
691
834
Rank
26
30
28
31
33
32
37
39
40
41
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.6% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up to an average of 1.7% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15 years,
Austria is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table, from 33rd position in
2022 to 40th place in 2037.
42
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Azerbaijan
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Azerbaijan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $17,448 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 4.2% in 2020, the economy grew by 5.6%
in 2021 and an estimated 3.7% in 2022, bringing output 4.9% above 2019 levels.
As well as solid output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high of 12.2% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 4.9%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%. The
public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to have
fallen to 20.7% in 2022 from 26.4% in 2021. The government is expected to have operated a fiscal
surplus of 17.1% of GDP in 2022, despite the global turbulence in public finances induced by the
pandemic and rising inflation. The combination of a relatively low debt burden and a fiscal surplus
mean that the public finances are in a strong position, which will support private sector confidence
and investment, whilst also providing the government with greater fiscal ammunition in the future.
The performance of the private sector in Azerbaijan has been improved by a regulatory and
institutional environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country
ranked 34th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 69th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 2.5%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the rate of GDP growth will also average at 2.5% per year.
Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Azerbaijan in the World Economic
League Table will deteriorate, with its ranking dipping from 78th to 92nd by 2037. This would
represent a 14-place fall in the rankings.
Azerbaijan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-33%
-14%
-8%
-4%
-
3%
13%
28%
45%
Current price GDP, USD bn
33
70
41
55
70
73
72
90
112
Rank
83
68
93
88
78
82
88
89
92
43
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
The Bahamas
Classified as a high-income country, The Bahamas had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$39,785 in 2022. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 23.8% in 2020, the economy saw 13.7%
growth in 2021 and an expected 8.0% in 2022. As such, output in 2022 is thought to have stood 6.4%
below 2019 levels, with a catch-up expected in 2024.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 5.7% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.4%.
The unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by 4.3 percentage points to 13.9% in 2022. While
this strengthening of the labour market is a positive for the economy going forward, the high rate of
unemployment remains a drag overall. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have
fallen to 90.7% in 2022, down from 103.3% in 2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning public
finances in many countries. Government borrowing is expected to have equated to 5.7% of GDP in
2022. These figures mean that public sector debt will continue to pose a challenge for the economy
in the coming years, as the government faces the balancing act of supporting households and
businesses while containing the debt burden.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, The Bahamas has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.4% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.5% on average each
year. This modest growth path would see The Bahamas fall behind many of its peers in the World
Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will fall from 139th place in 2022 to 148th
place by 2037, a dramatic nine-place decline in the rankings.
The Bahamas
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
2%
1%
3%
-7%
-
4%
13%
21%
31%
Current price GDP, USD bn
11
11
12
11
13
14
18
19
23
Rank
118
136
133
141
139
139
141
145
148
44
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bahrain
As of 2022, Bahrain is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $57,921 and is classified as
a high-income country. The Covid-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 4.9% in 2020.
Then, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.2%, followed by
expected growth of 3.4% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 0.5% above 2019
levels in 2022.
Bahrain achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 3.5% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide, whereby figures have reached double-digits.
Nonetheless, the estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's
average of 1.5%.
The unemployment rate declined by 1.1 percentage points to an estimated 5.5% in 2022, which will
support household incomes and thus levels of spending in the coming period. Standing at an
estimated 119.5% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high. However, the public
finances are moving in the right direction, with the debt to GDP ratio in 2022 down from 128.5% in
2021. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 4.7% of GDP. Government spending likely
played an important role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022. However, the combination of
high government debt and a large deficit paints a worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in
the coming years.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, Bahrain has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2060.
Bahrain came 43rd in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the
country's regulatory environment made significant strides forward relative to other comparable
countries. In 2016, the country's ranking was 63rd.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.0%. Moreover, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to outturn
the same average of 3.0% per year. This growth trajectory will see Bahrain fall from 93rd place in the
World Economic League Table in 2022 to 101st in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of eight
places.
Bahrain
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-35%
-22%
-5%
-3%
-
3%
16%
35%
57%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
31
35
39
43
46
57
73
93
Rank
95
97
98
96
93
93
98
100
101
45
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bangladesh
As the second largest economy in South Asia, Bangladesh had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $7,985 in 2022, classifying it as a lower middle-income country. While it was not fully
immune to the spill over effects of pandemic-related economic losses, the Bangladeshi economy still
managed to expand by 3.4% in the fiscal year 2019/20 (ending on 30 June 2020), a rare achievement
compared to international standards.
Moreover, its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, infrastructure improvements and enhanced
digitalisation has allowed for a post-pandemic recovery, with output growth in the fiscal year 2020/21
estimated to stand at 6.9%, after which growth is expected to have accelerated to 7.2% in the fiscal
year 2021/22.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in the fiscal year 2021/22, inflation also ran hot, not least due
to fallout of the conflict in Ukraine. Indeed, high inflation remains a key downside risk for Bangladesh,
not least due to the fact that it leads to a higher current account deficit, in light of elevated
commodity prices. In 2022, the Government operated a fiscal deficit of 5.1%, facilitated in part by a
low debt to GDP ratio, at 37.5%.
Bangladesh’s strong growth has been very much down to strong remittance flows and a robust
export market, with the two factors anticipated to play a prominent role in the economy’s growth
moving forwards. In addition to ready-made garment (RMG) exports, Bangladesh also exports jute
goods, seafood, leather goods, home textiles, vegetables, and pharmaceutical products.
Nonetheless, downside risks to Bangladesh’s exports include diminishing trade as a result of a global
economic downturn, along with higher input costs.
Nonetheless, there have been conceited efforts over the past few years in Dhaka to ‘level-up’
economic growth and diversify from its export-led market. Such measures include decentralising
political power for development purposes, funding infrastructure projects all around the country and
constructing defences against natural disasters, especially floods. Strong foreign direct investment
from both India and China will help to accelerate such developments.
We expect the annual rate of GDP growth to ease slightly to an average of 6.4% between fiscal year
2022/23 and fiscal year 2026/27. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will
expand by 6.5% on average each year. Cebr forecasts that Bangladesh’s position on the World
Economic League Table will move from 34th in 2022 to 20th in 2037, a sizeable 14-place
improvement in the rankings.
Bangladesh
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-60%
-47%
-27%
-7%
-
6%
36%
87%
156%
Current price GDP, USD bn
95
160
294
416
429
435
718
1,081
1,628
Rank
57
58
42
36
34
35
26
24
20
46
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Barbados
As of 2022, Barbados is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $17,314 and is classified
as a high-income country. After the economy shrank by 13.7% in 2020, growth of 0.7% was achieved
in 2021. This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 10.5%, leaving output 4.0% below
2019 levels. Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 9.9%.
Demand-side policies may be appropriate to bring about -non-inflationary growth over the longer-
term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average
of 2.7%.
One factor contributing to the meagre economic growth of the past year has been a high rate of
unemployment. However, the labour market is moving in the right direction, with the unemployment
rate expected to have fallen by 3.3 percentage points to 10.8% in 2022. Standing at an estimated
117.9% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high. However, the public finances
are moving in the right direction, with the debt to GDP ratio in 2022 down from 135.4% in 2021.
Government borrowing is expected to have equated to 3.2% of GDP in 2022. These figures mean that
public sector debt will continue to pose a challenge for the economy in the coming years, as the
government faces the balancing act of supporting households and businesses while containing the
debt burden.
Over the four years to 2020, Barbados became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 128th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 107th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.9% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 1.8% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Barbados is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table, from 153rd
position in 2022 to 158th place in 2037.
Barbados
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
11%
2%
6%
-10%
-
5%
16%
27%
39%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4.7
4.6
5.0
4.9
5.8
6.3
7.4
8.9
10.8
Rank
145
154
153
154
153
153
155
156
158
47
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Belarus
Belarus is expected to have seen PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $21,709 in 2022. At the global level,
it is classified as an upper-middle-income country, though it ranks as one of the poorest countries in
Europe when looking at GDP per capita.
Belarus’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic was not as stringent as many other European countries,
with there being no national lockdown. As a result, the economy saw a much shallower contraction in
2020, amounting to a year-on-year GDP fall of just 0.7%. A return to growth was seen in 2021, with a
2.3% uptick. However, the economy is expected to have since fallen by a further 7.0% in 2022. As
such, the economy is now 5.5% smaller relative to 2019.
The GDP slump in 2022 was driven by geopolitical circumstances. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a
portion of which purportedly took place through Belarusian territory, resulted in sanction beings
placed on Belarus by the US, EU, and UK, coming on top of existing sanctions that had been in place
since domestic unrest in 2020. In combination with diplomatic isolation, sanctions have significantly
reduced Belarus’s net exports in 2022, thus acting as large drag on GDP growth. The weakening of
the Russian economy as a result of similar effects will have also impacted Belarus, with the former
having accounted for a significant plurality of Belarus’s exports historically.
A return to growth is anticipated in 2023, though this is only expected to be a slight increase of 0.2%.
Growth rates of 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively, are projected for 2024 and 2025, before settling at an
annual growth rate of around 0.5% from 2026 onwards. Such was the severity of 2022’s GDP fall,
Cebr does not expect Belarus’s economy to return to pre-war size until 2037, the final year in our
forecast horizon. This will contribute to a marked fall down the World Economic League Table
rankings, falling to 97th place by 2037, having stood at 77th in 2021.
Belarus
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
3%
1%
8%
-
0%
3%
5%
8%
Current price GDP, USD bn
47
66
55
68
69
83
79
89
100
Rank
71
70
81
77
79
74
86
90
97
48
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Belgium
Belgium is a small country located in Western Europe, bordered by France, Germany, Luxembourg
and the Netherlands. It was a founding member of the European Union and its capital Brussels is
home to a large number of international organisations including NATO and the European Union itself.
It had an estimated population of 11.7 million people in 2022, ranking 79th in the world on this
measure, yet places in 26th place on the World Economic League Table for the same year, reflecting
its highly developed economy. In 2022, its PPP adjusted GDP per capita is estimated to have stood at
$62,065.
Belgium’s economy is based on services, which account for about three-quarters of its GDP. This
includes banking, insurance, real estate, business services, retail trade and tourism. It is a highly open
economy, with the total value of imports and exports in 2019 equating to 163% of GDP, ranking 14th in
the world on this measure and sixth in Europe. The country’s main exports are machinery and
equipment, chemicals, finished diamonds and pharmaceuticals.
In October 2020, a coalition government was formed from seven political parties, led by Flemish
liberal Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, enabling progress to be made on pandemic recovery
policies. Following a GDP contraction of 5.7% in 2020, Belgium saw growth, at 6.2%, in 2021. Further
growth, at 2.4%, is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 2.6% above 2019 levels.
As has been the case in many major global economies, inflation became a dominant economic story
in Belgium throughout 2022. Consumer price inflation is expected to have averaged 9.5% across the
year, with a 47-year high of 12.3% recorded in October 2022 followed by a slight easing in price
pressures. Inflation in the country has been largely driven by energy prices, which were up by over a
third on the year as per the latest reading in November. Across the year, the Belgian Government has
announced a number of cost-of-living support measures, including cuts to VAT on energy bills and
fuel duty, a social energy rate for low-income households, greater incentives to invest in renewable
energy sources in the home, and support for struggling businesses. The country aims to partly
finance these measures through the application of a windfall tax on energy companies.
Belgium’s central European location and integrated infrastructure means that its energy supply is
relatively secure, helping the country to meet the European Commission’s 2022 gas storage target
one month in advance. It houses the Zeebrugge LNG terminal on its northern coastline, where gas
can be stored, traded or distributed within Belgium. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen Europe
switch away from Russian natural gas and instead seek to expand its LNG import capacity, the
success of which will likely define the energy mix and European inflation path into winter 2023.
Belgium
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-16%
-13%
-6%
-2%
-
0%
6%
12%
19%
Current price GDP, USD bn
471
496
503
599
586
599
702
814
944
Rank
20
25
25
25
26
24
28
33
37
49
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Standing at an estimated 103.9% of GDP in 2022, levels of government debt in Belgium are
concerningly high, despite falling slightly from 108.4% in 2021. The government is expected to have
recorded a fiscal deficit of 4.7% for 2022 as a result of ongoing support measures. High levels of
public debt have been a core topic for a number of decades, with the debt ratio having increased
sharply between 1970 and 1990, after which high debt service costs and commitments for greater
European integration saw a commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Looking ahead, the annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 1.1% between 2023
and 2027, having stood at 1.8% across the five pre-pandemic years. Over the subsequent decade,
Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.2% on average each year. Amid this rather weak
growth outlook, Belgium is expected to fall 11 places in the World Economic League Table rankings
over the next 15 years, moving from 26th in 2022 to 37th in 2037. Over this period, the country will be
overtaken by a number of swiftly growing countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines,
and Vietnam.
50
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Belize
As of 2022, Belize is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $9,623 and is classified as an
upper-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 13.7% in 2020, the economy grew by
16.3% in 2021 and an estimated 3.5% in 2022, bringing output 3.9% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a notable increase in
consumer prices, with 6.6% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 0.8%.
The unemployment rate fell by an estimated 1.7 percentage points to 8.5% in 2022. While this will
have spurred consumer spending and overall GDP growth, the high rate of unemployment remains
an area in need of improvement for the economy in the years ahead. The country's level of
government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio thought to have stood at
76.3% in 2022. This is below the 82.2% recorded in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Belize has been inhibited by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In 2020, the
country ranked 135th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 122nd in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.0% between 2023 and
2027, while also remaining at this average between 2028 and 2037. Over the next 15 years, Cebr
forecasts that Belize will see a slight worsening of its position in the World Economic League Table,
dropping from 163rd place in 2022 to 170th place in 2037.
Belize
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-15%
-8%
-3%
-
2%
10%
22%
35%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.4
4.2
5.1
Rank
164
167
167
166
163
163
165
167
170
51
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Benin
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Benin had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$4,183 in 2022. The economy was an outlier in 2020, growing by 3.8% in spite of the pandemic. This
was followed by further growth of 7.2% in 2021. For 2022, economic growth is estimated to have
stood at 5.7%, marking a slowdown on the previous year.
The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 was 5.0%, exceeding the previous decade's
average by 3.7 percentage points. Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary
growth over the longer-term.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have reached 54.8% in 2022, compared to 49.9%
the previous year. While this marks a notable increase, the country’s level of debt relative to the rest
of the world is moderate.
Over the forecast horizon, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 6.0% per year.
Indeed, the next 15 years are set to see Benin climb rapidly up the rankings of the World Economic
League Table thanks to this solid growth. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 126th in
2022 to 109th in 2037, a sizeable 17-place improvement in the rankings.
Benin
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-41%
-25%
-5%
-
6%
34%
79%
140%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
11
13
18
17
18
29
42
62
Rank
132
135
132
122
126
126
120
114
109
52
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bhutan
As of 2022, Bhutan is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $13,077 and is classified as
a lower-middle-income country. The country saw relatively small contractions of 2.3% and 3.3% in
2020 and 2021, respectively. This was followed by an expected moderate rebound of 4.0% in 2022,
bringing output 1.8% below 2019 levels. A catch-up to 2019 levels is expected in 2023.
Driven by global factors, inflation rose higher than the modest GDP growth; inflation in 2022 is
estimated to have been 7.7%. Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary
growth over the longer-term. However, estimated inflation in 2022 was not substantially high relative
to the previous decade's average of 6.4%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have remained relatively flat in 2022, decreasing
slightly to 130.8% from 132.4% in 2021. A high fiscal deficit of 10.0% of GDP is expected to have been
seen in 2022. Fiscal consolidation will eventually be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not
destabilise the economy.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Bhutan ranked 89th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of
71st in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 5.4% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an even faster rate of
5.8% on average each year. Between 2022 and 2037, Bhutan is forecast to move from 164th place to
161st place in the World Economic League Table, a three-place improvement in the rankings.
Bhutan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-52%
-28%
-6%
-4%
-
4%
30%
72%
128%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.0
1.8
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
4.0
5.8
8.4
Rank
174
169
166
165
164
164
163
162
161
53
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bolivia
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Bolivia had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $9,933 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 8.7% in 2020, the economy grew by 6.1% in 2021
and an estimated 3.8% in 2022, bringing output 0.5% above 2019 levels.
Unlike many other economies grappling with high inflation, the country managed to keep consumer
price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 3.2% in 2022, while also seeing strong output
growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was the same as the average for the previous decade, an
impressive feat compared to the rest of the world.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 was supported by a robust labour market.
Indeed, the unemployment rate is expected to have declined by 2.5 percentage points to 4.5% in
2022. Government debt as a share of GDP reached an estimated 82.6% in 2022. This is above the
80.5% registered the previous year. A high fiscal deficit of 8.5% of GDP is expected to have been
seen in 2022. Fiscal consolidation will eventually be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not
destabilise the economy.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.8%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 2.5% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Bolivia is forecast to move from 94th place to
100th place in the World Economic League Table, a six-place fall in the rankings.
Bolivia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-42%
-27%
-7%
-4%
-
3%
15%
30%
47%
Current price GDP, USD bn
13
27
38
41
43
46
60
75
93
Rank
111
101
96
93
94
92
94
97
100
54
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bosnia and Herzegovina
As of 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $17,899
and is classified as an upper-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 3.1% in 2020,
the economy grew by 7.5% in 2021 and an anticipated 2.5% in 2022, bringing output 6.7% above
2019 pre-Covid levels.
Despite a sluggish output performance in 2022, inflation accelerated sharply to an expected 10.5%, in
line with other countries in the region but far above the previous decade's average of 0.2% for the
country.
Over 2022 the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, but at 17.3%, remains high. Public
finances are on an encouraging path, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to 31.8% in
2022, down from 35.4% in 2021. The government has maintained discipline with its fiscal policy, with
an estimated fiscal surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2022. The strength of the public finances
means that country has room to harness growth-augmenting expansionary fiscal policies in the
future.
The country held a general election in October 2022, which saw Bosniak Denis Bećirović, Bosnian
Croat Željko Komšić, and Bosnian Serb Željka Cvijanović elected to the three-party presidency. The
election was somewhat overshadowed by the announcement from the High Representative for
Bosnia and Herzegovina (a role meant to oversee and help maintain peace in the country) that
electoral law reforms would be implemented. Some claim that the reforms will lead to more efficient
collaboration between Republika Srpska (and its mainly Bosnian Serb population) and the Federation
of Bosnia and Herzegovina (and its mainly Bosniak and Bosnian Croatian population). Others have
expressed concern that imposing these changes will only stoke tensions along ethno-nationalist
lines. In terms of the economic outlook, neither the general election nor the electoral law changes
are set to materially impact the growth trajectory.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will rise to an average of
2.8%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to accelerate further
to an average of 3.0% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Bosnia and Herzegovina is forecast to move
from 113th place to 121st place in the World Economic League Table, an 8-place drop in the rankings.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-23%
-12%
-2%
-
2%
15%
33%
54%
Current price GDP, USD bn
15
17
18
23
23
24
31
40
51
Rank
107
115
115
111
113
114
116
119
121
55
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Botswana
Botswana is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$19,199 as of 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 8.7% in 2020, growth, at 11.4%, was
seen in 2021. Further growth of 4.1% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 5.8%
above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 11.2%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 4.2%.
The public finances are in good condition, although government debt as a share of GDP is expected
to have edged up to 21.3% in 2022. This compares to 19.5% the previous year. The fiscal deficit is
expected to have stood at a relatively low level of 1.5% of GDP in 2022. The combination of a
relatively low debt burden and small deficit mean that the public finances are in a strong position,
which will support private sector confidence and investment, while also providing the government
with greater fiscal ammunition in the future.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Botswana, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 15% compared to 2010 levels by 2030.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Botswana ranked 87th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking
of 68th in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
4.0%. The same growth rate is expected to be seen over the remainder of the forecast horizon. Over
the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Botswana will see a slight improvement in its ranking in the
World Economic League Table, rising from 125th place in 2022 to 123rd place in 2037.
Botswana
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-32%
-29%
-12%
-4%
-
4%
22%
48%
80%
Current price GDP, USD bn
11
14
16
18
18
18
27
36
48
Rank
119
123
119
123
125
127
122
123
123
56
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Brazil
In 2022, Brazil was estimated to have a PPP-adjusted GDP per capita of $17,684, making it an upper-
middle-income country. After contracting by 3.9% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.6% in 2021 and an
expected 2.2% in 2022, bringing output to 2.8% above 2019 levels.
Inflation accelerated sharply throughout 2021 and early 2022, reaching a high of 12.1% in April that
year. It has since fallen back to below 5.9% as of November 2022. As such, price growth over the past
two years was well above the previous decade's average of 5.8%.
Brazil’s economy experienced a sharp downturn in 2015 and 2016, partly due to falling commodity
prices and economic mismanagement. This caused an uptick in the unemployment rate, which
proved to be long-standing, with the rate of joblessness still standing at 12% in 2019. The pandemic
then caused further increase in unemployment before a labour market recovery set in in 2021. Over
the course of 2022, unemployment hast decreased to stand at 8.3% by October that year.
Government debt as a share of GDP in Brazil fell to 88.2% in 2022, down from 93.0% in 2021,
continuing the impressive progress shown since the pandemic-induced high government spending
levels and lower tax revenues from a weakened economy. But a large fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP is
still expected for 2022, so Brazil will need to prioritise fiscal consolidation and stability in order to
ensure debt levels are not a problem for the economy. Presidential elections took place in October
2022, which saw Brazil’s incumbent populist president Jair Bolsonaro lose a close election to left-
leaning Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Lula had previously served two terms as Brazil's president from 2003
to 2010, and will officially enter the office of presidency on January 1 2023.
Brazil has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, although it has not yet set a legal
commitment.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.8% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up to an average of 2.3% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022 and 2037,
Brazil is forecast to move from 12th place to eighth place in the World Economic League Table, a 4-
place rise in the rankings, signalling a return for Brazil to its ranking between 2008 and 2019.
Brazil
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-19%
-3%
-6%
-2%
-
1%
9%
22%
37%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,397
2,464
2,064
1,608
1,861
1,931
2,656
3,271
4,029
Rank
10
7
8
13
12
11
8
8
8
57
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Brunei Darussalam
As of 2022, Brunei Darussalam is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $74,196 and is
classified as a high-income country. It is heavily based on energy with upstream oil and gas
production accounting for 49.6% of GDP in 2021 and the downstream refining and petrochemicals
sector accounting for a further 8.4%. Oil production is held back at around 200,000 barrels per day,
down from its 1979 peak of 240,000, to prolong reserves.
Despite the pandemic, the country managed to achieve economic growth of 1.1% in 2020, although
the economy subsequently shrank by 1.6% in 2021. Nonetheless, output is expected to have risen
again in 2022, by 1.2%, to a level 0.8% above 2019 levels.
Sluggish output growth for the economy in 2022 was paired with a moderate rise in consumer prices,
at an estimated 2.5%. The economy has achieved a relatively more favourable growth-inflation trade-
off compared to other economies worldwide though estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to
the previous decade's average of 0.3%. The inflation performance has been helped by the
government’s policy of fixing the value of the Brunei Dollar against the relatively buoyant Singapore
Dollar, thus restraining the costs of imports.
The public finances are in good shape, with government debt as a share of GDP forecasted to fall to
1.9% in 2022, down from 2.5% the previous year. Relatively low levels of government debt have been
facilitated by a disciplined approach to fiscal policy. Indeed, the government is expected to run a
fiscal surplus amounting to 1.7% of GDP in 2022, whilst other countries faced ballooning public
finances as a result of the pandemic and rising inflation, helped by strong revenues from higher
commodity prices.
The business environment has improved significantly in recent years as part of the government’s plan
to diversify the economy away from dependence on energy production. In 2020, Brunei Darussalam
ranked 66th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, up from 108th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.1% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up further to an average of 3.4% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022 and
2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Brunei Darussalam in the World Economic League Table will
deteriorate, with its ranking dipping from 119th to 134th by 2037. This would represent a 15-place fall
in the rankings. This will be driven by increasing input costs of energy production – an increasing
proportion of Brunei’s energy production is deep sea based – along with the forecast relative fall in
energy prices.
Brunei Darussalam
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-2%
2%
-5%
-1%
-
3%
17%
38%
64%
Current price GDP, USD bn
14
19
12
14
18
18
20
26
34
Rank
110
111
135
131
119
124
136
134
134
58
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Bulgaria
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Bulgaria had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $29,178 in 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 4.4% in 2020, growth, at 4.2%,
was seen in 2021. Further growth of 3.9% is expected to have been achieved in 2022, leaving output
3.5% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 12.4% inflation expected in 2022. This stands far above the previous decade's
average of 0.9%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 went hand in hand with the robustness of the
labour market. Indeed, over 2022, the unemployment rate is forecast to have fallen by 0.2
percentage points to 5.1%. Government debt is expected to have remained at a relatively low 22.8%
of GDP, compared to 23.8% in 2021. A low debt burden provided the government with the fiscal
headroom to operate an expected budget deficit of 3.3% in 2022. This deficit spending has, however,
likely been important in bolstering demand in the economy.
But over the four years to 2020, Bulgaria became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 61st place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 39th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.9% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 2.5% between 2028 and 2037. Over the next 15
years, Cebr forecasts that Bulgaria will see a slight worsening of its position in the World Economic
League Table, dropping from 70th place in 2022 to 77th place in 2037.
Bulgaria
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-23%
-18%
-10%
-4%
-
3%
15%
30%
48%
Current price GDP, USD bn
44
54
59
80
84
87
104
129
161
Rank
72
78
79
71
70
71
76
77
77
59
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso is a low-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,656 as of
2022. The economy was an outlier compared to the rest of the world, growing by 1.9% in 2020 in
spite of the pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 6.9% in 2021, and expected additional
growth of 3.6% in 2022.
However, robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices.
Inflation is estimated to have stood at 14.2% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be
appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. Estimated inflation in 2022 was
substantially higher than the previous decade's average of 1.2%.
While government debt as a share of GDP remains at a moderate level compared to some
economies in the region, it is expected to have reached 59.6% in 2022, up from 52.4% in 2021.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Burkina Faso ranked 151st in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a
ranking of 138th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 5.2% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
remain strong, at 5.3% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Burkina Faso will move
swiftly up the World Economic League Table rankings, from 123rd position in 2022 to 112th in 2037.
Burkina Faso
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-39%
-21%
-3%
-
5%
29%
66%
115%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
13
14
19
18
19
29
42
59
Rank
137
126
124
117
123
121
118
116
112
60
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Burundi
As of 2022, Burundi is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $865 and is classified as a
low-income country. The economy expanded by 0.3% in 2020, unlike many other economies
grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Following this, in 2021, output grew by 3.1%, after
which growth is expected to have accelerated to 3.3%.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 17.3% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 7.0%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have stood at 66.4% in 2022, compared to
66.6% the previous year.
The performance of the economy is constrained by a regulatory environment that can inhibit private
sector activity. In 2020, Burundi ranked 166th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 158th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 4.7% between
2023 and 2027, and remain at a similar level of 4.6% per year between 2028 and 2037. Between
2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of Burundi to remain stable
at 160th.
Burundi
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-31%
-14%
-10%
-3%
-
4%
26%
57%
96%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.4
2.3
3.2
3.4
3.7
4.0
5.1
7.0
9.6
Rank
166
165
162
160
160
159
160
160
160
61
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$8,460 as of 2022. After the economy shrank by 14.8% in 2020, growth of 7.0% was achieved in 2021.
This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 4.0%, leaving output 5.2% below 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2024.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 6.5% in 2022;
though this is not as high as most of the countries around the world. Nevertheless, looking ahead,
policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a more desirable
balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous
decade's average of 0.8%.
The economy has a high level of public sector debt, and government finances deteriorated further in
2022; debt as a share of GDP is expected to have risen to 154.5%, up from 142.3% in 2021. In 2022,
the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 6.4% of GDP. Government spending likely played an
important role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022. However, the combination of high
government debt and a large deficit paint a worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in the
coming years.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Cabo Verde, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 5.1%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to decline to an average of 4.5% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Cabo Verde will
see a modest improvement in its ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 170th
place in 2022 to 164th place in 2037.
Cabo Verde
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-30%
-22%
-13%
-4%
-
5%
28%
60%
99%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.0
2.1
3.3
4.6
6.3
Rank
165
170
171
169
170
171
166
166
164
62
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Cambodia
As of 2022, Cambodia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,583 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 3.1% in 2020, the economy grew
by 3.0% in 2021 and an estimated 5.1% in 2022, bringing output 4.9% above 2019 levels.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a similar increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 5.2% in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022
exceeded the previous decade's average of 2.7%. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be
appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
The public finances in Cambodia are in good condition, although government debt as a share of GDP
is expected to have edged up to 36.8% in 2022, compared to 36.3% the previous year. A relatively
low debt burden provided the government with the fiscal headroom to operate an expected budget
deficit of 4.5% in 2022. This deficit spending has, however, likely been important in bolstering
demand in the economy.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 6.5% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will be
6.6% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Cambodia in the World
Economic League Table will improve considerably, with its ranking rising from 106th to 94th by 2037.
This would represent a 12-place gain in the rankings.
Cambodia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-41%
-17%
-5%
-
6%
37%
88%
159%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
14
22
26
29
32
46
69
104
Rank
128
122
111
108
106
104
103
102
94
63
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Cameroon
Cameroon is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,419
as of 2022. Unlike many other economies around the world grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic,
the economy expanded by 0.5% in 2020. This was followed by further growth of 3.6% in 2021, after
which growth is expected to have accelerated to 3.8% in 2022.
The country achieved a relatively favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average
GDP performance alongside 4.6% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the
previous decade's average of 1.9%.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio expected to
have stood at 46.8% in 2022. This is above the 45.5% recorded in 2021.
Cameroon came 167th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings, suggesting that
the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector. In 2016, the country's ranking
was 172nd.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 4.8% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will be
4.9% per year. This growth trajectory will see Cameroon climb from 92nd place in the World
Economic League Table in 2022 to 87th by 2037, a gain of five places.
Cameroon
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-42%
-32%
-14%
-4%
-
5%
27%
61%
104%
Current price GDP, USD bn
24
30
36
45
44
45
69
96
134
Rank
91
98
97
90
92
94
90
87
87
64
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Canada
The Canadian economy is one of the most prosperous in the world, with an estimated PPP-adjusted
per-capita GDP of $57,827 in 2022. It is a developed mixed economy, with a large public sector and a
strong private sector. Canada is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals, timber, and fish,
and has strong links to its neighbour, the United States. In 2022, it ranked as the world’s eighth
largest economy in current price US dollar terms, a position it previously held in 2006, before being
temporarily overtaken by Spain, Brazil, and Russia. A stronger depreciation in the euro, against the
US dollar, compared with that in the Canadian dollar, also saw Italy fall behind Canada for the first
time. The country has been a member of the G7 group of leading industrial nations since 1976.
Canada's economic performance has been relatively strong over the past few decades. The country
experienced steady economic growth since the early 1990s, tending to outperform its G7
counterparts. Over the ten-year period prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the country saw average
annual growth of 3.2%, with growth slowing to an average of 1.6% in the subsequent ten years. Both
of these averages marked the highest among all G7 members. This performance was lifted by driven
by investment in infrastructure and technology and rising productivity. Canada also benefits from its
close ties to the United States, which provides access to a large market for Canadian exports and
which saw similar growth over the same period.
The Canadian economy contracted by 5.2% in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic led to the
introduction of strict health containment measures. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce
back in 2021, with a growth rate of 4.5%, followed by expected further growth of 3.1% in 2022.
Consequently, on an annual basis, output is judged to have stood 2.1% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Canada has not been spared the inflationary pressures faced by most economies worldwide in 2022.
Inflation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure stood at 6.9% in October 2022, more than three
times the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% target. Inflation has, however, showed signs of peaking, having
fallen across three successive readings since June’s 39-year high of 8.1%. It has also tended to remain
less severe than the price pressures observed in countries including US, UK, Spain, and Germany. In
order to ease the impact of high inflation on the most vulnerable, in summer 2022, the Canadian
Government launched a CAD 12 billion ‘Affordability Plan’, which includes measures such as one-time
housing affordability payments, increasing worker benefits, reducing the cost of child care and an
above-inflation increase for some state pension benefits. Moreover, the Bank of Canada has followed
a sharp upward trajectory in interest rates, hiking its target overnight rate from 0.25% in February
2022 to 4.25% in December of the same year.
Canada
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-15%
-6%
-3%
-
1%
8%
20%
32%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,469
1,828
1,649
1,988
2,158
2,159
2,438
2,959
3,591
Rank
9
10
10
9
8
8
10
10
10
65
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Looking ahead, Canada’s economy is expected to grow by just 0.6% in 2023, before growth is
expected to accelerate slightly in 2024, to 1.8%. Both of these figures, however, stand above the
average expected performance across the G7.
Key for Canada’s medium-term growth is its ability to leverage its skilled labour force for the tech
economy and the outlook for global demand for the country’s natural resource exports. The path of
oil prices and demand have direct economic consequences in Canada, which remains a risk amid a
renewed global emphasis on climate protection. Canada has set a commitment in law to achieve net
zero emissions by 2050, a goal that will be particularly challenging to meet, due to its dependence
on fossil fuels.
Our central forecasts suggest that the annual rate of GDP growth in Canada will average 2.0%
between 2027 and 2037. This is expected to see the country lose its current eighth place ranking to
Brazil by 2026, before being overtaken by Korea in 2027 and settling in tenth position.
66
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Central African Republic
As of 2022, the Central African Republic is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,088
and is classified as a low-income country. The economy saw output growth in all three years from
2020 to 2022, with growth amounting to 1.0%, 1.0%, and an estimated 1.5%, respectively.
Despite sluggish output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 6.5%. This has
raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. However, the estimated growth in
consumer prices over 2022 was not substantially higher than in recent years, with the previous
decade's average standing at 4.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have reached 52.1% in 2022, compared to 47.6%
the previous year.
The regulatory environment in the Central African Republic is less competitive than that of many of its
peers. The country ranked in 184th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In
2016, its ranking was 188th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.6% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
stand at 3.7% per year. In the coming 15 years, the Central African Republic is expected to move up
one place in the World Economic League Table, from 166th position in 2022 to 165th place in 2037.
Central African Republic
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
3%
24%
-10%
-1%
-
3%
19%
43%
71%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.8
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.6
3.6
4.7
6.2
Rank
163
163
168
163
166
166
164
164
165
67
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Chad
As of 2022, Chad is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,719 and is classified as a
low-income country. The economy saw contractions of 2.2% and 1.1% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
This was followed by an expected rebound of 3.3% in 2022, bringing output to 2019 levels.
Unlike many other economies grappling with high inflation, the country managed to keep consumer
price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 4.9% in 2022. However, this growth in consumer
prices was higher than that for the output of the economy, suggesting there might be a stagflationary
trade-off between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the
previous decade's average of 1.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 44.7% in 2022, down from 56.0%
the previous year.
The performance of the economy is constrained by a regulatory environment that can inhibit private
sector activity. In 2020, Chad ranked 182nd in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 183rd in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.5% between 2023
and 2037. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of Chad
to remain stable at 142nd.
Chad
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-33%
-11%
-6%
-3%
-
3%
19%
41%
68%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
12
10
12
12
12
16
22
28
Rank
127
128
142
140
142
142
143
142
142
68
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Chile
Classified as a high-income country, Chile had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $28,887
in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 6.1% in 2020. Nonetheless, the
economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 11.7%, followed by expected
further growth of 2.0% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 7.1% above 2019 levels
in 2022.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 11.6%. The economy
therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. The estimated
growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 3.2%.
One of the factors boosting growth in 2022 was an estimated 1.0 percentage point fall in the
unemployment rate to 7.9%. This is a positive trend for the economy, with a stronger labour market
likely to help to deliver more sustained growth in the years ahead. The public finances remain in good
shape, with government debt as a share of GDP declining ever so slightly to an estimated 36.2% in
2022, down from 36.3% in 2021. Relatively low levels of government debt have been facilitated by a
disciplined approach to fiscal policy. Indeed, the government ran a fiscal surplus amounting to an
expected 0.9% of GDP in 2022, whilst other countries faced ballooning public finances as a result of
the pandemic and rising inflation.
Chile has set a legal commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.
Over the four years to 2020, Chile became less competitive in terms of its regulatory environment,
with the country falling to 59th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016,
the country's ranking was 47th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
1.7%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to accelerate to an average of 2.5% per year. In the coming 15 years, Chile is expected to drift down
one place in the World Economic League Table, from 45th position in 2022 to 46th place in 2037.
Chile
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-34%
-20%
-11%
-2%
-
-1%
9%
23%
39%
Current price GDP, USD bn
173
267
276
317
302
300
408
509
634
Rank
45
38
44
44
45
47
45
46
46
69
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
China
China is an upper-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $21,291 as of 2022.
The country defied international trends by growing 2.2% in 2020. This was followed by a further
expansion of 8.1% in 2021. 2022, however, is expected to have seen a slowdown in growth,
amounting to 3.2%.
China’s official growth targets are to achieve ‘high income’ status by 2025, a status that has probably
already been reached, and a new target to achieve the status of a medium level developed economy
by 2035. The latter has been taken to mean achieving GNI per capita of $20,000 in PPP dollars using
the Atlas method (China’s GNI per capita on that measure was $11,890 in 2021 though the data has
been revised up since). Our forecasts predict that China’s growth may be slightly short of what is
required to hit this target.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with 2.2% expected inflation.
This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in inflation seen in many economies worldwide. The
estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 only slightly exceeded the previous decade's
average of 2.1%.
We estimate that the Chinese economy grew by 3.2% in 2022. This was well below forecast and
seems to have been caused by lockdowns associated with its Zero Covid policy. Zero Covid has been
abandoned in Hong Kong, albeit not entirely successfully, and we expect that it will not be
abandoned fully on the mainland until the population is better vaccinated. Authorities must balance
the sizeable risks to public health from loosening restrictions before immunity levels are sufficiently
elevated with those to the economy from keeping activity supressed.
Meanwhile, a feature of 2022 was the continued tightness of the labour market. Although
unemployment is forecast to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% in 2022, it remains relatively low.
This will have provided a boost to consumer spending in recent months. While government debt as a
share of GDP remains at a moderate level compared to some economies in the region, it is
anticipated to have reach 76.9% in 2022, up from 71.5% in 2021.
Whilst a legal commitment has not yet been set by China, an ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by
2060 has been mentioned in a government policy document.
China came 31st in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the country's
regulatory environment made significant strides forward relative to other comparable countries. In
2016, the country's ranking was 77th.
China
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-65%
-45%
-22%
-3%
-
4%
22%
44%
67%
Current price GDP, USD bn
3,556
8,540
12,265
17,745
18,256
18,263
27,474
35,695
45,490
Rank
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
70
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Despite its current strong economic momentum, the Chinese economy faces mounting headwinds.
Its property sector, which has fuelled much of its past expansion, is over leveraged and much of the
sector has had to be bailed out by its banks. Its demographics are becoming unfavourable with a
sharply aging population as a result of its now scrapped one child policy. It has become embroiled in
a trade war with the US, which is likely to limit its access to technology, though the country has had
great success in developing its own technology.
Finally, official policy is for China to reunify the nation with Taiwan. President Xi has placed increasing
emphasis on this in recent months, despite Taiwan’s unwillingness. If China attempts to impose its
will on Taiwan against Taiwanese wishes, it is likely that there will be further sanctions imposed on
Chinese exports at least to Western economies.
We have assumed a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan scenario and hence forecast that the annual
rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 4.0% between 2023 and 2027, before slowing to
an average of 3.2% per year between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022 and 2037, China is forecast to
move from second place to first place in the World Economic League Table during the 2030s, though
this is now expected to occur in 2036, rather than in 2030 as we expected a year ago.
71
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Colombia
As of 2022, Colombia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $18,693 and is classified
as an upper-middle-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 7.0% in 2020, growth,
at 10.7%, was seen in 2021. Further growth of 7.6% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving
output 10.7% above 2019 levels.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 9.7% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 3.8%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 was aided by an estimated 2.5 percentage-
point decline in the unemployment rate to 11.3%. However, despite the decline in 2022,
unemployment remains high, which will constrain levels of consumer spending in the coming years.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 61.1% in 2022, down from 64.6% the
previous year.
Despite not having yet set a legal commitment, Colombia has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by
2050.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Colombia ranked 67th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking
of 55th in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.0%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to accelerate slightly to an average of 3.3% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Colombia is forecast
to move from 44th place to 38th place in the World Economic League Table, a six-place
improvement in the rankings.
Colombia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-40%
-27%
-15%
-7%
-
2%
16%
36%
61%
Current price GDP, USD bn
206
371
312
314
322
302
523
677
878
Rank
39
33
41
45
44
46
42
41
38
72
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Comoros
As of 2022, Comoros is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,364 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 0.3%
in 2020. The economy experienced a quick bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.2%, followed
by expected further growth of 3.0% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 5.0%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 11.4%, though it
has not been an outlier compared to the rest of the global economy. Nevertheless, this high rate of
inflation stands significantly higher than the previous decade’s average of 1.4%. Therefore, demand-
side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to an estimated 34.5% in 2022, compared to 26.2% in 2021,
although this still remains moderate. This relatively low debt burden provided the government with
the fiscal headroom to operate an expected budget deficit of 6.5% in 2022, which has likely been
important in bolstering demand in the economy.
The performance of the private sector in Comoros is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 160th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 156th in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will rise to an average of
4.1%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to accelerate further
to an average of 4.4% per year. This growth trajectory will see Comoros climb from 177th place in the
World Economic League Table in 2022 to 175th by 2037, a gain of two places.
Comoros
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-35%
-22%
-10%
-3%
-
3%
22%
51%
87%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.9
2.6
3.6
Rank
175
179
180
177
177
178
177
176
175
73
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a low-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted
GDP per capita of $1,328 as of 2022. Following the rare achievement of economic growth in 2020
(GDP grew by 1.7%), the economy expanded further in 2021, by 6.2%. Growth is set to have remained
broadly unchanged in 2022 at 6.1%.
Inflation is expected to have come in at 8.4% in 2022, below the previous decade's average of 9.7%.
Government debt is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 14.7% of GDP in 2022,
compared to 16.1% in 2021. The fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 3.6% of GDP in 2022.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by the DRC, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 30.0% compared to 2005 levels by 2030.
The performance of the private sector in the DRC is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 183rd out of 190 in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 6.8%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to decline to an average of 5.0% per year. This impressive growth path would see the DRC overtake
many of its peers in the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve
from 84th place in 2022 to 72nd place by 2037, a 12-place improvement in the rankings.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-56%
-41%
-21%
-6%
-
7%
39%
77%
126%
Current price GDP, USD bn
17
29
38
57
65
74
101
142
199
Rank
106
99
95
87
84
79
78
74
72
74
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Republic of Congo
As of 2022, the Republic of Congo is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,682 and
is classified as a lower-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 8.1% in 2020, the
economy shrank further in 2021, by 0.6%. However, following this poor economic performance,
output is forecast to have returned to growth in 2022, at 4.3%. Output therefore remained 4.7%
below 2019 levels in 2022, with a catch-up to pre-pandemic levels expected in 2024.
Unlike many other economies grappling with high inflation, the country managed to keep consumer
price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 3.5% in 2022. However the estimated growth in
consumer prices over 2022 did still slightly exceed the previous decade's average of 2.2%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen to 82.0% in 2022, down from 103.6%
in 2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning public finances in many countries. Although public
debt relative to the size of the economy is uncomfortably high, the government has achieved a
reasonably disciplined fiscal stance in recent history, with an estimated surplus of 9.0% of GDP in
2022.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by the Republic of Congo, a government policy
document has referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 25.0% compared to 2019 levels
by 2030.
The Republic of Congo came 180th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings,
suggesting that the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector. Similarly, in
2016, the country's ranking was 179th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.4% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 3.3% on average each
year. In the coming 15 years, the Republic of Congo is expected to broadly remain steady in the World
Economic League Table, moving overall from 137th position in 2022 to 138th place in 2037.
Republic of Congo
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-13%
27%
11%
-4%
-
5%
18%
39%
64%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
18
11
13
14
14
18
24
31
Rank
125
113
140
136
137
136
139
140
138
75
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Costa Rica
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Costa Rica had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $24,837 in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 4.1% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a robust bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 7.8%,
followed by expected further growth of 3.8% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
7.3% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 8.9%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 2.3%.
The economy grew well in 2022 in spite of a high rate of unemployment. The share of the labour
force that is out of work is thought to have declined by 1.2 percentage points to 12.5% in 2022.
Although this is moving in the right direction, this high level of unemployment will constrain levels of
consumer spending in the coming years. Government debt as a share of GDP remained broadly
stable, edging down to an estimated 67.6% in 2022, from 68.2% in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Costa Rica has been inhibited by a regulatory and
institutional environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In
2020, the country ranked 74th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 58th
in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.1%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to be 3.2% per year.
This growth trajectory will see Costa Rica climb from 83rd place in the World Economic League Table
in 2022 to 76th by 2037, a gain of seven places.
Costa Rica
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-38%
-26%
-11%
-4%
-
3%
17%
37%
61%
Current price GDP, USD bn
27
47
61
64
67
76
102
131
170
Rank
87
83
77
81
83
78
77
76
76
76
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Côte d'Ivoire
As of 2022, Côte d'Ivoire is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,397 and is
classified as a lower-middle-income country. The economy was an outlier in 2020, growing by 2.0%
in spite of the pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 7.0% in 2021. Despite the bleak
global economic climate, growth remained strong in 2022, where it estimated that the economy
grew by 5.5%.
However, the rather strong growth output growth was paired with a similar level of inflation, which is
expected to have come in at a moderate 5.5% in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.5%. Looking ahead, policymakers may wish
to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a more desirable balance between
inflation and growth.
While government debt as a share of GDP remains at a moderate level compared to some
economies in the region, it is expected to have reached 56.0% in 2022, up from 52.1% in 2021.
Over the four years to 2020, Côte d'Ivoire made substantial progress and became more competitive
in terms of its regulatory environment, with the country reaching 110th place in the World Bank's 2020
Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 141st in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 6.3% between
2023 and 2027, before stabilising to an average of 6.0% per year between 2028 and 2037. Over the
next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Côte d'Ivoire will move swiftly up the World Economic League Table
rankings, from 81st position in 2022 to 65th in 2037.
Côte d'Ivoire
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-49%
-23%
-5%
-
6%
36%
82%
143%
Current price GDP, USD bn
28
37
52
70
68
72
116
170
250
Rank
85
92
84
75
81
83
71
65
65
77
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Croatia
After suffering an 8.1% GDP contraction in 2020, Croatia saw growth of 10.2% in 2021. Further growth
of 5.9% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 7.3% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
Croatia is expected to have been the fourth fastest growing EU economy in 2022.
The easing of global travel restrictions supported the country’s return to growth since 2021. Prior to
the pandemic, roughly a quarter (24.8%) of the country’s economy was accounted for by travel and
tourism – by far the highest share in the EU.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 9.8%. This well
exceeds the previous decade's average of 1.0%. Annual price rises accelerated throughout the year,
reaching 13.2% in October. This marked the highest reading since 2004, when comparable records
began.
Unemployment and public finances were both on an encouraging trend in 2022. The unemployment
rate is expected to have fallen by 1.2 percentage points to 6.9%, while government debt as a share of
GDP is thought to have eased to 72.6% from 79.8% the previous year.
On 1 January 2023 Croatia will become the 20th member of the Eurozone, replacing its kuna with the
euro. Local officials are hoping that the move will provide some relief from immediate inflationary
pressures. While the euro area itself is facing inflation at five times the target, the price rise peaks in
Croatia have been even worse. In the longer term, Croatia is hoping that the adoption of the euro will
boost trade with the rest of the currency area and help to draw in even more tourists from the bloc.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.9%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 2.5% per year. In the coming 15 years, Croatia is expected to slightly drift down the
World Economic League Table, from 80th position in 2022 to 82nd place in 2037.
Croatia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-12%
-20%
-12%
-6%
-
3%
15%
31%
48%
Current price GDP, USD bn
61
57
56
68
69
71
97
121
151
Rank
65
74
80
78
80
84
80
80
82
78
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Cyprus
Classified as a high-income country, Cyprus had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$49,504 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 5.0% in 2020, the economy grew by 5.6% in 2021
and an estimated 3.5% in 2022, bringing output 3.8% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 8.0% in 2022, far in excess of the previous decade's average of 0.4%.
Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the
longer-term.
The unemployment rate fell by an estimated 0.7 percentage points to 6.7% in 2022. Less
encouragingly, the public finances are in a precarious position, with an estimated government debt to
GDP ratio of 93.6% in 2022. However, this is down on the 103.6% ratio recorded the previous year.
Efforts have been made to address the issue of public sector debt, with the fiscal deficit standing at
an estimated 0.5% of GDP in 2022.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Cyprus ranked 54th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of
41st in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up to an average of 2.9% between 2028 and 2037. In 2037, Cebr expects the
World Economic League Table ranking of Cyprus to be the same as it is in 2022 (111th), with only
moderate fluctuations in the interim years.
Cyprus
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-19%
-19%
-13%
-3%
-
2%
14%
32%
53%
Current price GDP, USD bn
24
25
23
28
27
28
35
46
60
Rank
90
104
109
105
111
110
110
109
111
79
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Czech Republic
As of 2022, the Czech Republic is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $48,919 and is
classified as a high-income country. A GDP contraction of 5.5% in 2020 was followed by expansions
of 3.5% and 1.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This left output 0.4% below 2019 levels. The
economy is expected to reach pre-Covid levels in 2023.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot at an estimated 16.3%, well above the
previous decade's average of 2.1%. The economy therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is set to have fallen by 0.3 percentage points to just 2.5%. The
tightness of the labour market will enable some resilience in household expenditure in the coming
months. Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 41.5% in 2022, slightly down from
42.0% the previous year.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by the Czech Republic, a government policy
document has referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 30.0% compared to 2005
levels by 2030.
Although deteriorating, the regulatory environment in the Czech Republic is more competitive than
most of its peers. The country ranked in 41st place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index, compared to 30th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 2.8% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.5% on average each
year. This growth trajectory will see the Czech Republic fall from 47th place in the World Economic
League Table in 2022 to 48th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of one place.
Czech Republic
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-19%
-6%
-2%
-
1%
15%
30%
47%
Current price GDP, USD bn
190
209
219
282
294
305
365
454
564
Rank
41
49
48
48
47
45
47
47
48
80
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Denmark
Denmark is a high-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $69,845 as of
2022. Following a GDP contraction of 2.0% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.9% in 2021 and an
estimated 2.6% in 2022, bringing output 5.4% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
Consumer prices are set to have increased by 7.2% over 2022, well above the previous decade's
average of 0.8%.
The unemployment rate is expected to have increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2% in 2022.
Despite the marginal rise, this remains comparatively low and will support household incomes and
thus levels of spending in the coming period. The public finances are in good shape, with government
debt as a share of GDP expected to have stood at 31.8% in 2022, down from 36.6% the previous year.
The government has maintained discipline with its fiscal policy, with an estimated fiscal surplus
equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2022. The strength of the public finances means that country has room
to harness growth-augmenting expansionary fiscal policies in future.
Denmark has set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Denmark’s regulatory environment is more competitive than most of its peers. The country ranked in
fourth place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In the 2016 edition, the country
ranked third.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 1.6% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.8% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Denmark is forecast to move from 40th to 43rd place in the World
Economic League Table, a three-place fall in the rankings.
Denmark
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-16%
-18%
-8%
-3%
-
1%
8%
18%
29%
Current price GDP, USD bn
319
327
332
398
384
385
499
600
721
Rank
29
34
38
37
40
40
43
43
43
81
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Djibouti
As of 2022, Djibouti is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,514 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The country defied international trends by growing 1.2% in 2020. This
was followed by a further expansion of 4.8% in 2021. 2022, however, saw a slowdown in growth,
amounting to an estimated 3.6%.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 6.6%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Estimated inflation in 2022 was above the previous decade's average of 1.6%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have climbed to 50.1% in 2022, up from 46.0%
the previous year.
The performance of the private sector in Djibouti has been helped by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 112th in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 162nd in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 5.8% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an even faster rate of
6.0% on average each year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Djibouti will see a modest
improvement in its ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 159th place in 2022 to
156th place in 2037.
Djibouti
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-52%
-40%
-18%
-3%
-
5%
33%
77%
137%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.2
1.9
2.8
3.4
3.7
4.0
5.7
8.4
12.3
Rank
171
168
164
159
159
158
158
158
156
82
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Dominica
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Dominica had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $13,030 in 2022. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 16.6% in 2020, the economy saw
4.8% growth in 2021 and an expected 6.0% in 2022. As such, output in 2022 is thought to have stood
7.3% below 2019 levels, with a catch-up expected in 2024.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 5.3%. This
implies that demand-side policies may be required to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-
term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average
of 0.5%.
Government debt as a share of GDP reached an estimated 102.8% in 2022. This is almost equal to the
102.7% registered the previous year. The issue of public sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit
that is estimated to have stood at 4.0% in 2022. The pandemic period and more recent cost-of-living
crisis have increased deficit spending in many economies worldwide.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Dominica, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 44.7% compared to 2014 levels by 2030.
Dominica came 111th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that the
country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 86th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.7%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 2.5% per year. In the coming 15 years, Dominica is forecast to retain its 2022 World
Economic League Table position of 183rd.
Dominica
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-3%
2%
-1%
-6%
-
5%
20%
36%
54%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
Rank
184
185
185
183
183
183
183
183
183
83
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Dominican Republic
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, the Dominican Republic had an estimated PPP
adjusted GDP per capita of $24,120 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 6.7% in 2020, the
economy grew by 12.3% in 2021 and an estimated 5.2% in 2022, bringing output 10.2% above 2019
levels.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 9.0% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 3.5%.
Underpinning the robust GDP growth in 2022 has been a resilient labour market. In 2022, the
unemployment rate fell by an anticipated 0.9 percentage points to 6.4%. Government debt as a
share of GDP fell to an estimated 58.4% in 2022, down from 63.1% the previous year.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 4.9%.
However, between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
accelerate slightly to 5.0% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that the Dominican
Republic will see a modest improvement in its ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising
from 66th place in 2022 to 62nd place in 2037.
Dominican Republic
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-40%
-19%
-5%
-
4%
27%
62%
107%
Current price GDP, USD bn
44
61
80
95
113
125
157
221
310
Rank
73
71
68
66
66
61
64
63
62
84
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Ecuador
Ecuador is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $12,763
as of 2022. A GDP contraction of 7.8% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 4.2% and 2.9% in 2021
and 2022, respectively. This left output 1.1% below 2019 pre-Covid levels. The economy is expected to
reach pre-crisis levels in 2023.
As with output, consumer prices are expected to have grown moderately in 2022, at an anticipated
3.2%. Inflation has therefore posed less of an economic headache in comparison to many other
economies worldwide. Still, the estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 1.7%.
Despite a relatively poor output performance, the labour market remains strong. Indeed, the
unemployment rate is expected to have declined by 0.2 percentage points to 4.0% in 2022.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 58.9% in 2022, down from 62.2%
the previous year.
The performance of the private sector in Ecuador has been inhibited by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In 2020, the
country ranked 129th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 110th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow slightly to an average of 2.8% between
2023 and 2037. This growth path would see Ecuador fall behind many of its peers in the World
Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will worsen from 63rd place in 2022 to 73rd
place by 2037, a dramatic ten-place decline in the rankings.
Ecuador
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-28%
-9%
0%
-3%
-
3%
15%
32%
51%
Current price GDP, USD bn
51
88
104
106
115
122
155
163
192
Rank
68
65
62
64
63
65
65
70
73
85
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Egypt
As of 2022, Egypt is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $15,959 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The economy expanded by 3.5% in 2020, unlike many other
economies grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Following this, in 2021, output grew by
3.3%, after which growth is expected to have accelerated to 6.6% for 2022.
Inflation stood at an estimated 8.5% in 2022, below the previous decade's average of 11.5%.
In November 2022, Sharm el-Sheikh hosted the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference
(COP27). Among other outcomes, participants reached an agreement regarding loss and damage
compensation for countries facing climate-induced disasters.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 will have been tempered somewhat by a
relatively high unemployment rate of 7.3%. The high rate of unemployment will reduce the amount
that households can collectively spend and could therefore weigh on growth in the future. The public
finances are in a precarious position, with an estimated government debt to GDP ratio of 89.2% in
2022. A high fiscal deficit of 6.2% of GDP is expected to have been seen in 2022. Fiscal consolidation
will eventually be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not destabilise the economy.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 4.8%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 4.6% per
year. Still, in the coming 15 years, Egypt is expected to gradually move up in the World Economic
League Table, from 37th position in 2022 to 31st place in 2037.
Egypt
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-49%
-38%
-21%
-6%
-
4%
26%
58%
98%
Current price GDP, USD bn
137
279
247
423
403
380
578
796
1,095
Rank
50
37
46
33
37
42
36
34
31
86
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
El Salvador
As of 2022, El Salvador is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $10,576 and is
classified as a lower-middle-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 8.2% in 2020,
growth, at 10.3%, was seen in 2021. Further growth of 2.6% is expected to have been seen in 2022,
leaving output 3.9% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 7.3%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous
decade's average of 0.9%.
The high share of the labour force not in work has been a barrier to growth for the economy. This
remains the case despite the unemployment rate having fallen by an expected 2.1 percentage points
to 8.2% in 2022. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen to 80.3% in 2022,
down from 82.4% in 2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning public finances in many
countries. A fiscal deficit of 4.8% of GDP is expected to have been seen in 2022. Fiscal consolidation
will eventually be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not destabilise the economy.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 1.8%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will accelerate slightly
to 2.0% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that El Salvador will fall significantly in the
World Economic League Table rankings, from 102nd position in 2022 to 120th in 2037.
El Salvador
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-25%
-18%
-8%
-3%
-
2%
9%
21%
33%
Current price GDP, USD bn
17
21
25
29
32
34
39
44
52
Rank
105
108
105
103
102
101
105
112
120
87
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $19,433 as of 2022. The economy shrank by 4.2% in 2020, followed by a further contraction of
3.2% in 2021. Nonetheless, output is expected to have risen in 2022, by 5.8%, although this leaves
activity 1.9% below 2019 levels. The country is not expected to see its GDP catch up to pre-Covid
levels in the next five years.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth compared to global trends, the economy also
saw a rather rapid increase in consumer prices, with 5.1% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated
inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 2.2%.
The public finances remain in good nick, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to an
estimated 27.1% in 2022, down from 42.8% in 2021. Despite the pandemic and global inflationary
pressures, public spending is also under control, with a fiscal surplus of 3.7% of GDP expected for
2022. This - together with the low level of government debt - permits the country some fiscal space
to pursue expansionary fiscal policy, in order to sustain growth in the years ahead.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Equatorial Guinea, a government policy
document has referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 50.0% compared to 2010 levels
by 2050.
The regulatory environment in Equatorial Guinea is less competitive than that of many of its peers.
The country ranked in 178th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its
ranking was 175th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 4.8% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 0.1% on average each
year. The next 15 years are set to see Equatorial Guinea move swiftly down the rankings of the World
Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 131st in 2022 to 154th in 2037,
a sizeable 23-place fall in the rankings.
Equatorial Guinea
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
22%
53%
15%
-6%
-
-3%
-22%
-22%
-22%
Current price GDP, USD bn
13
22
12
12
16
14
11
12
13
Rank
112
106
134
138
131
137
149
152
154
88
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Eritrea
Classified as a low-income country, Eritrea had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,078
in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 0.5% in 2020. Nonetheless, the
economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.9%, followed by expected
further growth of 2.6% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 5.0% above 2019 levels
in 2022.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 7.4%. The economy
therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. Estimated
inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 2.9%.
Standing at an estimated 164.7% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high.
However, the public finances are moving in the right direction, with the debt to GDP ratio in 2022
down from 176.2% in 2021. The government is expected to have run a relatively tight ship over the
past year. Indeed, the fiscal deficit in 2022 is thought to have been a mere 1.3% of GDP. This is in spite
of the economic and fiscal challenges generated by the pandemic and mounting global cost-of-living
pressures. While fiscal consolidation will be necessary in the future, the challenging circumstances
may require more government spending than would otherwise be advisable in the short term.
Eritrea came 189th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings, unmoved since 2016,
suggesting that the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 2.9% between 2023
and 2027, and remain at this level on average over the subsequent ten years. Between 2022 and
2037, Eritrea is forecast to move from 168th place to 171st place in the World Economic League Table,
a three-place fall in the rankings.
Eritrea
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-30%
-10%
-19%
-3%
-
3%
15%
33%
54%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.0
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.9
4.9
Rank
173
166
170
168
168
165
169
169
171
89
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Estonia
Estonia’s GDP per capita reached an estimated $46,126 in PPP adjusted terms in 2022. Its economy is
classified as high income. Estonia’s GDP per capita is amongst the highest of the former Soviet
states, falling only behind Lithuania’s estimated value of $46,159.
As with many other economies, Estonia witnessed an economic contraction in 2020. This was much
smaller than many other European states, however, amounting to a drop of 0.6%. This was followed
by strong growth of 8.0% in 2021, as the economy recovered from the pandemic. Prior to the
pandemic, Estonia had seen impressive growth, fuelled by a burgeoning tech cluster and start-up
culture.
Growth is expected to have slowed significantly in 2022, however, amounting to an annual uptick of
1.0%. This slowdown has been driven by geopolitical uncertainty, particularly due to Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine. Estonia shares a border with Russia and has historically relied on the country for a great
deal of its trade. For instance, Russia was the eighth largest market for Estonian exports in 2021.
Meanwhile, Russia was Estonia’s second-largest import partner, only being outweighed by imports
from Finland.
Estonia’s reliance on Russian trade has had two effects. From the demand side, weakening
conditions in Russia have impacted demand for Estonian imports. Meanwhile, on the supply side,
sanctions imposed by the West on Russia have exposed Estonia to significant price inflation, by
exacerbating existing supply chain disruptions and shortages. This latter effect has contributed to
annual inflation of 21.0% in 2022, the highest of all EU member states.
Estonia’s weaker expected growth in 2022 has seen it fall to 100th in the WELT rankings, down from
98th in 2021. Though a return to annual growth in excess of 3.0% is expected from 2024, this will not
have a significant impact on Estonia’s WELT ranking, with the country placing 99th by 2037.
Estonia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-26%
-14%
-1%
-
2%
17%
37%
62%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
23
27
37
39
42
55
73
98
Rank
92
105
102
98
100
98
100
99
99
90
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Eswatini
As of 2022, Eswatini is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $11,054 and is classified as
a lower-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 1.6% in 2020, the economy grew by
7.9% in 2021 and an estimated 2.4% in 2022, bringing output 8.8% above 2019 levels.
Alongside moderate GDP growth in 2022, inflation is expected to have stood at a relatively low 4.9%.
This implies a more favourable growth-inflation trade-off than those currently seen in many
economies worldwide. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 also stood below the
previous decade's average of 5.4%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have reached 45.8% in 2022, up from 45.0% the
previous year.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow slightly, to an average of 2.2% between 2023 and
2027. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.3% on average
each year. In the coming 15 years, Eswatini is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic
League Table, from 156th position in 2022 to 159th place in 2037.
Eswatini
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-31%
-21%
-13%
-2%
-
2%
11%
25%
40%
Current price GDP, USD bn
3.5
4.9
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.5
6.9
8.5
10.5
Rank
155
153
157
155
156
156
156
157
159
91
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Ethiopia
Classified as a low-income country, Ethiopia had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,434
in 2022. The country defied international trends by growing 6.1% in 2020. This was followed by a
further expansion of 6.3% in 2021. 2022, however saw a slowdown in growth, amounting to an
anticipated 3.8%.
Despite this slowdown, consumer prices saw rapid growth in 2022, with inflation over the year
expected to have amounted to 33.6%. Compared to the rest of the world, only eight other countries
are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 was more than twice the previous decade's average of 14.3%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to an estimated
46.4% in 2022, from 53.0% in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Ethiopia is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 159th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, representing an improvement on its 2016 ranking of 165th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 6.3% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 6.0% on average each
year. The next 15 years are set to see Ethiopia climb rapidly up the rankings of the World Economic
League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 64th in 2022 to 55th in 2037, a sizeable
nine-place improvement in the rankings.
Ethiopia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-72%
-54%
-27%
-4%
-
5%
36%
82%
143%
Current price GDP, USD bn
19
42
77
99
114
111
186
274
402
Rank
99
89
69
65
64
68
61
59
55
92
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Fiji
As of 2022, Fiji is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $13,944 and is classified as an
upper-middle-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 17.0% in 2020, the economy shrank
further in 2021, by 5.1%. However, following this poor economic performance, output is forecast to
have returned to growth in 2022, at 12.5%. Output therefore remained 11.4% below 2019 levels in
2022, with a catch up to pre-pandemic levels expected in 2024.
Unlike many other economies grappling with high inflation, the country managed to keep consumer
price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 4.7% in 2022, while also seeing strong output
growth. Nonetheless, estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous
decade's average of 1.9%.
Alongside Fiji’s robust output performance in 2020, the labour market appears to be tightening.
Indeed, the unemployment rate is expected to have declined by 2.5 percentage points to 6.5% in
2022. Government debt as a share of GDP reached an estimated 91.3% in 2022. This is above the
already high 83.0% registered the previous year. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated
13.3% of GDP. Government spending likely played an important role in increasing demand in the
economy in 2022. However, the combination of high government debt and a large deficit paint a
worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in the coming years.
Fiji has set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Over the four years to 2020, Fiji became significantly less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 102nd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing
Business Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 79th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 5.2%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 3.5% per
year. Despite a predicted slowdown, this trajectory will see Fiji climb from 155th place in the World
Economic League Table in 2022 to 152nd by 2037, a gain of three places.
Fiji
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-18%
-12%
9%
-11%
-
7%
29%
53%
82%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
4
5
4
5
5
8
10
14
Rank
152
155
152
156
155
155
154
154
152
93
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Finland
Finland is a high-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $58,659 as of
2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 2.2% in 2020. Nonetheless, the
economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 3.0%, followed by expected
further growth of 2.1% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 2.9% above 2019 levels
in 2022.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 6.5%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 1.2%.
The high share of the labour force not in work has been a barrier to growth for the economy. This
remains the case despite the unemployment rate having fallen by an expected 0.6 percentage points
to 7.0% in 2022. While government debt as a share of GDP remains at a moderate level compared to
some economies in the region, it is expected to have reached 66.7% in 2022, up from 66.2% in 2021.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Finland, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2035.
The performance of the private sector in Finland is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is highly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 20th in the
World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, although this was a drop compared to its 2016 ranking of
13th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.1% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up to an average of 1.4% between 2028 and 2037. Over the next 15 years, Cebr
forecasts that Finland will see a slight worsening of its position in the World Economic League Table,
dropping from 49th place in 2022 to 52nd place in 2037.
Finland
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-7%
-10%
-5%
-2%
-
0%
6%
13%
21%
Current price GDP, USD bn
256
258
256
298
280
285
333
392
461
Rank
36
42
45
46
49
49
50
51
52
94
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
France
Classified as a high-income country, France had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$56,200 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 7.9% in 2020, the French economy grew by 6.8% in
2021 and an anticipated 2.3% in 2022, bringing output 0.6% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
The April 2022 presidential election saw La République En Marche’s Emmanuel Macron win his re-
election bid. As was the case for a number of European countries, inflationary pressures and the
wider fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict dominated the public policy agenda throughout 2022.
France has gone further than many other countries to shield residents from the global spike in energy
prices. Measures include the state-owned energy company EDF (Électricité de France) capping price
rises at 4% for 2022 and at 15% for 2023, as well as one-off support payments to some households.
Even prior to the current energy crisis, France was at the forefront of addressing climate issues. It has
set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and Paris in particular has
implemented a number of initiatives to discourage personal vehicle use. A notable example is Paris
Respire, which sees cars banned from some areas of the city on the first Sunday of the month.
The growth outlook continues to be supported by France’s deliberate efforts to make itself more
fiscally attractive to high earners looking to relocate to the country, as well as by courting businesses
in high-growth industries. An example of this is the financial regulator’s (Autorité des marchés
financiers) decision in May 2022 to make France the first major European country to grant crypto
giant Binance regulatory approval as a digital assets service provider. The decision has, however,
been perceived by some in the field as somewhat of a gamble, as they have questioned if there is
sufficient domestic knowledge on the topic for effective regulation. While not without its risks, the
strategy to boost growth by targeting specific industries could significantly pay off for France in the
coming years.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 7.5% in 2022. While this strengthening of
the labour market is encouraging, the rate remains somewhat high and may be difficult to decrease
further in the immediate future amid softening growth and global headwinds.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 1.2%, but then
it is expected to accelerate to an average of 1.7% per annum from 2028 to 2037. Between 2022 and
2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of France to remain stable at 7th.
France
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-11%
-10%
-4%
-2%
-
0%
6%
15%
25%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2,661
2,685
2,594
2,957
2,755
2,797
3,312
3,906
4,606
Rank
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
95
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Gabon
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Gabon had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $18,088 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 1.9% in 2020, the economy grew by 1.5% in 2021
and an estimated 2.7% in 2022, bringing output 2.3% above 2019 levels.
Alongside moderate GDP growth in 2022, inflation is expected to have stood at a low 3.5%. This
implies a more favourable growth-inflation trade-off than that currently seen in many economies
worldwide. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's
average of 2.1%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to an estimated
54.0% in 2022, from 65.8% in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Gabon is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 169th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 164th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.8% between 2023
and 2027, where it will remain over the following nine years. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts
that the position of Gabon in the World Economic League Table will deteriorate, with its ranking
dipping from 115th to 126th by 2037. This would represent an 11-place fall in the rankings.
Gabon
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-33%
-21%
-7%
-3%
-
4%
20%
45%
75%
Current price GDP, USD bn
12
17
15
20
22
22
26
35
46
Rank
114
116
122
114
115
116
124
125
126
96
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
The Gambia
The Gambia is a low-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,640 as of
2022. The economy saw output growth in all three years from 2020 to 2022, with growth amounting
to 0.6%, 4.3%, and an estimated 5.0%, respectively.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 11.3% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 6.5%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen to 80.6% in 2022, down from 83.8% in
2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning public finances in many countries. The issue of public
sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that is estimated to have stood at 4.4% in 2022. The
pandemic period and more recent cost-of-living crisis are expected to have increased deficit spending
in many economies worldwide.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, the Gambia has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The performance of the private sector in the Gambia is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 155th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 157th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 5.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.0% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, the Gambia is forecast to move from 169th place to 163rd place in the
World Economic League Table, a six-place improvement in the rankings.
The Gambia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-39%
-29%
-20%
-5%
-
6%
32%
68%
115%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.3
1.4
1.5
2.0
2.2
2.3
3.3
4.6
6.5
Rank
170
173
175
170
169
168
167
165
163
97
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Georgia
Georgia is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $19,789
as of 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 6.8% in 2020, a turn-around of 10.4% growth
was seen in 2021. Further growth of 9.0% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 12.1%
above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 11.6%. Demand-side
policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. Estimated inflation
in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 3.6%.
The economy’s robust growth in 2022 occurred in spite of a high rate of unemployment. The share of
the labour force that is out of work is thought to have declined by 1.9 percentage points to 18.7% in
2022. The public finances are in good shape, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to
have stood at 39.8% in 2022, down from 49.5% the previous year. Public spending is under control,
with an expected fiscal deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2022. This - together with the low level of
government debt - provides space for expansionary fiscal policy to support growth and mitigate
against various headwinds in the coming years.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Georgia, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 35.0% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
Over the four years to 2020, Georgia became more competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country reaching seventh place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing
Business Index. In 2016, the country’s ranking was 22nd.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 5.0% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up slightly to an average of 5.2% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Georgia is expected to gradually move up in the World Economic League Table, from 112th
position in 2022 to 108th place in 2037.
Georgia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-33%
-19%
-8%
-
4%
27%
64%
111%
Current price GDP, USD bn
10
16
16
19
25
29
32
45
63
Rank
120
118
117
118
112
109
114
110
108
98
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Germany
Germany is a high-income economy with an estimated PPP-adjusted GDP per capita of $63,835 in
2022. The country is a founding member of the European Union as well as its largest economy. It is
famed for its highly productive manufacturing sector, which accounts for a larger share of GDP
compared to other advanced economies of similar income levels. In 2021, manufacturing accounted
for 18.3% of value added, down from a near-term peak of 20.7% in 2016.
The outsize role of Germany’s industrial sector has meant the country was particularly exposed to the
surge in energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent reduction of
Russian flows of natural gas into Europe later in the year. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted to the
outbreak of the war in his ‘Zeitenwende’ speech, outlining a radical shift in Germany’s energy and
security policy, which had previously been built on integrating Russia into the European community
through trade and energy imports.
In 2021, Germany relied on Russia for 55% of its natural gas imports. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine,
the country decided to replace all Russian energy imports by 2024. To that end the country has
sought to purchase liquified natural gas from other sources such as the US, Canada, and Qatar. Other
measures taken include short-term lifetime extensions of nuclear power plants, accelerated
deployment of renewable energy capacity, the return of coal-fired plants, and incentivising energy
savings.
The measures seem to have had some effect, with German gas consumption in October and
November 2022 well below the levels of the previous year, while industrial production has remained
relatively resilient. Nevertheless, it is expected that European energy markets will remain tight in
2023 and gas shortages could reappear in the case of a cold snap. Against this backdrop, we expect
German GDP to contract by 0.8% in 2023, following an expansion of 1.4% in 2022.
Germany’s labour market remained tight at the end of 2022 with unemployment standing at a record
low of 3.0% in October. Meanwhile, at 71%, Germany’s debt to GDP ratio is moderate, allowing the
country to react to the European energy and security crisis with substantial fiscal packages. This has
included a €100 billion spending package to modernise and upgrade Germany’s armed forces, as well
as a €99 billion package to mitigate the impacts of higher energy costs for households and
businesses. Germany has set a commitment in law to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 1.1% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent ten years, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.5% on average
each year. As such, in the coming 15 years, Germany is expected to fall slightly in the World Economic
League Table, from fourth position in 2022 to fifth place in 2037.
Germany
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-14%
-11%
-2%
-1%
-
-1%
6%
14%
23%
Current price GDP, USD bn
3,426
3,529
3,690
4,263
4,001
4,111
4,949
5,839
6,889
Rank
4
4
4
4
4
3
5
5
5
99
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Ghana
As of 2022, Ghana is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,780 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The country deviated from international trends by growing 0.5% in
2020. This was followed by a further expansion of 5.4% in 2021. 2022, however saw a slowdown in
growth, amounting to an anticipated 3.6%.
Consumer prices saw considerable growth in 2022, with inflation over the year expected to have
amounted to 27.2%. Compared to the rest of the world, only ten other countries are expected to have
seen a higher inflation rate over the year. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022
exceeded the previous decade's average of 11.8%.
The economy has a high level of public sector debt. The public finances deteriorated further in 2022,
with debt as a share of GDP expected to have risen to 90.7%, up from 82.1% in 2021. A high fiscal
deficit of 9.2% of GDP is expected to have been seen in 2022. In late 2022, the Government
suspended payments on parts of its external debt, raising concerns about the country’s fiscal
sustainability. Ghana saw a number of downgrades by credit rating agencies throughout the year,
making debt refinancing increasingly difficult.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, Ghana has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2070.
Despite its current economic quagmire, the annual rate of GDP growth in Ghana is set to accelerate
to an annual average of 4.8% over the next five years. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr
forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will increase further to 6.8% per year. Over the next 15
years, Cebr forecasts that Ghana will move swiftly up the World Economic League Table rankings,
from 85th position in 2022 to 66th in 2037.
Ghana
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-58%
-36%
-19%
-3%
-
3%
27%
76%
144%
Current price GDP, USD bn
34
57
60
79
64
50
101
154
236
Rank
82
75
78
72
85
90
79
72
66
100
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Greece
Classified as a high-income country, Greece had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$36,466 in 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 9.0% in 2020, growth was seen in 2021, at
a rate of 8.3%. Further growth of 5.2% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 3.7%
above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 9.2%. This was
particularly high when considering the previous decade's annual average of 0.1%. Demand-side
policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is thought to have fallen by 2.4 percentage points to 12.6%.
However, the share of the labour force out of work remains high, which may have dampened the
inflationary pressures seen over the past 12 months. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected
to have fallen to 177.6% in 2022, down from 199.4% in 2021, an impressive feat in a time of ballooning
public finances in many countries. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 4.4% of GDP.
Government spending likely played an important role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022,
but fiscal consolidation will be necessary in coming years to avoid the government debt burden
destabilising the economy.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Greece, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Greece came 79th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that the
country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 62nd.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.0%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to remain steady, at
an average of 2.1% per year. This growth trajectory will see Greece fall from 55th place in the World
Economic League Table in 2022 to 57th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of two places.
Greece
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
26%
-5%
-7%
-5%
-
2%
10%
22%
36%
Current price GDP, USD bn
316
242
200
216
221
227
272
329
398
Rank
30
44
52
52
55
55
54
55
57
101
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Grenada
Grenada is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$18,436 as of 2022. A contraction in GDP of 13.8% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 5.6% and
3.6% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This left output 5.6% below 2019 levels. The economy is instead
expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2024.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.5% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Nevertheless, estimated inflation in 2022 was high
relative to the previous decade's average of 0.5%.
The country's level of government debt is relatively moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP
ratio thought to have stood at 68.9% in 2022. This is below the 70.3% recorded in 2021.
Grenada came 146th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that the
country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 130th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.4% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.8% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of Grenada
to remain stable at 178th.
Grenada
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-15%
-20%
1%
-3%
-
4%
18%
36%
57%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.7
Rank
176
181
179
178
178
177
178
178
178
102
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Guatemala
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Guatemala had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $9,931 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 1.8% in 2020, the economy grew by 8.0% in
2021 and an estimated 3.4% in 2022, bringing output 9.7% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 6.4% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 3.8%.
The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to have
fallen to 30.1% in 2022 from 30.8% in 2021. The fiscal deficit is expected to have stood at 1.9% of GDP
in 2022. The combination of a relatively low debt burden and small deficit mean that the public
finances are in a strong position, which will support private sector confidence and investment, while
also providing the government with greater fiscal ammunition in the future.
Guatemala has legally committed to reduce carbon emissions by 11.2% compared to 2005 levels by
2030.
However, the business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In
2020, Guatemala ranked 96th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This represents a
steep fall from 84th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 3.5% between 2023 and 2027,
where it will remain, on average, Over the subsequent decade. Cebr forecasts that Guatemala will
see a slight worsening of its position in the World Economic League Table over the next fifteen years,
dropping from 69th place in 2022 to 70th place in 2037.
Guatemala
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-38%
-29%
-15%
-3%
-
3%
19%
41%
68%
Current price GDP, USD bn
35
50
72
86
93
99
127
166
217
Rank
81
79
70
69
69
69
68
67
70
103
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Guinea
Classified as a low-income country, Guinea had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,993
in 2022. The economy saw output growth in all three years from 2020 to 2022, amounting to 4.9%,
3.8%, and an estimated 4.6%, respectively.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 12.7% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 10.5%.
The public finances remain in good nick, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to an
estimated 39.0% in 2022, down from 42.5% in 2021. Public spending is under control, with an
expected fiscal deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2022. This - together with the low level of government debt -
provides space for expansionary fiscal policy to support growth and mitigate against various
headwinds in the coming years.
The performance of the private sector in Guinea is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively hostile to business. In 2020, the country ranked 156th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, representing an improvement on its 2016 ranking of 161st.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 5.2% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will remain at this level of growth on
average each year. Despite this growth trajectory, Guinea is expected to fall from 116th place in the
World Economic League Table in 2022 to 122nd in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of six
places.
Guinea
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-52%
-43%
-22%
-4%
-
5%
29%
66%
114%
Current price GDP, USD bn
6
7
10
16
21
24
25
35
50
Rank
139
147
141
125
116
113
125
124
122
104
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Guinea-Bissau
As of 2022, Guinea-Bissau is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,851 and is
classified as a low-income country. The economy was an outlier, growing by 1.5% in 2020 in spite of
the pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 5.0% in 2021. Nonetheless, the bleak economic
climate has weighed heavily on the economy in 2022, with growth estimated to slow to 3.8%.
Moderate output growth in 2022 was paired with stark increases in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 5.5% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be necessary to bring
non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022
exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.1%.
The economy has a high level of public sector debt. The public finances deteriorated further in 2022,
with debt as a share of GDP expected to have risen to 82.0%, up from 78.5% in 2021. The issue of
public sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that is estimated to have stood at 4.4% in 2022.
The pandemic period and the more recent cost-of-living crisis are expected to have increased deficit
spending in many economies worldwide.
Guinea-Bissau came 174th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings, suggesting that
the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector. This was unchanged on the
country’s ranking in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 4.9% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 5.0% per year. This growth trajectory will see Guinea-Bissau climb from 175th
place in the World Economic League Table in 2022 to 168th by 2037, a gain of seven places.
Guinea-Bissau
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-43%
-32%
-17%
-4%
-
4%
27%
62%
107%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.7
2.6
3.7
5.2
Rank
177
178
177
171
175
175
173
171
168
105
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Guyana
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Guyana had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $42,647 in 2022. The economy saw output growth in all three years from 2020 to 2022,
with growth amounting to 43.5%, 23.8%, and an estimated 57.8%, respectively. The recent rapid
economic expansion has been underpinned by oil production. The Guyanese economy is in the
process of transforming into a predominantly oil-producing economy, with oil production taking off in
2020 and expanding rapidly since. The further development of oil fields and the expansion of
production capacity is likely to see Guyana continue to be one of the fastest growing economies in
coming years. However, the economy is also becoming increasing vulnerable to the uncertainties of
oil price shocks.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 7.6%. Demand-
side policies may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. Estimated
inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 1.5%.
Government debt is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 22.8% of GDP in 2022,
compared to 42.9% in 2021. Public spending is under control, with an expected fiscal deficit of 0.7%
of GDP in 2022. This - together with the low level of government debt - provides space for
expansionary fiscal policy to support growth and mitigate against various headwinds in the coming
years.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 18.7% between 2023
and 2027, before further decelerating to an average of 3.3% between 2028 and 2037. Over the next
15 years, Cebr forecasts that Guyana will move swiftly up the World Economic League Table rankings,
from 135th position in 2022 to 117th in 2037.
Guyana
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-77%
-72%
-68%
-37%
-
25%
133%
174%
223%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2
4
5
8
15
18
32
42
54
Rank
158
157
155
149
135
128
113
115
117
106
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Haiti
Haiti is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,166 as of
2022. Following a contraction of 3.3% in 2020, the economy saw two further contractions,
amounting to 1.8% and an expected 1.2% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Accordingly, this left output
6.2% below 2019 levels.
Alongside falling GDP in 2022, the country saw a rampant rate of inflation, at an expected 26.8%.
Only 11 other countries in the world are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the past
year. Estimated inflation in 2022 was more than twice the previous decade's average of 10.9%.
The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to have
fallen to 23.1% in 2022 from 24.2% in 2021. Public spending is also under control, with an expected
fiscal deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2022. This - together with the low level of government debt - provides
space for expansionary fiscal policy to support growth and mitigate against various headwinds in the
coming years.
The performance of the private sector in Haiti is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 179th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 181st in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 1.3% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at a slightly faster rate of
1.5% on average each year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Haiti in the
World Economic League Table will deteriorate, with its ranking dropping sharply from 120th to 140th
by 2037. This would represent a 20-place fall in the rankings.
Haiti
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-13%
-6%
7%
1%
-
0%
7%
15%
24%
Current price GDP, USD bn
10
14
15
21
18
18
21
25
30
Rank
123
124
121
113
120
125
132
137
140
107
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Honduras
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Honduras had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $6,769 in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 9.0% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 12.5%, followed
by expected further growth of 3.4% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 5.9%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 8.6% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was double the
previous decade's average of 4.3%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 went hand in hand with the robustness of the
labour market. Indeed, over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by
4.0 percentage points to 4.6%.
Honduras came 133rd in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that
the country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. This represents a significant decline since 2016, when the country's ranking was 117th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.8% between 2023
and 2027, before picking up further to an average of 3.9% between 2028 and 2037. Despite this
growth trajectory, Honduras is expected to fall from 103rd place in the World Economic League Table
in 2022 to 105th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of two places.
Honduras
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-35%
-26%
-11%
-3%
-
4%
20%
46%
77%
Current price GDP, USD bn
12
19
23
28
31
34
40
54
72
Rank
115
112
108
104
103
100
104
105
105
108
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Hong Kong SAR
Hong Kong SAR is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $69,987 as of 2022.
The country saw its GDP shrink by 6.5% in 2020. Having returned to economic growth in 2021, at
6.3%, output is expected to have again shrunk in 2022, by 0.8%, leaving GDP 1.5% below 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023.
Although output fell back in 2022, inflation is estimated at a moderate 1.9%. This will spare the
economy from the signature pressure to contract policy seen in other countries. Estimated inflation in
2022 was below the previous decade's average of 2.7%.
Although growth has been poor in recent quarters, a silver lining is the tightness of the labour market.
The unemployment rate is anticipated to have declined by 0.7 percentage points to 4.5% in 2022,
which will support household incomes and thus levels of spending in the coming months.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have risen to 3.3% in 2022. This is up from 2.1% in
2021. The government is also predicted to have operated an historically high fiscal deficit of 3.8% in
2022, facilitated in part by the low debt to GDP ratio. This will have acted to bolster the economy in
the past months.
The regulatory environment in Hong Kong SAR is more competitive than most of its peers. The
country ranked in third place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, the
country's ranking was 4th. However, the increasing role of China in Hong Kong decision making is
encouraging emigration, especially of younger people. This will likely hold back growth in future
years and reduce Hong Kong’s competitiveness, in general.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will average 1.5%.
However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to moderate to
an average of 1.0% per year. This growth trajectory will see Hong Kong SAR fall from 42nd place in
the World Economic League Table in 2022 to 45th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of three
places.
Hong Kong SAR
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-23%
-13%
0%
1%
-
2%
8%
13%
19%
Current price GDP, USD bn
212
263
341
369
367
383
486
561
648
Rank
38
39
35
41
42
41
44
44
45
109
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Hungary
As of 2022, Hungary is classified as a high-income country, with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $42,132. After suffering a GDP contraction of 4.5% in 2020, a bounce-back was seen in 2021,
with a growth rate of 7.1%. Further growth of 5.7% is expected to have been seen in 2022, meaning
that output is now 8.1% above 2019 levels.
Although real GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, the Hungarian economy experienced a 1.3%
contraction when measured in US dollars. This is due to the forint’s depreciation against the dollar,
amounting to around 19% this year. In addition, inflation also ran hot at an estimated 13.9% across
2022. Only the Baltic countries and the Czech Republic have a higher inflation rate in the European
Union. Inflation has been stronger than the annual average in the latter months of the year, being in
excess of 20.0% across September, October, and November.
The Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the central bank, has been increasing its interest rate to counter
inflationary pressure, with the base rate increasing from 0.6% as of mid-2020 to 13.0% by late 2022,
the highest level this century. Furthermore, the government introduced a price cap on fuel in
November 2021, in an attempt to combat inflation. This was widened to six basic foodstuffs in January
2022, including sugar and chicken breast, then extended once more in November to encompass eggs
and potatoes. This intervention has led to scarcity in some of these products, and indirect increases in
other products’ prices.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.7 percentage points to 3.4%.
However, this estimate is an average throughout the year, with the unemployment rate increasing
towards the end of 2022. It is also expected that the rate will increase next year. Government debt as
a share of GDP fell to 74.8% in 2022, down from 76.8% the previous year.
Hungary has set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.5% between 2023 and
2027, and that pace will remain between 2028 and 2037. Cebr forecasts show the World Economic
League Table ranking of Hungary being unchanged over the next 15 years, at 58th.
Hungary
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-26%
-29%
-16%
-5%
-
2%
13%
28%
45%
Current price GDP, USD bn
140
128
143
182
168
166
252
314
391
Rank
49
59
57
56
58
58
56
56
58
110
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Iceland
Iceland is a high-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $66,467 as of
2022. After suffering from a coronavirus restriction related GDP contraction of 6.8% in 2020, growth,
at 4.4%, was seen in 2021. Further growth of 5.1% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving
output 2.2% above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 8.4%. The
estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 2.9%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary economic growth over the longer-
term horizon.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 68.2% in 2022, down from 74.6% the
previous year.
Whilst a legal commitment has not yet been set by Iceland, an ambition to achieve carbon neutrality
by 2040 has been mentioned in a government policy document.
The performance of the private sector in Iceland is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 26th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 19th in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.5%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 2.2% per year. This growth trajectory will see Iceland fall from 110th place in the World
Economic League Table in 2022 to 118th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of eight places.
Iceland
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-22%
-26%
-9%
-5%
-
3%
13%
26%
40%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
15
25
26
27
27
36
44
54
Rank
96
121
106
109
110
111
108
113
118
111
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
India
Home to the second-largest population in the world, India had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $8,293 in 2022, classifying it as a lower middle-income country. Though agriculture employs
a bulk of majority India’s labour market, most of the country’s economic activity is accounted for by
the nation’s services sector, as its economy has diversified and developed over the years.
The pandemic had a particularly devastating effect on the South Asian country – in absolute terms,
India has the third highest death toll globally. This, in turn, led a significant decline in economic
activity, with output contracting by 6.6% in fiscal year 2020/21. A sharp rebound in economic activity
followed, fuelled by an uptick in domestic demand, as the pandemic subsided, resulting in GDP
growing by 8.7% in fiscal year 2021/22, making it the fastest growing major economy in the world.
We still expect growth in fiscal year 2022/23 to remain robust, at 6.8%, in spite of decelerating
global demand and tightening monetary policy to curb inflationary pressures. This, in turn would
bring output 8.4% above 2019 levels. Output growth is expected to ease in fiscal year 2023/24,
however, with Cebr forecasting growth of 5.8%, as accelerating price levels bite into domestic
demand. Annual inflation in India has exceeded target in 2022, at 6.9%, thereby above the Reserve
Bank of India’s tolerance band upper margin of 6%.
Nonetheless, inflation in India has been lower than in most other large economies and India’s
inflation remains both closer to its target range, and to the previous decade's average of 5.8% than in
many other countries. Moreover, much of India’s current inflation rate reflects higher food prices, an
erratic item but one that also accounts for a larger share of the consumer basket than in any other
G20 country. The uptick in inflation has nevertheless been softened by India’s purchase of discounted
Russian energy.
The Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates to bring back inflation to its target range. Higher
borrowing costs will weigh on public debt, especially on top of expanded infrastructure spending and
targeted fiscal measures. Government debt currently stands at 83.4% of GDP, with a high fiscal
deficit amounting to 9.9% of GDP in 2022. Fiscal consolidation will eventually be necessary to ensure
that debt levels do not destabilise the economy.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth expected to average 6.4%, after which
growth is expected to average 6.5% in the subsequent nine years. This growth trajectory will see
India rise from fifth place on the World Economic League Table in 2022 to third in the global rankings
by 2037.
India
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-58%
-41%
-16%
-6%
-
6%
36%
86%
157%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,239
1,828
2,651
3,176
3,480
3,699
5,293
7,926
12,050
Rank
12
11
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
112
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Indonesia
Indonesia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $14,638 in 2022, classifying it as a
lower middle-income country. The country suffered from a GDP contraction of 2.1% in 2020 due to
the adverse effects of the pandemic, but a bounce-back, buoyed by stronger consumer demand, was
seen in 2021 at 3.7%.
Further growth of 5.3% is expected to have taken place in 2022, leaving output 7.0% above 2019
levels. High commodity prices and the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine have enabled Indonesia, a
key exporter of palm oil, thermal coal, and liquefied natural gas, to gain significant market share, as
countries look to wean off Russian energy imports. This has improved Indonesia’s exports, the value
of which across the first ten months of 2022 being approximately 31% higher than over the same
period in 2021. Economic activity has also been boosted via the removal of Covid-19 restrictions,
which have boosted consumer demand and increased tourism, the latter of which is an important
component of the Indonesian economy.
Inflation serves as a downside risk to Indonesia’s growth prospects. October saw consumer price
levels accelerate to 5.8%, above the Indonesian central bank’s target range of 2% to 4%.
Consequently, the central bank has raised its main rates by 175 basis points as of the end of
November, reaching 5.25%. The aim is that front-loading interest rate rises will help to lower inflation
expectations, but this will likely weigh on domestic demand and economic activity in the near term.
Nonetheless, elevated commodity prices and potential supply-side reforms are set to facilitate
economic growth. On the latter, Indonesia is currently in the final five-year medium-term
development plan, running from 2020 to 2025, which has emphasised improving human capital,
liberalising labour markets, and attracting foreign capital. The impact of such supply-side reforms will
only be realised in the future but will aid in boosting Indonesia’s growth prospects over the longer
term.
We expect the annual rate of GDP growth to ease to an average of 4.8% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 4.5% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Indonesia is forecast to move from 17th place to 11th place in the
World Economic League Table.
Indonesia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-51%
-34%
-15%
-5%
-
4%
26%
57%
96%
Current price GDP, USD bn
470
919
1,015
1,187
1,278
1,326
1,911
2,617
3,585
Rank
21
16
16
17
17
17
14
12
11
113
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Islamic Republic of Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $18,663 as of 2022
and ranks as a lower-middle-income country. In Iran, the Government plays a large role in the
economy, with many state-owned enterprises. The country has a rich source of both natural gas and
crude oil.
Iran’s recent economic history has been closely linked to US foreign policy. The most recent round of
US sanctions in 2018, imposed by President Trump, were followed by contractions in the Iranian
economy in 2018 and 2019, with GDP growth falling by 1.8% and 3.1%, respectively. US sanctions
severely reduce sales of Iran’s most lucrative export, oil, while discouraging other countries to trade
with Iran. Iran’s automotive industry, for example, previously shared partnerships with leading
European car manufacturers, such as Peugeot, but all ties with Europe were ended in the sector in
2018 due to US sanctions.
Iran has outperformed other nations in 2020 and 2021, with GDP growing by 3.3% and 4.7%,
respectively. This is partly due to higher oil prices, which has meant increased revenue from the
relatively small portion of oil Iran does manage to sell abroad. Iran’s economy appears to have been
more resilient to the Covid-19 pandemic, though year-on-year figures are derived from a low base. For
2022, GDP growth of 3.0% is expected to have taken place.
Inflation is estimated to have reached 40.0% in 2022. This sharp rise has been partly driven by
increases in food prices after the government lifted previous import subsidies for essential goods.
This, paired with a severe devaluation in Iran’s currency, the rial, which hit historic lows in 2022, has
compounded price problems for the domestic economy. Only seven other countries globally are
expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high
relative to the previous decade's average of 25.3%. Meanwhile, public finances have benefited from
rising oil prices and the cut to subsidies, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to 34.2%
in 2022, down from 42.4% in 2021.
Cebr forecasts annual growth to slow across 2023 to 2027, to average 1.9% across the period.
Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that Iran will fall in the World Economic League Table
rankings, from 11th position to 21st.
Any upside potential for Iran’s economy is dependent on US sanctions. Negotiations between the
Biden administration and Iran have been ongoing for a large portion of 2022 but there has been no
emergence of a new deal. A renewal in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a previous
deal achieved during the Obama administration, would bring a sizable uplift to Iran’s economic
Islamic Republic of Iran
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-22%
-17%
-6%
-3%
-
2%
10%
21%
34%
Current price GDP, USD bn
361
422
487
1,590
1,974
1,756
1,006
1,224
1,488
Rank
27
29
26
14
11
12
21
20
21
114
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
prospects, increasing general openness and allowing the sale of much larger quantities of oil.
Conversely, a combination of economic and social hardship has sparked nationwide protests in Iran
during the latter part of 2022. This is a key factor that could dent growth prospects in the period
ahead, especially if tensions escalate.
115
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Iraq
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Iraq had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$12,408 in 2022. After the economy shrank by 15.7% in 2020, growth of 7.7% was achieved in 2021.
This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 9.3%, leaving output 0.8% below 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 6.5% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 far exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.9%.
Iraq’s public finances are in a relatively healthy state measure by government debt as a share of GDP,
which is expected to have fallen to 36.7% in 2022 from 59.1% in 2021. Relatively low levels of
government debt have been facilitated by a disciplined approach to fiscal policy. Indeed, the
Government ran a fiscal surplus amounting to an expected 11.1% of GDP in 2022, whilst other
countries faced ballooning public finances as a result of the pandemic and rising inflation.
The regulatory environment in Iraq is less competitive than that of many of its peers. The country
ranked in 172nd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its ranking was
169th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and
2027, and growth is also expected to average 2.7% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022 and
2037, Iraq is forecast to move from 48th place to 49th place in the World Economic League Table, a
single-place fall in the rankings.
Iraq
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-26%
-9%
-8%
-
4%
14%
30%
48%
Current price GDP, USD bn
89
218
192
207
281
287
334
419
525
Rank
59
46
53
53
48
48
49
49
49
116
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Ireland
Ireland is a high-income country and had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $131,034 in
2022. Indeed, this value is amongst the world’s highest, only being outranked by Luxembourg and
Singapore amongst countries in the WELT rankings, though it is surpassed by several microstates.
Ireland’s economy has grown in each year since 2013, avoiding the pandemic-induced slump in 2020
experienced by many other European economies and instead witnessing growth of 6.2%. This was
followed by growth of 13.6% in 2021 and expected growth of 9.0% in 2022. This period has seen
Ireland climb from 45th in the World Economic League Table to 28th by 2022. Though this
performance is impressive, it should be noted that at least a portion of this success is attributable to
multinational companies registering their intangible assets in Ireland, taking advantage of favourable
tax policies.
Ireland’s economy has been buoyed by a tight labour market in 2022, with the share of the labour
force not in work falling by 1.5 percentage points to an expected 4.7%. Further, the country's level of
government debt moderated in 2022, as the public sector debt to GDP ratio reached 47.0%, down
from the 55.3% recorded in 2021.
As with many other economies, Ireland has grappled with inflation in 2022. Annual price growth is
projected to have averaged 8.4% across the year. The drivers have been similar to those across other
European economies, with particular impacts from household utility bills, transport, and food.
In response to inflation across the Eurozone, the European Central Bank has raised rates on
numerous occasions recently, following a period of ultra-loose monetary policy. Such tightening is
set to weigh on economic activity across the currency bloc, including in Ireland. Further factors
impacting Ireland’s growth outlook include weakening consumer spending power and a more
uncertain environment, particularly with regard to future trading with the UK and the Northern Ireland
protocol. Collectively, these circumstances are expected to contribute to a growth slowdown, with
Irish GDP expanding by 4.0% in 2023. This would nevertheless outweigh the performance of the
global economy as a whole and see Ireland climb further up the WELT rankings, reaching 26th place.
Ireland
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-53%
-56%
-34%
-8%
-
4%
17%
33%
50%
Current price GDP, USD bn
270
226
336
505
517
551
717
916
1,170
Rank
32
45
37
27
28
26
27
27
28
117
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Israel
Israel is a high-income economy, with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $52,173 in 2022.
Israel’s economy is amongst the largest in the Middle East.
As with many other economies, Israel witnessed a contraction in 2020 as a result of the pandemic,
amounting to a 1.9% fall. Output then picked up significantly in 2021, with growth of 8.6%. Further
growth of 6.1% is expected to have taken place in 2022, leaving output 13.1% above pre-pandemic
levels.
The strong output performance in 2022 has led to improvements in other economic indicators. For
instance, Israel’s unemployment rate has fallen by 1.0 percentage points over 2022, reaching 3.9%,
while the public sector debt to GDP ratio has fallen to 61.5%, having stood at 68.0% in 2021.
Relative to the rest of the world, inflation in Israel has been modest in 2022, amounting to an
expected 4.5%. This is firmly up on the previous decade’s average of 0.5% annual price growth,
however. Israel’s lower inflation in 2022 relative to other countries can be explained by the structure
of its energy market, with prices being determined by long-term contracts and therefore not subject
to wider volatility. Moreover, the shekel has appreciated in 2022, which has reduced inflationary
pressure from imports.
A growth slowdown is expected in 2023, however, with output expected to pick up by 3.0%. An
acceleration to 3.2% average growth is then expected in the years between 2024 and 2027, before a
further uptick to 3.5% from 2028 until 2037. Despite such growth, Israel is set to see a slight
worsening of its position in the World Economic League Table, dropping from 27th place in 2022 to
32nd place by 2037. This forecast is dependent on geopolitical developments, however, particularly
with regard to the status of Palestine and wider relations within the region.
Israel
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-33%
-18%
-6%
-
3%
17%
36%
57%
Current price GDP, USD bn
184
262
358
489
518
533
672
860
1,094
Rank
42
40
33
28
27
27
30
31
32
118
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Italy
Italy is a high-income economy in southern Europe with an estimated GDP per capita of $51,062 in
PPP adjusted terms in 2022. A GDP contraction of 9.0% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 6.6%
in 2021 and an expected 3.2% in 2022, meaning Italy’s economy recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
As with other countries in Europe, Italy has been exposed to an energy price shock following Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. Russian natural gas accounted for approximately 40% of Italy’s gas imports in
recent years, with Algeria being the next most important supplier. Over the course of 2022, Italy has
sought to reduce its dependence on Russian energy by increasing imports from African countries,
leveraging existing supplier relationships.
Inflation reached 11.8% in November, the highest rate since the 1980s. Price growth has
predominantly been driven by the energy and food categories. To shield its citizens from price spikes,
the Italian government has spent well over €50 billion in 2022, with a further €15 billion set aside for
support on energy bills in the 2023 budget.
Following the resignation of Mario Draghi, a snap election was held on 25th September. The leader
of the far-right Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, won the largest share of the vote and formed a
coalition government with the League and Forza Italia. The appointment of experienced personnel in
key cabinet positions, such as in the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, points to a degree of continuity from the previous government. Meloni has indicated she will
work with the European Commission in order to unlock all tranches of Italy’s post-pandemic recovery
fund.
Italy remains one of the most heavily indebted countries in the Eurozone with government debt
standing at 147% of GDP in 2022, though this is down from the 155% recorded in 2020.
Looking ahead, the Italian economy is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 as elevated energy
prices curb economic activity both in the country and the wider Eurozone. Tighter monetary policy will
also weigh on Italy’s growth outlook, as the European Central Bank aims to reduce inflation in the
currency bloc. The economy is expected to return to growth in 2024, expanding at a rate of 1.3% in
line with Italy’s long-term growth trend.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Italy, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Between 2022 and 2037, Italy is forecast to slide from tenth place to 12th place in the World
Economic League Table.
Italy
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
4%
-3%
-2%
-3%
-
0%
5%
12%
19%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2,213
2,088
1,961
2,101
1,985
1,996
2,336
2,749
3,235
Rank
7
9
9
8
10
10
11
11
12
119
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Jamaica
Jamaica is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $11,962
as of 2022. A contraction in GDP of 10.0% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 4.6% and an
expected 2.8% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This would leave 2022 output 3.3% below 2019 levels.
The economy is instead expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2024.
While the economy is expected to have grown moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a
disproportionately faster rate over the same period, at an anticipated 9.0%. This poses the risk of a
stagflation, with low growth and price rises occurring simultaneously. The estimated growth in
consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 5.4%.
The public finances are in a weak position, with an estimated government debt to GDP ratio of 86.2%
in 2022. However, this is down on the 92.3% ratio recorded the previous year. Despite the upward
shock to public finances seen in many countries worldwide, the country has made efforts to address
the issue of public sector debt, achieving an estimated fiscal surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2022.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.1%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 1.6% per year. This modest growth path would see Jamaica fall behind many of its
peers in the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will fall from 127th place
in 2022 to 139th place by 2037, a dramatic 12-place decline in the rankings.
Jamaica
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
2%
-3%
1%
-3%
-
3%
11%
20%
30%
Current price GDP, USD bn
13
15
15
15
17
19
21
25
30
Rank
113
120
123
127
127
123
131
136
139
120
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Japan
Japan is a high-income economy in East Asia, with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$48,810 in 2022.
The island nation ranks as the world’s third largest economy, being surpassed only by the United
States and China. Japan is famous for its rapid industrialisation and economic growth in the second
half of the 20th century. However, the economic boom ended abruptly in the early 1990s, with the
burst of an asset price bubble in 1992. Following the collapse of real estate prices and the stock
market, the Japanese economy entered a lengthy period of weak consumption, high indebtedness,
low investment, and deflation. The following years came to be known as the ‘Lost Decades’ with the
compound annual GDP growth rate between 1997 and 2019 amounting to just 0.7%.
Deflation reappeared during the pandemic with consumer prices falling by 0.2% over the course of
2021. The ongoing struggles of the Bank of Japan to counter deflationary tendencies in the economy
partly explain the more accommodative policy stance compared to its peers. Inflation in Japan has
risen from 0.5% in January 2022 to 3.7% by October of the same year, albeit remaining well below
the levels seen in Europe or the US. The Bank of Japan has kept the interest rate at -0.1% during this
period, causing the yen to depreciate by up to 30% compared to the dollar.
The weak currency will be welcomed by tourists to Japan after the country reopened its borders to
visitors in the fall of 2022. However, whether firms can seize the opportunity and increase their
exports is yet to be seen.
Following a contraction of 0.4% in 2019 and the pandemic slump of 4.6% in 2020, growth has been
moderate at 1.7% in 2021 and an expected 1.4% in 2022. Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow
further as pandemic support is phased out and real wages fall, while external demand is set to
weaken due to the global economic slowdown. The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to
an average of 1.0% between 2023 and 2027. Other factors influencing growth prospects are low
labour productivity, an ageing population, and declining levels of innovation. Over the subsequent
decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by just 0.8% on average each year.
Germany is expected to overtake Japan for a single year in 2023 as the world’s third-largest
economy, before Japan retakes the spot in 2024, keeping the position until the early 2030s.
Japan has set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Japan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-3%
-5%
1%
-1%
-
1%
5%
9%
14%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4,580
6,272
4,931
4,933
4,167
3,952
6,690
7,652
8,754
Rank
2
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
121
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Jordan
Jordan is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $11,975 in
2022. Following a pandemic related GDP contraction of 1.6% in 2020, the economy grew by 2.2% in
2021 and an estimated 2.4% in 2022, bringing output 3.0% above 2019 levels.
As with output, consumer prices are expected to have grown only moderately in 2022, at an
anticipated 3.8%. Inflation has therefore posed less of an economic headache in comparison to many
other economies worldwide. However, estimated inflation in 2022 was still high relative to the
previous decade's average of 2.1%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen slightly to 91.0% in 2022, down from
91.9% in 2021, a relatively impressive feat in a time of ballooning public expenditure in many
countries. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 5.9% of GDP. Government spending likely
played an important role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022. However, the combination of
high government debt and a large deficit paint a worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in
the coming years.
The performance of the private sector in Jordan has been improved by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 75th in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 114th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.1% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 3.3% per year. This growth trajectory will see Jordan fall from 89th place in the
World Economic League Table in 2022 to 91st in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of two places.
Jordan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-32%
-18%
-7%
-2%
-
3%
17%
37%
61%
Current price GDP, USD bn
18
32
41
45
48
51
68
87
113
Rank
103
95
92
91
89
88
91
92
91
122
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$30,827 as of 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 2.6% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.1% in 2021
and an estimated 2.5% in 2022, bringing output to an estimated 3.9% above 2019 levels.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 14.0% on average
across the year. The economy therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth
and price rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's
average of 7.2%.
Government debt in Kazakhstan is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 23.3% of
GDP in 2022, compared to 25.1% in 2021. Along with the rest of the world, the country has faced
significant economic challenges. However, the government has been restrained with its fiscal policy.
In 2022, public sector borrowing stood at an estimated 2.0% of GDP.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, Kazakhstan has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2060.
Kazakhstan came 25th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the
country's regulatory environment made significant strides forward relative to other comparable
countries. In 2016, the country's ranking was 49th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 3.6%. However,
between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 2.7%
per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of
Kazakhstan to remain stable at 53rd place.
Kazakhstan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-40%
-24%
-12%
-2%
-
4%
19%
36%
56%
Current price GDP, USD bn
105
208
167
197
223
245
284
357
449
Rank
54
50
55
55
53
52
53
53
53
123
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kenya
As of 2022, Kenya is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,122 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 0.2% in
2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 7.5%,
followed by expected further growth of 5.3% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
13.0% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Although GDP is estimated to have risen relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also fairly high, at
an expected 7.4%. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 also exceeded the previous
decade's average of 6.4%. Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth
over the longer-term.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio expected to
have stood at 69.4% in 2022. This is above the 67.8% recorded in 2021.
The business environment has improved significantly in recent years. In 2020, Kenya ranked 56th in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of 105th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 5.3% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 4.2% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Kenya will see a modest improvement in its ranking
in the World Economic League Table, rising from 65th place in 2022 to 60th place in 2037.
Kenya
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-48%
-36%
-20%
-5%
-
5%
30%
62%
96%
Current price GDP, USD bn
37
56
82
111
114
122
186
254
339
Rank
80
76
66
62
65
64
62
60
60
124
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kiribati
As of 2022, Kiribati is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,165. Following a GDP
contraction of 0.5% in 2020, the economy grew by 1.5% in 2021 and an estimated 1.0% in 2022,
bringing output 2.0% above 2019 levels.
Despite sluggish output performance in 2022, inflation rose to an anticipated 5.6%. This is
particularly high relative to the previous decade's annual average of 0.5%, raising the potential for a
stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to an estimated 25.2% in 2022, which remains at a low
level. Looking back, public sector debt stood at 17.6% of GDP in 2021. A relatively low debt burden
provided the Government with the fiscal headroom to operate an expected budget deficit of 17.0% in
2022. This deficit spending has, however, likely been important in bolstering demand in the
economy.
The performance of the private sector in Kiribati is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 164th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 160th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 2.3% between
2023 and 2027, before slowing to an average of 2.0% per year between 2028 and 2037. Between
2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of Kiribati to remain stable
at 189th.
Kiribati
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-17%
-6%
-1%
-
2%
12%
24%
37%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
Rank
190
190
191
189
189
189
189
189
189
125
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Korea
Korea is a high-income economy in East Asia, seeing an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$53,574 in 2022. Korea is one of the four Asian Tiger economies, alongside Singapore, Taiwan, and
Hong Kong, characterised by rapid economic development in the latter half of the twentieth century.
During this period, Korea has risen from being one of the world’s poorest economies to being
amongst the largest.
Korea’s economy is expected to have grown by 2.6% in 2022. This is slower than many similarly sized
economies, meaning Korea’s WELT ranking has fallen in 2022. Having stood in the top ten largest
economies in 2021, Korea now stands in 13th place.
The headwinds affecting the Korean economy in 2022 have been similar to those in other developed
economies, notably rising living costs for consumers, higher interest rates, and increased input costs
for businesses. On the latter point, the depreciation of the won has contributed to rising costs,
particularly for businesses reliant on inputs from abroad.
Korea is one of the world’s major exporters, with foreign demand having fuelled much of the
country’s growth in recent decades. A slowdown in the economies of major trading partners, and
subsequently lower demand for Korean exports, represents a downside risk to Korea’s growth
prospects.
Annual growth in Korea is expected to slow to an average of 2.4% between 2023 and 2027. Over the
remainder of our forecast horizon, a further slowdown to 2.3% is projected. Nevertheless, Korea is
set to re-enter the top ten largest economies from 2026, where it will remain for the rest of the
forecast horizon.
Korea
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-35%
-23%
-10%
-3%
-
2%
13%
27%
42%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,172
1,278
1,623
1,811
1,698
1,691
2,496
3,080
3,801
Rank
13
14
11
10
13
13
9
9
9
126
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kosovo
Kosovo is an upper-middle-income country, which has seen robust economic growth over the past
decade. It has an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $14,352 as of 2022. The COVID-19
pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 5.3% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a
bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 9.5%, followed by expected further growth of 2.7% in
2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 6.5% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite a relatively modest expected output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated
12.0%. The economy therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price
rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of just 1.3%.
Kosovo’s public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to
have fallen slightly to 21.1% in 2022 from 22.4% in 2021. Along with the rest of the world, the country
has faced significant economic challenges. However, the Government has been restrained with its
fiscal policy. In 2022, public sector borrowing stood at an estimated 1.0% of GDP.
The performance of the private sector in Kosovo has been improved by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 57th in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 78th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 3.7%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 3.5%
per year. In the coming 15 years, Kosovo is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic
League Table, from 148th position in 2022 to 149th place in 2037.
Kosovo
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-32%
-13%
-3%
-
3%
20%
42%
69%
Current price GDP, USD bn
5
6
7
9
9
10
13
17
22
Rank
143
150
148
145
148
148
148
149
149
127
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kuwait
Kuwait is a high-income country that had an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $51,528 as of
2022. After suffering a 8.9% GDP contraction in 2020, growth, at 1.3%, was seen in 2021. Further
growth of 8.7% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 0.3% above 2019 levels.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.3% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in price
pressures seen in many economies worldwide. Estimated inflation in 2022 was, though, high relative
to the previous decade's average of 2.5%.
The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to have
fallen to 7.1% in 2022, from 8.7% in 2021. Relatively low levels of government debt have been
facilitated by a disciplined approach to fiscal policy. Indeed, the government ran a fiscal surplus
amounting to an expected 14.1% of GDP in 2022, whilst other countries faced ballooning public
finances as a result of the pandemic and rising inflation.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth in Kuwait is set to slow to an average of
2.6%. Subsequently, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth
will accelerate slightly to 2.7% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Kuwait is accordingly forecast to
move from 57th to 63rd place in the World Economic League Table, a six-place fall in the rankings.
Kuwait
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-10%
-2%
-2%
-8%
-
3%
14%
30%
48%
Current price GDP, USD bn
115
174
121
136
182
180
197
246
309
Rank
53
56
59
60
57
57
59
62
63
128
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Kyrgyz Republic
As of 2022, the Kyrgyz Republic is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,771 and is
classified as a lower-middle-income country. After the economy shrank by 8.6% in 2020, growth of
3.7% was achieved in 2021. This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 3.8%, leaving
output 1.6% below 2019 levels. A catch-up to pre-pandemic levels of GDP is instead expected in 2023.
Despite moderate output growth, inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic is expected to have come in at a
high 13.5% in 2022. This far exceeded the previous decade's average of 4.8%. Looking ahead,
policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a more desirable
balance between inflation and growth.
Government debt is, however, expected to have fallen as a share of GDP in 2022, down from 61.1% in
2021 to an estimated 60.4%.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.7%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to accelerate to an average of 4.0% per year. In the coming 15 years, the Kyrgyz Republic is expected
to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table, from 145th position in 2022 to 147th place
in 2037.
Kyrgyz Republic
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-39%
-28%
-6%
-4%
-
3%
20%
46%
77%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
7
8
9
10
11
13
18
24
Rank
150
149
146
147
145
145
147
148
147
129
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Lao P.D.R.
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Lao P.D.R. had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $9,166 in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by a moderate
0.4% in 2020. The economy then experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.1%,
followed by expected further growth of 2.2% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood a
relatively impressive 3.9% above 2019 levels in 2022.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 15.0%. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 also vastly exceeded the previous decade's average of 3.3%. This poses the risk of a
stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises.
The economy has a high level of public sector debt. The public finances deteriorated further in 2022,
with debt as a share of GDP expected to have risen to 107.1%, up from 93.5% in 2021. A high fiscal
deficit of 5.1% of GDP is also expected to have been seen in 2022. Fiscal consolidation will eventually
be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not destabilise the economy.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has been referred
to in a government policy document. Meanwhile, the regulatory environment in Lao P.D.R. is less
competitive than that of many of its peers. The country ranked in 154th place in the World Bank's
2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its ranking was 149th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.8% between 2023
and 2027, before picking up further to an average of 4.3% between 2028 and 2037. Over the next 15
years, Cebr forecasts that Lao P.D.R. will move swiftly up the World Economic League Table rankings,
from 133rd position in 2022 to 116th in 2037.
Lao P.D.R.
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-58%
-39%
-13%
-2%
-
3%
21%
49%
84%
Current price GDP, USD bn
5
10
17
19
15
14
30
40
55
Rank
144
139
116
119
133
138
117
118
116
130
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Latvia
As of 2022, Latvia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $38,124. It is classed as a
high-income country, though its GDP per capita falls short of the two other Baltic states, Estonia and
Lithuania.
As with many other European economies, Latvia witnessed an economic contraction in 2020,
triggered by the pandemic. A slump of 3.8% in that year was followed by growth of 4.5% in 2021.
Further growth of 2.5% is expected to have taken place in 2022, taking output 3.1% above pre-
pandemic levels.
Latvia’s expected growth in 2022 was slower than in 2021. This was in part due to base effects, with
2021’s expansion being supported by the low levels of output seen in the year prior. 2022’s growth
has also been impacted by a variety of headwinds, however, notably the fallout from Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. Latvia borders Russia and is also dependent on its trade, in terms of both imports
and exports. Sanctions imposed by the West on Russia and ensuing shortages have exposed Latvia
to significant cost-push inflation. This has fed through to consumer prices, with price growth over
2022 expected to have reached 16.5%.
Heightened inflation has reduced spending power in Latvia, while also contributing to a more
uncertain business environment. Consequently, growth is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2023, before
accelerating to an average of 3.4% in each year to 2027. Growth is expected to remain at this steady
state level for the remainder of the forecast horizon. Latvia placed 98th in the WELT rankings in 2022.
By the end of the forecast horizon, it is expected to still be in this position, having ranked between
97th and 100th in the intermittent years.
Latvia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-8%
-20%
-9%
-2%
-
2%
16%
37%
62%
Current price GDP, USD bn
31
28
30
39
40
43
56
74
98
Rank
84
100
100
95
98
97
99
98
98
131
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Lesotho
Lesotho is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,028
as of 2022. After the economy shrank by 6.0% in 2020, growth of 2.0% was achieved in 2021. This
was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 2.1%, although this left output 2.0% below 2019
levels. Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2024.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 8.1%. Estimated inflation in 2022 was, though, only
slightly higher than the previous decade's average of 5.2%, whereas many other countries saw
sharper departures from trend inflation rates during the year. Moreover, government debt as a share
of GDP fell to an estimated 50.7% in 2022, down from 53.5% the previous year.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.4% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 0.1% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022 and
2037, Lesotho is forecast to move from 165th place to 173rd place in the World Economic League
Table, an eight-place fall in the rankings.
Lesotho
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-4%
2%
-2%
-
2%
7%
7%
8%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.8
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
3.0
3.4
3.7
Rank
162
164
165
164
165
167
168
172
173
132
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Liberia
As of 2022, Liberia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,667 and is classified as a
low-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 3.0% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.0%, followed
by expected further growth of 3.7% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood an
impressive 5.7% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy saw inflation at 6.9%, a rate below
the previous decade's average of 12.9%. However, government debt as a share of GDP is expected to
have risen in 2022, up from 53.2% in the previous year to stand at an estimated 55.1%.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Liberia, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
The performance of the private sector in Liberia is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 175th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 176th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 5.3% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an even faster rate of
6.0% on average each year. In the coming 15 years, Liberia is accordingly expected to move up in the
World Economic League Table, from 158th position in 2022 to 157th place in 2037.
Liberia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-37%
-13%
-4%
-4%
-
4%
30%
73%
132%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.3
2.7
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.2
5.3
7.5
10.9
Rank
167
161
161
158
158
157
159
159
157
133
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Libya
As of 2022, Libya is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $18,945 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. The country saw its GDP shrink by a mammoth 29.5% in 2020, in
light of large-scale violence and oil blockades. Having returned to economic growth in 2021, at
28.3%, output is expected to have again shrunk in 2022, by 18.5%. Accordingly, GDP is expected to
have sat a sizeable 26.3% below 2019 levels. Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels
is only expected in 2025.
As the size of the economy shrank in 2022, consumer price inflation is expected to have stood at a
rate of 5.5%, below the previous decade's average of 8.8%.
The performance of the private sector in Libya is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 186th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 187th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 8.3% between
2023 and 2027, before roughly halving to an average of 4.1% per year between 2028 and 2037. This
nonetheless impressive growth path would see Libya overtake many of its peers in the World
Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve from 97th place in 2022 to 88th
place by 2037, a nine-place improvement in the rankings.
Libya
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
86%
73%
42%
23%
-
18%
48%
81%
121%
Current price GDP, USD bn
68
93
67
39
41
45
66
89
119
Rank
63
64
71
94
97
95
92
91
88
134
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Lithuania
Lithuania is a high-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $46,159 as of
2022. It is a member of the European Union and the Eurozone. Though falling behind many other
economies in Europe, Lithuania’s GDP per capita is the highest of the former Soviet states.
Lithuania saw only a mild economic contraction in 2020, amounting to a drop of just 0.1%, meaning it
fared better than many other European states in the face of the pandemic. This was followed by
strong growth of 5.0% in 2021. Prior to this, growth had averaged 3.6% in the period from 2010 to
2019, driven by considerable investment and new emerging sectors, such as FinTech.
Growth is expected to have slowed significantly in 2022, however, at a projected rate of 1.8%. This
slowdown has been driven by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania shares a border
with Russia and is also dependent on the country for much of its trade. Russia is the largest market
for Lithuanian imports, with Russia’s economic slowdown resulting in a weaker demand base for
Lithuania. Changing trade relations, including the West’s imposition of sanctions against Russia, will
have also had an impact. On the import side, Russia is again one of Lithuania’s main trading partners.
This reliance on Russia’s goods and services has fuelled inflation in Lithuania, reaching an expected
rate of 17.6% across 2022.
These trends are expected to continue into 2023, putting further downward pressure on Lithuania’s
growth prospects. We expect the Lithuanian economy to grow by just 1.1% in 2023, before an
acceleration to an average rate of 2.5% in the years between 2024 and 2027. An average growth rate
of 2.3% is then expected for the remainder of the forecast horizon. Over this period, Lithuania will see
modest improvement in its WELT ranking, climbing from 82nd place in 2022 to 80th place by 2037.
Lithuania
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-25%
-26%
-14%
-2%
-
1%
12%
25%
41%
Current price GDP, USD bn
40
43
48
66
68
73
95
121
153
Rank
78
88
88
79
82
81
81
81
80
135
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Luxembourg
Luxembourg is a small European country located between France, Germany, and Belgium. It is a euro
area member and is known for its strong economy and high standard of living, with a PPP adjusted
GDP per capita of $141,587 estimated for 2022, making it the highest ranked country in the world on
this measure. It ranked in 71st place on the 2022 World Economic League Table, down by three
places on the year but up by one place since 2017.
The country is small, with an estimated population of 643,000 in 2022 and total land area of 2,586
square kilometres. Factors including its location and attractive remuneration mean that at least
200,000 people living in neighbouring countries, notably France and Germany, are estimated to
commute into the country for work. Luxembourg’s own population is estimated to have grown by an
average of 1.7% per annum between 2017 and 2022. It also ranked highest in the world in terms of
trade openness in 2019, with exports and imports amounting to 382% of GDP.
Luxembourg has a highly developed economy with a particular focus on finance and industrial
production, albeit with the latter diminishing in importance over recent decades. The financial sector
accounts for around a quarter of GDP, a development fostered in recent decades by government
policy promoting cross-border fund administration and a reputation for banking secrecy. It is also
perceived as a favourable tax location. The finance sector consists of both domestic banks and
international banks that have their headquarters in the capital, Luxembourg City.
The size of the finance industry and its high-value yet digitalised and flexible nature helped to cushion
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with it estimated that over two thirds worked from home in
2020. The economy shrank by an internationally moderate 1.8% contraction during the first pandemic
year, which was followed by strong growth, at 6.9%, in 2021. Further growth of 1.6% is expected to
have been seen in 2022, leaving output 6.7% above 2019 levels. The position of finance as
Luxembourg’s largest sector poses some economic risks, however, amid the existing and upcoming
tightening of international banking and tax rules.
As has been the case across many European economies, Luxembourg faced rising inflation in 2022 as
a result of soaring global energy prices. Yet, with an apparent peak of 7.4% annual consumer price
inflation reached in June 2022, the country has avoided the double-digit figures witnessed in other
European economies. Inflation is expected to have averaged 6.5% across 2022, up from 2.5% in the
previous year, and is expected to fall back in 2023 as tighter monetary policy set by the European
Central Bank percolates through the currency union’s economy.
Despite rising inflation, unemployment in Luxembourg fell in 2022, with the headline rate falling by
0.7 percentage points to 5.0%, below the euro area average. Government debt as a share of GDP
Luxembourg
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-25%
-23%
-11%
-2%
-
1%
11%
20%
31%
Current price GDP, USD bn
52
60
66
87
82
84
105
126
153
Rank
67
72
72
68
71
72
74
79
81
136
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
rose to 25.4% in 2022, from 24.3%, but remains at a very low level by international comparison. With
a low fiscal deficit, estimated at 1.1% of GDP in 2022, this provides the Government with fiscal
headroom to invest in the economy’s long-run capacity. Green growth will be a particular priority
area, with the country having set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 2.0%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 1.7%
per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Luxembourg will fall back in the World Economic
League Table rankings, from 71st position in 2022 to 81st in 2037.
137
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Macao SAR
Classified as a high-income country, Macao SAR had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$57,929 in 2022. The country’s economy is highly dependent on gambling and tourism from
mainland China.
Pandemic-associated spillovers saw GDP contract by 54.0% in 2020. This was followed by a rebound
amounting to 18.0% in 2021. Following this, the economy is expected to have declined again, by
22.4% in 2022. Cumulatively, output is now 57.9% below 2019 levels, and a catch-up to pre-
pandemic levels is not expected until the mid-2020s.
Inflation has remained at moderate levels, with the rise in consumer price levels estimated to have
been 2.5% in 2022. This was below the previous decade's average of 3.2%.
The unemployment rate is anticipated to have flatlined at 3.0% in 2022. A relatively low debt burden
provided the government with the fiscal headroom to operate an estimated budget deficit of 34.2%
in 2022. This deficit spending has, however, likely been important in bolstering demand in the
economy.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 16.1%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to ease considerably to an average of 3.3% per year. This growth path would see Macao SAR
overtake many of its peers in the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will
improve from 114th place in 2022 to 95th place by 2037, a dramatic 19-place improvement in the
rankings, though still below its pre-pandemic levels.
Macao SAR
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
41%
146%
129%
29%
-
30%
106%
143%
185%
Current price GDP, USD bn
18
43
50
30
23
31
61
78
101
Rank
100
87
85
102
114
105
93
95
95
138
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
North Macedonia
North Macedonia is an upper-middle-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $19,783 as of 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 6.1% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 4.0%, followed
by expected further growth of 2.7% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 0.2%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices are expected to have grown at a
concerningly high 10.6%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price
rises.
One factor contributing to the meagre economic growth of the past year has been a high rate of
unemployment. However, the labour market is moving in the right direction, with the unemployment
rate expected to have fallen by 0.5 percentage points to 15.2% in 2022. Government debt as a share
of GDP is expected to have reached 53.8% in 2022, largely unchanged from 53.2% the previous year.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, North Macedonia has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2060.
The performance of the economy is supported by a business environment that fosters private sector
activity. In 2020, North Macedonia ranked 17th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 23rd in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 3.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand 3.8% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that North Macedonia will see a modest improvement in
its ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 138th place in 2022 to 136th place in
2037.
North Macedonia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-19%
-7%
-3%
-
3%
20%
44%
74%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
10
11
14
14
15
19
25
34
Rank
131
140
138
134
138
135
138
138
136
139
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Madagascar
As of 2022, Madagascar is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,790 and is classified
as a low-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 7.1% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.3% in
2021 and an estimated 4.2% in 2022, bringing output 0.9% above 2019 levels.
Despite moderate output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 9.8% in 2022, which
is high relative to the previous decade's average of 6.4%. Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to
use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a more desirable balance between inflation
and growth.
While government debt as a share of GDP remains at a moderate level compared to some
economies in the region, it is expected to have reached 53.8% in 2022, up from 53.1% in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Madagascar is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 161
st
out of 190 in the
World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 171st in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 5.1%, before remaining roughly unchanged, at 5.0%, over the remainder of the forecast
horizon. Between 2022 and 2037, Madagascar is therefore forecast to move from 132nd place to
127th place in the World Economic League Table, a five-place improvement in the rankings.
Madagascar
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-28%
-22%
-8%
-4%
-
5%
28%
64%
109%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
12
13
14
15
16
23
32
45
Rank
130
133
129
130
132
132
128
127
127
140
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Malawi
As of 2022, Malawi is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,588 and is classified as a
low-income country. The country defied international trends by growing 0.9% in 2020. This was
followed by a further expansion of 2.2% in 2021. 2022, however, is expected to have seen a
slowdown in growth, with a rate of just 0.9% expected.
While the economy saw slow growth in 2022, consumer prices grew rather swiftly over the same
period, by an anticipated 18.4%. This has raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price
rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was slightly higher than the previous decade's average of 16.5%. On
the public finances side, government debt as a share of GDP climbed to 73.3% in 2022, up from
63.9% the previous year.
Over the four years to 2020, Malawi became more competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country reaching 109th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 144th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.7% between 2023
and 2027, before picking up further to an average of 4.5% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022
and 2037, Malawi is forecast to move from 143rd place to 137th place in the World Economic League
Table, a six-place improvement in the rankings.
Malawi
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-46%
-28%
-13%
-1%
-
3%
20%
50%
87%
Current price GDP, USD bn
6
8
9
12
12
12
17
24
33
Rank
140
144
145
139
143
144
142
139
137
141
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Malaysia
As of 2022, Malaysia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $33,113 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 5.5% in
2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 3.1%,
followed by expected further growth of 5.4% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
2.6% above 2019 levels in 2022.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 3.2% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the
previous decade's average of 1.8%.
The economy has been buoyed by a tight labour market, with the share of the labour force not in
work expected to have fallen by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% in 2022. The high number of people in
employment is a key strength for the economy, ensuring that consumer spending can be supported
in the short to medium term. A moderate level of government debt is anticipated, with the public
sector debt to GDP ratio estimated to have stood at 69.6% in 2022, slightly above the 69.0%
recorded in 2021.
The performance of the private sector in Malaysia is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 12th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 21st in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an annual rate of 3.5%,
on average. In the coming 15 years, Malaysia is expected to gradually move up in the World
Economic League Table, from 41st position in 2022 to 35th place in 2037. Possibly more importantly
in terms of local bragging rights, Malaysia, which is currently six places behind Singapore in the
League Table, is forecast to move to four places above Singapore by the end of the forecast period.
Malaysia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-31%
-11%
-5%
-
4%
20%
42%
69%
Current price GDP, USD bn
203
319
319
373
382
390
567
741
967
Rank
40
35
40
40
41
39
38
36
35
142
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Maldives
Maldives is an upper-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $30,888 as of
2022. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 33.5% in 2020, the economy saw 37.0% growth in
2021 and an expected 8.7% in 2022. This v-shaped pandemic performance stemmed from tourism
representing the country’s largest contributor to GDP, in light of the implementation and easing of
travel restrictions. Indeed, output in 2022 is thought to have stood 1.0% below 2019 levels, with a
catch-up expected in 2023.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.3% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Estimated inflation in 2022 was, however, high relative
to the previous decade's average of 2.3%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have reached 126.4% in 2022. This is above the
already high 124.8% registered the previous year. Meanwhile, government borrowing as a share of
GDP is thought to have stood at 16.4% in 2022. These figures mean that public sector debt will
continue to pose a challenge for the economy in the coming years, as the government faces the
balancing act of supporting households and businesses while containing the debt burden.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Maldives, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2030 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
The performance of the private sector in Maldives has been inhibited by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In 2020, the
country ranked 147th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 135th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 5.9% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 5.6% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, Maldives is expected to slightly move up in the World Economic League Table, from 152nd
position in 2022 to 150th place in 2037.
Maldives
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-47%
-35%
-13%
-8%
-
6%
33%
74%
128%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2
3
5
5
6
6
9
13
19
Rank
161
160
156
152
152
151
151
150
150
143
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mali
Classified as a low-income country, Mali had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,609 in
2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 1.2% in 2020. Nonetheless, the
economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 3.1%, followed by expected
further growth of 2.5% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 4.4% above 2019 levels
in 2022.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 8.0%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was significantly higher than the previous
decade's average of 1.1%.
Government debt as a share of GDP climbed to an estimated 55.9% in 2022, up from 51.9% the
previous year.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 5.1% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.0% on average each
year. In the coming 15 years, Mali is expected to gradually move up in the World Economic League
Table, from 121st position in 2022 to 114th place in 2037.
Mali
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-43%
-33%
-13%
-2%
-
5%
28%
64%
109%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
12
15
19
18
19
29
41
58
Rank
133
127
120
116
121
119
119
117
114
144
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Malta
As of 2022, Malta is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $56,338 and is classified as a
high-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 8.3% in 2020, the economy grew by 10.3% in
2021 and an expected 6.2% in 2022, bringing output 7.4% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 5.9% inflation expected in 2022. This is high in comparison to the previous
decade's average of 1.3%.
An important component of the economy's strong output performance in 2022 was the tightness of
the labour market. Indeed, the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to an estimated
3.2% in 2022, providing a boost to consumer spending. Meanwhile, government debt as a share of
GDP climbed to an expected 57.0% in 2022, up from 56.4% the previous year.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Malta, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.5% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 3.4% on average each
year. This growth trajectory will see Malta fall from 128th place in the World Economic League Table
in 2022 to 132nd in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of four places.
Malta
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-49%
-42%
-17%
-6%
-
3%
19%
41%
67%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
9
13
17
17
18
23
29
38
Rank
135
141
126
124
128
129
129
130
132
145
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Marshall Islands
The Marshall Islands is an upper-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$4,395 as of 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 1.6% in 2020, growth, at 1.7%, was seen
in 2021. Further growth of 1.5% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 1.5% above
2019 levels.
Despite a positive output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot at an anticipated 6.4%. This has
raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was
much higher than the previous decade's average of 0.6%.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to an estimated 20.8% in 2022. This is up from 19.8% in
2021. The fiscal deficit is expected to have stood at 2.0% of GDP in 2022. The combination of a
relatively low debt burden and small deficit mean that the public finances are in a strong position,
which will support private sector confidence and investment, while also providing the government
with greater fiscal ammunition in the future.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in the Marshall Islands, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by
2050 has been referred to in a government policy document.
The performance of the private sector in the Marshall Islands has been inhibited by a regulatory and
institutional environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In
2020, the country ranked 153rd in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 139th
in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 2.0%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to decline to an average of 1.5% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, the Marshall Islands is forecast to
move from 187th place to 188th place in the World Economic League Table, a single-place fall in the
rankings.
Marshall Islands
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-18%
-18%
-10%
-1%
-
3%
10%
19%
28%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
Rank
188
191
190
187
187
187
188
188
188
146
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mauritania
As of 2022, Mauritania is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,925 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 0.9% in 2020, growth,
at 2.4%, was seen in 2021. Further growth of 4.0% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving
output 5.5% above 2019 levels.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 7.1% in 2022.
Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to achieve a
more desirable balance between inflation and growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was almost three
times higher than the previous decade's average, which stood at 2.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to an estimated
50.7% in 2022, from 51.7% in 2021.
The business environment has improved significantly in recent years. In 2020, Mauritania ranked
152nd in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of 167th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 5.9% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 4.8% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Mauritania will see a modest improvement in its
ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 147th place in 2022 to 143rd place in 2037.
Mauritania
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-37%
-30%
-14%
-4%
-
5%
33%
68%
112%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
7
7
10
10
10
14
20
28
Rank
147
148
149
144
147
147
145
144
143
147
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mauritius
Mauritius is a small, tropical island nation situated in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of East Africa.
The Mauritian economy is slowly recovering from the sharp contraction of 14.9% it experienced
during the pandemic in 2020, registering growth of 4.0% in 2021 and an expected 6.1% in 2022. The
tourism sector, which accounts directly and indirectly for over a fifth of the economy, is gradually
picking up, although at a slower pace compared to its peers in the Indian Ocean. Overall, output in
2022 is expected to have stood 6.0% below 2019 levels, with a catch-up expected in 2024.
Inflation picked up significantly from 4.0% in 2021 to an expected 10.2% in 2022. This has been driven
by higher fuel and food prices, rising freight costs, and a depreciating currency and. Indeed, the local
currency has depreciated by almost 20% since the start of the pandemic. Inflation is likely to remain
elevated in 2023 in spite of base effects, well exceeding the previous decade's average of 2.9%.
The country's public debt level, which was already following an upward trend even before the
pandemic, shot up to 99.2% of GDP in 2020 after unprecedented support packages amounting to
28% of GDP were introduced. Public debt has remained elevated since the onset of the pandemic,
standing at an expected 90.9% of GDP in 2022. To reduce fiscal vulnerabilities, the IMF has called for
consolidation efforts, with a particular focus on pension reforms. Current pension generosity
combined with an ageing population could threaten the sustainability of public finances in the long
term and leave the country highly susceptible to shocks.
The high share of the labour force not in work has been a barrier to growth for the economy, with a
notably high female inactivity rate. This remains the case despite the unemployment rate having
fallen by an expected 1.4 percentage points to 7.7% in 2022.
Over the four years to 2020, Mauritius became more competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country reaching 13th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 31st.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.9%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 3.3% per year. Despite this, over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Mauritius will
move up the World Economic League Table rankings, from 144th position in 2022 to 135th in 2037.
Mauritius
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-32%
-17%
0%
-6%
-
5%
21%
42%
67%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
12
13
11
12
13
20
26
34
Rank
134
132
127
142
144
141
135
135
135
148
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mexico
Mexico is an upper middle-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$22,440 in 2022. Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest economy behind Brazil. The country is
situated in the southern-most portion of North America, bordering the United States to the north and
Belize and Guatemala in the south.
The Mexican economy has shown robust if unspectacular growth since late 2021 with GDP expanding
at quarterly rates of between 0.9% and 1.2% in the four quarters to Q3 2022. A contraction in GDP of
8.1% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 4.8% and an expected 2.2% in 2021 and 2022,
respectively. This left output 1.5% below 2019 levels. The economy is instead expected to reach pre-
crisis levels in 2024.
The Mexican manufacturing sector is highly integrated with its northern neighbours, facilitated by the
United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. As such, the Mexican economy benefited from
the post-pandemic recovery in US economic activity.
In line with global trends, inflation accelerated notably in the aftermath of the pandemic, rising to a
temporary high of 8.7% in September 2022 before falling back to 8.4% in October. Much of the
uptick in inflation happened already in 2021, when the annual increase in the price level rose from
3.5% in January to 7.4% in December that year.
In reaction to high levels of inflation, as well as in anticipation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve,
the Central Bank of Mexico raised its benchmark policy rate in several steps to stand at 10.0% by
November 2022. This has helped to stabilise the value of the peso against the US dollar.
Looking ahead, the Mexican economy is exposed to a slowdown in US growth in 2023. Moreover, the
country is still grappling with high levels of crime and corruption. The current administration under
Andres Manuel López Obrador has so far failed to reign in the drug cartels responsible for much of
the violent crime, with the country on track to record more than 30,000 homicides for a fifth
consecutive year in 2022. High levels of inequality and the lack of economic development in the
country’s south are further long-standing challenges for the country.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Mexico ranked 60th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of
44th in 2016.
Mexico
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-18%
-12%
0%
-2%
-
1%
9%
21%
36%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,053
1,201
1,159
1,298
1,435
1,547
1,720
2,106
2,594
Rank
14
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
15
149
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
1.7%. With that being said, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to accelerate to an average of 2.2% per year. Cebr forecasts show the World Economic League Table
ranking of Mexico unchanged over the next 15 years, at 15th.
150
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Micronesia
As of 2022, Micronesia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,675 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. After contracting by 1.8% in 2020, the economy shrank by a
further 3.2% and an estimated 0.6% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This left output 5.6% below 2019
levels.
Despite a shrinkage in the size of the economy in 2022, consumer price inflation is expected to have
stood at a high rate of 5.8%. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 1.5%.
Government debt is relatively low, currently standing at around 14.2% of GDP, compared to 15.0% in
2021. The government operated an estimated fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2022, despite the
global turbulence in public finances induced by the pandemic and rising inflation. The combination of
a relatively low debt burden and a fiscal surplus mean that the public finances are in a strong
position, which will support private sector confidence and investment, whilst also providing the
government with greater fiscal ammunition in the future.
The performance of the private sector in Micronesia is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 158th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 150th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 1.7%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 0.6%
per year. In the coming 15 years, Micronesia is forecast to retain its 2022 World Economic League
Table position of 186th.
Micronesia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
0%
3%
5%
1%
-
3%
9%
12%
15%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
Rank
186
187
188
186
186
186
186
186
186
151
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Moldova
Classified as an upper-middle-income European country, Moldova had an estimated PPP adjusted
GDP per capita of $16,483 in 2022.
Meanwhile, consumer price inflation is expected to have stood at a very high 28.5%. Just nine other
countries worldwide are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. Although the
previous decade's average of 5.4% was also relatively high by European comparison, inflation is
thought to have accelerated from this average more than fivefold in 2022.
The Moldovan unemployment rate remained low at an estimated 3.5% in 2022 unchanged on the
previous year. Despite an increase in government debt as a share of GDP to an estimated 36.0% in
2022, the public finances remain in a relatively strong position. In 2021, public sector debt stood at
33.1% of GDP. Moreover, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 6.2% of GDP in 2022. While this
represents a relatively high level of government borrowing, the low level of public sector debt means
that, at least in the short term, there is the fiscal space to justify this approach, particularly
considering the greater role for government intervention in recent years.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Moldova, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 70.0% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
The performance of the private sector in Moldova is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 48th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 45th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 4.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an even faster rate of
5.0% on average each year. Between 2022 and 2037, Moldova is forecast to move from 134th place
to 131st place in the World Economic League Table, a three-place improvement in the rankings.
Moldova
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-37%
-29%
-11%
0%
-
2%
26%
60%
105%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
9
10
14
15
16
19
27
38
Rank
146
143
143
135
134
133
137
133
131
152
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mongolia
Mongolia is a lower-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $13,611 as of 2022.
After the economy shrank by 4.6% in 2020, growth of 1.6% was achieved in 2021. This was followed
by an estimated 2022 expansion by 2.5%, leaving output 0.6% below 2019 levels. Looking ahead, a
GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 14.8%. The economy
therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. The estimated
growth in consumer prices in 2022 more than doubled compared to the previous decade's average of
7.3%.
One of the factors boosting growth over 2022 was an expected 0.8 percentage point fall in the
unemployment rate to 7.3%. This rate still, however, remains relatively high, and a stronger labour
market would help to deliver more sustained growth in the years ahead. Government debt as a share
of GDP reached an estimated 84.4% in 2022. This is above the already high 79.8% registered the
previous year. The government is expected to have run a relatively tight ship over the past year.
Indeed, the fiscal deficit in 2022 is thought to have been a mere 0.4% of GDP. This is in spite of the
economic and fiscal challenges generated by the pandemic and mounting global cost-of-living
pressures. While fiscal consolidation will be necessary in the future, the challenging circumstances
may require more government spending than would otherwise be advisable in the short term.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 5.7% between
2023 and 2027, before slowing to an average of 5.0% per year between 2028 and 2037. In the
coming 15 years, Mongolia is expected to gradually move up in the World Economic League Table,
from 129th position in 2022 to 125th place in 2037.
Mongolia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-33%
-12%
-2%
-
5%
32%
68%
115%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
12
11
15
16
17
24
33
46
Rank
148
130
137
128
129
131
127
126
125
153
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Montenegro
As of 2022, Montenegro is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $26,032 and is
classified as an upper-middle-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 15.3% in
2020, growth, at 13.0%, was seen in 2021. Further growth of 7.2% is expected to have been seen in
2022, leaving output 2.6% above 2019 levels.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 12.8% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 far exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.4%.
The country's level of government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio thought
to have stood at 74.4% in 2022. This is significantly below the 86.6% recorded in 2021.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
2.9%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to slightly increase to
an average of 3.0% per year. This growth trajectory will see Montenegro fall from 151st place in the
World Economic League Table in 2022 to 153rd in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of two
places.
Montenegro
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-24%
-11%
-7%
-
2%
15%
34%
55%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
4
5
6
6
6
8
11
13
Rank
153
156
154
151
151
152
153
153
153
154
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Morocco
As of 2022, Morocco is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $9,808 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 7.2%
in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 7.9%,
followed by expected further growth of 0.8% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
0.9% above 2019 levels in 2022.
While the economy saw slow growth in 2022, consumer prices grew rather swiftly over the same
period, by an anticipated 6.2%. This has raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price
rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 largely exceeded the previous decade's
average of 1.0%.
The high share of the labour force not in work has been a barrier to growth for the economy. This
remains the case despite the unemployment rate having fallen by an expected 0.8 percentage points
to 11.1% in 2022. Government debt as a share of GDP reached an anticipated 70.3% in 2022,
compared to 68.9% the previous year.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.1% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 3.4% per year. In the coming 15 years, Morocco is expected to slightly drift down
the World Economic League Table, from 59th position in 2022 to 61st place in 2037.
Morocco
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-36%
-21%
-7%
-1%
-
3%
17%
38%
62%
Current price GDP, USD bn
86
106
119
143
135
136
192
249
322
Rank
60
61
60
59
59
59
60
61
61
155
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Mozambique
Mozambique is a low-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,457 as of 2022. The
COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 1.2% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy
experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.3%, followed by expected further growth
of 3.7% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 4.9% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Positive output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 11.3% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 6.1%.
Standing at an estimated 102.4% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high.
However, the public finances are slowly moving in the right direction, with the expected debt to GDP
ratio in 2022 down from 106.4% in 2021. Government borrowing as a share of GDP stood at an
anticipated 3.4% in 2022. These figures mean that public sector debt will continue to pose a
challenge for the economy in the coming years, as the government faces the balancing act of
supporting households and businesses while containing the debt burden.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 9.1%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to decline to a nonetheless impressive average of 6.4% per year. The next 15 years are set to see
Mozambique climb rapidly up the rankings of the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that
its position will move from 124th in 2022 to 106th in 2037, a sizeable 18-place improvement in the
rankings.
Mozambique
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-51%
-32%
-10%
-4%
-
5%
54%
122%
187%
Current price GDP, USD bn
10
16
13
16
18
20
31
50
71
Rank
121
119
128
126
124
117
115
106
106
156
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Myanmar
As of 2022, Myanmar is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,830 and is classified
as a lower-middle-income country. The economy bucked the conventional norms of declining in the
pandemic, by growing 3.2% in 2020. There was a reversal of fortunes in 2021, however, which
heralded a decline of 17.9% in 2021. 2022 saw a recovery for the economy, with growth estimated to
amount to 2.0%. In spite of growth in 2022, output still remains 13.7% below 2019 levels.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 16.2%, thus joining
the list of economies with a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. The
estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 5.7%.
Government debt as a share of GDP reached an estimated 62.5% in 2022, compared to 62.3% the
previous year.
The regulatory environment in Myanmar is less competitive than that of many of its peers. The
country ranked in 165th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its
ranking was 170th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 3.3%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to minimally decline to an average of 3.1% per year. In the coming 15 years, Myanmar is expected to
gradually move up in the World Economic League Table, from 88th position in 2022 to 84th place in
2037.
Myanmar
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-46%
-28%
2%
-2%
-
3%
17%
37%
59%
Current price GDP, USD bn
18
59
61
65
61
63
88
113
144
Rank
102
73
75
80
88
87
83
83
84
157
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Namibia
Namibia is an upper-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $10,791 as of 2022.
After experiencing a GDP contraction of 8.0% in 2020, the economy saw 2.7% growth in 2021 and an
expected 3.0% in 2022. As such, output in 2022 is thought to have stood 2.8% below 2019 levels,
with a catch-up expected in 2023.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 6.4%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 4.8%, although was not as high as in most countries.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen back slightly to 71.8% in 2022, down
from 72.0% the previous year.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.5% on average each
year. In the coming 15 years, Namibia is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League
Table, from 141st position in 2022 to 146th place in 2037.
Namibia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-26%
-11%
3%
-3%
-
3%
14%
29%
46%
Current price GDP, USD bn
9
13
13
12
12
12
18
22
27
Rank
126
125
131
137
141
143
140
141
146
158
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Nauru
As of 2022, Nauru is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $10,834 and is classified as a
high-income country. Following the rare achievement of economic growth in 2020, amounting to
0.7%, the economy expanded further in 2021, by 1.6%. While growth is thought to have continued in
2022, it is judged to have slowed to an estimated 0.9%.
Positive output growth for the economy in 2022 was paired with a small rise in consumer prices, at an
anticipated 2.0%. Resultantly, the economy achieved a relatively more favourable growth-inflation
trade-off compared to other economies worldwide. Estimated inflation in 2022 was in line with the
previous decade's average of 2.2%, in stark contrast to many other countries in a year when inflation
has drastically risen around the globe.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to 27.3% in 2022, which remains at a low level. Looking
back, public sector debt stood at 27.1% of GDP in 2021. The government has maintained discipline
with its fiscal policy, with an estimated fiscal surplus equivalent to 16.3% of GDP in 2022. The strength
of the public finances means that country has room to harness growth-augmenting expansionary
fiscal policies in future.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 2.0%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected
to slightly decline to an average of 1.8% per year. In the coming 15 years, Nauru is forecast to retain its
2022 World Economic League Table position of 190th.
Nauru
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-70%
-45%
-9%
-1%
-
2%
10%
21%
33%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
Rank
192
192
192
190
190
190
190
190
190
159
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Nepal
As of 2022, Nepal is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,677 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 2.4% in
2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 4.2%,
followed by expected further growth of 4.2% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
6.1% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Inflation is expected to have averaged 6.3% in 2022, close to the previous decade's average of 6.7%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have reached 49.1% in 2022, compared to 45.8%
the previous year.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Nepal, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2045 has been
referred to in a government policy document.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 5.1% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.0% on average each
year. This impressive growth path would see Nepal overtake many of its peers in the World Economic
League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve from 101st place in 2022 to 89th place by
2037, a dramatic 12-place improvement in the rankings.
Nepal
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-48%
-34%
-18%
-4%
-
5%
28%
64%
109%
Current price GDP, USD bn
12
22
29
36
38
40
59
82
116
Rank
116
107
101
99
101
99
96
93
89
160
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Netherlands
The Netherlands is a high-income economy, witnessing an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$69,715 in 2022. It is one of the six founding states of the European Union (EU) and ranks amongst
the bloc’s wealthiest states. It is characterised by a large services sector and significant volumes of
foreign trade.
Having contracted by 3.9% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy bounced back
in 2021, with growth of 4.9%. This has been followed by expected growth of 4.5% in 2022. As a
result, output is now approximately 5.3% above the levels seen in 2019.
Inflation has hit the Netherlands hard, having one of the highest rates in Europe in 2022, at an
estimated 12.0%. Such inflation has been the result of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
and other sources of supply disruption, mirroring the trends seen across the continent. The
Netherlands has been particularly exposed to price rises for natural gas, with the share of homes
being heated by this source being high relative to other European countries. Away from energy, there
is evidence of Dutch inflation becoming more broad-based in recent months, with particular growth
in food prices.
Such price growth is putting significant pressure on consumer spending power in the Netherlands,
which already sees above average living costs compared to the rest of Europe. As a result of this
consumer pressure, a significant slowdown in output growth is expected in 2023, amounting to an
increase of just 0.8%. Beyond this, average growth of 1.6% is forecast for 2024 to 2027, before a
steady state rate of 1.5% until 2037. Over this period, the Netherlands’ WELT ranking is expected to
be broadly constant, placing 19th in all but one year of the forecast horizon.
Netherlands
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-16%
-16%
-9%
-4%
-
1%
7%
16%
25%
Current price GDP, USD bn
849
839
834
1,014
985
1,024
1,243
1,484
1,771
Rank
16
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
161
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
New Zealand
As of 2022, New Zealand is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $50,851 and is
classified as a high-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 2.1%
in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.6%,
followed by expected further growth of 2.3% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
5.8% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite a modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 6.3%. The
economy therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. The
estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.5%.
Underpinning GDP growth in 2022 has been a resilient labour market. In 2022, the unemployment
rate fell by an anticipated 0.4 percentage points to 3.4%. Government debt as a share of GDP is
expected to have reached 56.6% in 2022, compared to 50.8% the previous year.
New Zealand has set a commitment in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
The performance of the private sector in New Zealand is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked first in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, same position as in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow slightly to an average of 2.2% between 2023 and
2027. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.4% on average
each year. This growth trajectory will see New Zealand climb from 52nd place in the World Economic
League Table in 2022 to 51st by 2037, a gain of one place.
New Zealand
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-28%
-25%
-11%
-2%
-
2%
11%
25%
40%
Current price GDP, USD bn
135
175
204
247
237
236
314
388
479
Rank
52
55
51
50
52
53
52
52
51
162
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Nicaragua
Nicaragua is a lower-middle-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $7,154
as of 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 1.8% in 2020. Nonetheless,
the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 10.3%, followed by expected
further growth of 4.0% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 12.7% above 2019
levels in 2022.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an estimated 9.9%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The
estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 5.1%.
The unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by 3.6 percentage points to 7.5% in 2022. While
this strengthening of the labour market is a positive for the economy going forward, the high rate of
unemployment remains a drag overall. Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have
fallen to 47.0% in 2022, down from 49.4% the previous year.
Over the four years to 2020, Nicaragua became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 142nd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing
Business Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 129th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 3.6%.
However, between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
accelerate slightly to 3.8% per year. In the coming 15 years, Nicaragua is expected to slightly drift
down the World Economic League Table, from 130th position in 2022 to 133rd place in 2037.
Nicaragua
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-36%
-24%
-5%
-4%
-
3%
19%
44%
73%
Current price GDP, USD bn
7
11
14
14
16
17
21
28
38
Rank
138
138
125
132
130
130
133
132
133
163
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Niger
Classified as a low-income country, Niger had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,443 in
2022. The economy saw output growth in all three years from 2020 to 2022, with growth amounting
to 3.6%, 1.3%, and an estimated 6.7%, respectively.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside estimated 4.5% inflation. While lower than price growth rates seen in some
parts of the world, 2022 inflation in Niger was still well above the previous decade's average of 1.0%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have climbed to 57.1% in 2022, up from 51.2% the
previous year.
Over the four years to 2020, Niger became more competitive in terms of its regulatory environment,
with the country reaching 132nd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In
2016, the country's ranking was 155th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 8.0%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip to 6.0% per
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Niger in the World Economic
League Table will improve considerably, with its ranking rising from 136th to 113th by 2037. This would
represent a 23-place gain in the rankings.
Niger
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-40%
-21%
-6%
-
7%
47%
96%
163%
Current price GDP, USD bn
6
9
11
15
15
15
27
39
58
Rank
142
142
139
129
136
134
123
121
113
164
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Nigeria
Nigeria is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,884 as
of 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 1.8% in 2020, the Nigerian economy posted
growth of 3.6% in 2021. A further expansion of 3.2% is expected in 2022, leaving output 5.0% above
2019 levels.
Oil production represents a driving force of Nigeria’s economy. Yet, across 2022, the economy has
failed to realise significant gains from rising global oil prices and has struggled to meet the OPEC+
quota. This came as the country has seen limited investment in its oil infrastructure in recent decades,
in addition to theft on the pipelines and the financing of petroleum product subsidies directly via
deductions from oil earnings. Indeed, oil production slowed to a 50-year low of 1.13 million barrels
per day in August 2022. Instead, Nigeria’s non-oil sector has come to play a growing role in
supporting economic activity.
Inflation reached 21.1% in November 2022, the highest rate since September 2005, driven by an
increase in food and fuel prices. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to average 18.9% in 2022 and
remain high at 17.3% in 2023, exceeding the previous decade's average of 12.4%. Inflation has stood
in double digits in Africa's biggest economy since 2016, mainly driven by a weakening of its currency.
The naira has weakened on the parallel market due to a scarcity of foreign currency. This comes after
the central bank stopped currency sales to retail traders in an attempt to ease pressure on reserves
and support the official market.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to an estimated 37.4% in 2022, up from 36.6% in 2021. A
relatively low debt burden provided the government with the fiscal headroom to operate a budget
deficit of 6.2% in 2022, although this marked the fifth consecutive yearly increase. The growth in the
deficit in 2022 was supported by the high cost of the petroleum product subsidy, further damaging
already-weak oil revenues.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, Nigeria has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2060. It came
131st in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the country's regulatory
environment made strides forward relative to other comparable countries. In 2016, Nigeria’s ranking
was 148th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.9% between 2023 and
2037. Despite this, in the coming 15 years, Nigeria is expected to gradually move up in the World
Economic League Table, from 32nd position in 2022 to 30th place in 2037.
Nigeria
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-43%
-20%
-9%
-3%
-
3%
16%
33%
54%
Current price GDP, USD bn
262
461
376
442
490
519
687
871
1,105
Rank
34
27
32
32
32
29
29
30
30
165
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Norway
Norway had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $78,128 in 2022, making it the sixth ranked
country in the world on this measure. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by
0.7% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of
3.9%, followed by expected further growth of 3.6% in 2022. Consequently, on an annual basis,
output is judged to have stood 6.9% above 2019 levels in 2022.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.7% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Inflation in 2022 has, however, been high relative to the
previous decade's average of 2.2%, partly as a result of rising energy prices. Nonetheless, annual
inflation appeared to be plateauing at around 6.8% in Q3 of 2022, with expectations that October’s
7.5% rate may have marked a peak. Norges Bank has progressively raised its Policy Rate from 1.25%
mid-year to 2.75% in December in its attempt to dampen inflation.
Historically insulated from energy cost inflation by its hydroelectric production, increased
interconnection and trading with Europe means Norway’s consumers are now exposed to variations
in the cost of energy elsewhere in Europe.
Norway’s role as a supplier of fossil fuel to its European neighbours has taken on increased
importance in 2022. Previously the second largest exporter of gas to the EU, it has now taken over
from Russia as the largest supplier. Norway’s ability to export its oil and gas reserves is enhanced by
limited internal use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, and reducing dependence on
hydrocarbons in other sectors. It therefore plays an important role in European energy security.
Despite moderate output performance, the Norwegian labour market remains strong. Indeed, the
unemployment rate declined by an expected 0.5 percentage points to 3.9% in 2022. The country's
level of government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio standing at an
estimated 40.3% in 2022. This is below the 43.4% recorded in 2021.
Norway has legally committed to reduce carbon emissions by 95.0% compared to 1990 levels by
2050. With almost all of its electricity generation coming from renewable sources, this reduction
focuses on transportation and industrial emissions. Norway is a leader in EV uptake, with 86% of car
registrations in 2021 either battery or plug-in hybrid.
Norway
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-18%
-15%
-8%
-4%
-
3%
9%
14%
18%
Current price GDP, USD bn
401
510
398
482
503
487
596
683
781
Rank
25
23
29
30
30
31
35
40
41
166
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
1.8%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further, to
an average of 0.8% per year. As such, over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Norway will fall
significantly in the World Economic League Table rankings, from 30th position in 2022 to 41st in 2037.
167
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Oman
As of 2022, Oman is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $41,150 and is classified as a
high-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 3.2% in 2020, the economy grew by 3.0% in
2021 and by an estimated 4.4% in 2022, bringing output 4.0% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
The sultanate managed to keep consumer price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 3.1% in
2022, while also seeing strong output growth. Still, the estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.9%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 45.4% in 2022, down from 62.9%
the previous year.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, Oman has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.7% on average each
year. In the coming 15 years, Oman is expected to slightly drift down the World Economic League
Table, from 68th position in 2022 to 71st place in 2037.
Oman
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-39%
-19%
-4%
-4%
-
4%
14%
30%
48%
Current price GDP, USD bn
48
87
81
86
109
114
132
166
207
Rank
69
66
67
70
68
67
67
68
71
168
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Pakistan
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Pakistan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $6,662 as of 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 0.9% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.7%, followed
by expected further growth of 5.2% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 10.2%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Pakistan has made significant strides in reducing poverty since the onset of the 21st-centruy, with
poverty declining from 64.3% in 2001 to 21.9% in 2018. Much of this has been due to an expansion of
non-agriculture economic opportunities and large remittance flows, with the latter seeing growth of
approximately 20% in 2021, buoyed by the post-pandemic recovery in many advanced economies.
Meanwhile, over the four years to 2020, Pakistan became more competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country reaching 108th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 140th.
Downside risks do remain for Pakistan, however. Weaker demand from trade partners will weigh
heavily on its export sector. Moreover, the country continues to struggle with internal political
turmoil, which will continue to affect foreign direct investment inflows into the country and prevent
timely policy decisions. Moreover, Pakistan’s investment into flood defences has been lagging
compared with its South Asian counterparts, including Bangladesh. This is pertinent, especially
considering the floods that affected Pakistan this year, which is expected to result in a loss of output
of approximately 2.2% of fiscal year 2021/22 GDP quite apart from damaging more than 300,000
houses and displacing 600,000 people. The country will need to ramp up its efforts to ensure that
appropriate safeguards are in place to avoid such a disaster again.
Moreover, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 12.1% in 2022, with higher energy prices, a
weaker currency and flood-related spill over effects placing upward pressure on the headline rate of
inflation. This compares with the previous decade's average of 6.9%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 went hand in hand with the robustness of the
labour market. Indeed, over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1 percentage
points to 6.2%. Meanwhile, government debt as a share of GDP reached 77.8% in 2022, compared to
74.9% the previous year, reflecting increased expenditure needs and a hit on revenue due to natural
disasters.
Pakistan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-42%
-32%
-17%
-5%
-
3%
22%
49%
82%
Current price GDP, USD bn
172
253
339
348
325
346
547
733
981
Rank
46
43
36
43
43
43
40
37
34
169
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 4.1% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 4.0% on average each
year. This impressive growth path would see Pakistan overtake many of its peers in the World
Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve from 43rd place in 2022 to 34th
place by 2037, a dramatic 9-place improvement in the rankings.
170
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Palau
Palau, a nation consisting of hundreds of islands in the western Pacific, had an estimated PPP
adjusted GDP per capita of $13,215 in 2022. After contracting by 8.9% in 2020, the economy shrank
by a further 13.4% and 2.8% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. On an annual basis, this left output 23.3%
below 2019 levels.
Part of the reason for the continued GDP declines is the country’s strict Covid containment policy
which saw borders closed for a couple of years, thereby weighing heavily on the tourism sector.
Despite a shrinkage in the size of the economy in 2022, consumer price inflation is expected to have
stood at a high rate of 12.2%. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 1.8%.
Palau came 145th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that the
country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 132nd.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 6.6%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip to 3.2% per
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Palau is forecast to move from 188th place to 187th place in the World
Economic League Table, a single-place improvement in the rankings.
Palau
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
29%
19%
30%
3%
-
12%
37%
60%
88%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
Rank
187
189
189
188
188
188
187
187
187
171
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Panama
Panama is a high-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $36,370 as of
2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 17.9% in 2020, growth, at 15.3%, was seen in 2021.
Further growth of 7.5% is estimated for 2022, leaving output 1.8% above 2019 levels.
Unlike many other economies, the country managed to keep consumer price growth at a moderate
level, at an expected 3.9% in 2022, while also seeing strong output growth. Still, the estimated
growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.5%.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 was aided by an estimated 1.8 percentage-
point decline in the unemployment rate to 9.5%. The country's level of government debt is moderate,
with the public sector debt to GDP ratio thought to have stood at 55.6% in 2022. This is below the
58.4% recorded in 2021.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Panama, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
Panama came 86th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which suggests that the
country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its conduciveness to
business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 72nd.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 4.2% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.9% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Panama will see a slight worsening of its position in
the World Economic League Table, dropping from 77th place in 2022 to 78th place in 2037.
Panama
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-51%
-30%
-8%
-7%
-
4%
23%
44%
63%
Current price GDP, USD bn
21
40
62
64
71
76
106
127
159
Rank
98
90
74
82
77
77
73
78
78
172
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Papua New Guinea
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Papua New Guinea had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP
per capita of $4,271 in 2022. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 3.5% in 2020, growth, at 1.2%,
was seen in 2021. Further growth of 3.8% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 1.4%
above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 6.6%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth down over the longer-term.
The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 5.1%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is anticipated to have fallen to 49.9% in 2022, down from 50.9%
the previous year.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 3.4%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 3.0% per
year. In the coming 15 years, Papua New Guinea is expected to gradually drift down the World
Economic League Table, from 104th position in 2022 to 110th place in 2037.
Papua New Guinea
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-31%
-5%
-4%
-
5%
18%
37%
59%
Current price GDP, USD bn
10
21
23
27
31
33
37
48
61
Rank
122
109
110
107
104
102
107
108
110
173
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Paraguay
As of 2022, Paraguay is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $14,528 and is classified
as an upper-middle-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 0.8% in 2020, growth
of 4.2% was seen in 2021. Marginal growth of 0.2% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving
output 3.6% above 2019 levels.
Despite sluggish economic performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 9.5%. This has
raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high
relative to the previous decade's average of 3.5%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate declined by 0.6 percentage points to 7.2%. However, the share of
the labour force out of work remains high, which will have been one of the factors weighing on
consumer spending and in turn the tepid economic growth estimated over the past 12 months.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated at 39.3% in 2022, up from 37.7% in 2021. The
government is anticipated to have operated a rather high fiscal deficit of 4.9% in 2022, facilitated in
part by the low debt to GDP ratio. This will have acted to bolster the economy in the past 12 months.
The performance of the private sector in Paraguay has been inhibited by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In 2020, the
country ranked 125th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 104th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 3.7%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 3.5%
per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Paraguay will retain its World Economic League
Table ranking of 96th.
Paraguay
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-40%
-27%
-6%
0%
-
4%
20%
42%
69%
Current price GDP, USD bn
18
33
39
39
42
44
59
77
101
Rank
101
94
94
97
96
96
95
96
96
174
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Peru
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Peru had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$15,273 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 11.0% in 2020, the economy recovered strongly in
2021, growing by 13.6%. In 2022, Peruvian GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.7%, bringing output
to 3.8% above 2019 levels.
While the economy grew only moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately
faster rate over the same period, at an estimated 7.5%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-
off between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous
decade's average of 2.9%.
The economy grew well in 2022 in spite of a high rate of unemployment (7.6% expected).
Encouragingly, the share of the labour force that is out of work is estimated to have declined by 3.3
percentage points over the year. The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a
share of GDP estimated to have declined to 34.8% in 2022, down from 36.4% in 2021. Along with the
rest of the world, the country has faced significant economic challenges. However, the government
has been restrained with its fiscal policy. In 2022, public sector borrowing stood at an estimated 2.3%
of GDP.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Peru, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has been
referred to in a government policy document.
Over the four years to 2020, Peru became less competitive in terms of its regulatory environment,
with the country falling to 76th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016,
the country's ranking was 60th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will increase marginally
to an average of 3.0%, while over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is
expected to maintain steady at an average of this same rate. In the coming 15 years, Peru is expected
to gradually move up in the World Economic League Table, from 51st position in 2022 to 47th place
in 2037.
Peru
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-24%
-9%
-3%
-
3%
16%
34%
56%
Current price GDP, USD bn
102
193
216
226
249
258
353
450
573
Rank
55
52
49
51
51
51
48
48
47
175
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Philippines
As of 2022, the Philippines is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $10,344 and is
classified as a lower-middle-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract
by 9.5% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of
5.7%, followed by expected further growth of 6.5% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have
stood 1.8% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Although GDP is anticipated to have risen relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an
expected 5.3%. Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth down over
the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous
decade's average of 2.8%.
The economy has been buoyed by a tight labour market, with the share of the labour force not in
work estimated to have fallen by 2.0 percentage points to 5.7% in 2022. The high number of people
in employment is a key strength for the economy, ensuring that consumer spending can be
supported in the short to medium term. There is a moderate level of government debt, with the
public sector debt to GDP ratio expected to stand at 59.3% in 2022. This is slightly above the 57.0%
recorded in 2021.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an albeit still strong average
of 5.3%. Between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will remain
relatively high, at a further 5.0% per annum. As a result of this strong growth forecast, the next 15
years are set to see the Philippines climb rapidly up the rankings of the World Economic League
Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 38th in 2022 to 27th in 2037, a sizeable 11-place
improvement in the rankings.
Philippines
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-37%
-13%
-6%
-
4%
30%
65%
111%
Current price GDP, USD bn
156
262
328
394
397
404
628
880
1,233
Rank
47
41
39
39
38
37
34
29
27
176
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Poland
Poland is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $42,466 as of 2022. The
COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 2.2% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy
experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.9%, followed by expected further growth
of 3.8% in 2022. Consequently, output is estimated to have stood 7.5% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 13.8% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 was well above the previous decade's average of 1.8%.
Underpinning the robust GDP growth in 2022 has been a resilient labour market. In 2022, the
unemployment rate is expected to have fallen by 0.6 percentage points to 2.8%. The country's level
of government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio forecast to stand at 48.7%
as of 2022. This is below the 53.8% recorded in 2021.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Poland, a government policy document has
referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 30.0% compared with 1990 levels by 2030.
Over the four years to 2020, Poland became less competitive in terms of its regulatory environment,
with the country falling to 40th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016,
the country's ranking was 25th. In addition, being close to war hit Ukraine may damage inward
investment prospects.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and 2027,
before easing further over the subsequent decade, when Cebr forecasts the economy to expand by
2.3% on average each year. In the coming 15 years, Poland is expected to remain fairly static in the
World Economic League Table, moving from 23rd position in 2022 to 22nd place in 2037.
Poland
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-39%
-28%
-16%
-4%
-
0%
14%
29%
43%
Current price GDP, USD bn
429
499
527
679
691
718
926
1,152
1,405
Rank
22
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
177
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Portugal
Portugal is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $42,067 as of 2022.
Following a GDP contraction of 8.4% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.9% in 2021 and an expected
6.0% in 2022, bringing anticipated output 1.8% above 2019 GDP levels.
Despite being expected to have achieved strong GDP growth in 2022, the economy also saw a rather
rapid increase in consumer prices, with 7.9% inflation above expected in 2022. The estimated growth
in consumer prices over 2022 significantly exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.8%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate fell by an estimated 0.5 percentage points, to 6.1%. Standing at an
anticipated 114.7% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high. However, the
public finances are moving in the right direction, with the debt to GDP ratio in 2022 down from
127.4% in 2021. Public sector borrowing stood at an expected 1.9% of GDP in 2022. This suggests that
a robust rate of economic growth in the coming years could start to see the country's debt ratio
recede slightly.
Portugal has set a legal commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.
Portugal came 39th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, which while still high,
suggests that the country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its
conduciveness to business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 27th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
1.7%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to increase slightly, to
an average of 1.9% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Portugal will retain its World
Economic League Table ranking of 50th.
Portugal
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-7%
-13%
-7%
-6%
-
1%
9%
20%
31%
Current price GDP, USD bn
241
216
221
250
254
262
322
396
487
Rank
37
47
47
49
50
50
51
50
50
178
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $43,820 as of 2022.
Following a GDP contraction of 3.9% in 2020, the economy grew by 2.7% in 2021 and an expected
4.8% in 2022, bringing output to approximately 3.4% above 2019 levels.
Notably, the country achieved a relatively favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above
average GDP performance alongside 4.4% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp
increase in inflation seen in many economies worldwide. However, the estimated growth in
consumer prices over 2022 still exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.7%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate fell by an estimated 1.9 percentage points to6.0%. The relative
tightness of the labour market will enable some resilience in household expenditure in the coming
months. Government debt is relatively low, currently estimated at just 16.0% of GDP, down sharply
from 47.9% in 2021. The government has maintained strong discipline with its fiscal policy, with an
estimated fiscal surplus equivalent to 1.7% of GDP in 2022. The strength of the public finances means
that country has room to harness growth-augmenting expansionary fiscal policies in future.
Over the next five years, however, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of
0.5%. Even between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
maintain at approximately this level, averaging 0.5% per annum. As a result, over the next 15 years,
Cebr forecasts that Puerto Rico will fall significantly in the World Economic League Table rankings,
from 62nd position in 2022 to 74th in 2037.
Puerto Rico
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
11%
6%
-1%
-5%
-
0%
-3%
0%
2%
Current price GDP, USD bn
90
102
103
108
119
123
133
152
175
Rank
58
62
63
63
62
62
66
73
74
179
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Qatar
Qatar is a high-income country that is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $113,675
and of 2022. GDP in the country contracted by 3.6% in 2020 but returned to growth in 2021 with a
1.6% expansion. Growth is set to have accelerated to 3.4% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to
have stood 1.3% above 2019 pre-Covid levels in 2022.
One development supporting growth in 2021 and 2022 will have been the easing of political and
economic sanctions on Qatar which Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE had in place from 2017
to January 2021.
Late 2022 also saw the FIFA World Cup take place in the country. The exact economic impact of the
event is difficult to quantify as it will be spread over a number of years, both past and forthcoming. In
terms of economic activity already generated, tourism, hospitality and infrastructure will have
benefited from the additional expenditure in the country. Looking ahead, Qatar will be hoping to reap
the benefits of added global exposure and increased soft power. This may be limited by the fact that
some of the global coverage surrounding the World Cup has been negative, specifically regarding
allegations of using inappropriate means to ensure Qatar was chosen as the host location and
dangerous working conditions for workers hired to develop the needed infrastructure.
Looking at investment into Qatar more generally, the business environment has deteriorated relative
to other countries in recent years. In 2020, Qatar ranked 77th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing
Business Index. This compared to a ranking of 64th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 3.2% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Qatar will retain its World Economic League Table
ranking of 54th.
Qatar
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-18%
-3%
-3%
-
2%
14%
34%
56%
Current price GDP, USD bn
76
187
161
180
221
234
258
333
427
Rank
62
53
56
57
54
54
55
54
54
180
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Romania
As of 2022, Romania is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $38,097 and is classified
as a high-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 3.7% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 5.9%, followed
by strong expected further growth of 4.8% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood
6.8% above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite rather strong output growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a very high 13.3% in
2022. Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to
achieve a more desirable balance between inflation and growth. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 significantly exceeded the previous decade's average of 2.4%.
Underpinning the robust GDP growth in 2022 has been a resilient labour market. In 2022, the
unemployment rate fell by an estimated 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%. The country's level of
government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio expected to stand at 49.7% in
2022. This is below the 51.4% recorded in 2021.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Romania, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Over the four years to 2020, Romania became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 55th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 38th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.5% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 3.0% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Romania is forecast to move from 46th place to 44th place in the
World Economic League Table, a two-place improvement in the rankings.
Romania
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-33%
-31%
-14%
-5%
-
3%
19%
38%
60%
Current price GDP, USD bn
175
171
212
284
299
308
400
512
652
Rank
44
57
50
47
46
44
46
45
44
181
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Russia
Russia is classified as an upper-middle income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $31,967 in 2022. Russia is the largest country on earth, covering around 11% of the world’s land
mass. It is also one of the world’s largest producers of fossil fuels and a wide range of minerals.
On 24 February, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Following the
successful defence of the initial onslaught by Ukraine’s Armed Forces, a protracted war unfolded over
the course of 2022 with tens of thousands of causalities on both sides. It has become the deadliest
armed conflict in Europe since WWII.
European countries, the US and other allies condemned the Russian aggression and responded by
levying a range of sanctions on Russia, targeting the country's exports, assets of oligarchs and the
banking sector.
Russia’s has sought to undermine the West’s support of Ukraine by leveraging its role as a major
exporter of fossil fuels. In particular, Europe’s dependency on Russian natural gas exports was
identified as a pressure point. Russia gradually reduced gas exports into Europe in the months
following the outbreak of the war, by closing the NordStream1 and Yamal pipelines. Supplies through
the Turkstream pipeline via the Black Sea and the Sudzha route in Ukraine are still flowing as of
December 2022.
The EU has implemented a ban on Russian coal imports, while a broader coalition including G7 allies
as well as Australia have agreed on an import ban of Russian seaborne crude oil. The oil ban, which
came into effect in early December, is complemented by a price cap that limits the price at which
Russian oil can trade on the global market to $60 per barrel. This will be achieved by banning
Western shipping and insurance firms from working on oil shipments that exceed the price cap. We
expect Russia to largely be able to circumvent the price cap by using services domiciled in countries
not participating scheme, such as India and China.
The impact of the sanctions on Russia’s economy has been mixed so far, with higher commodity
prices in some cases more than offsetting the revenue impacts of the reduction in trading volumes.
Nevertheless, the sanctions on technology imports to Russia are limiting domestic production and
driving inflation, which stood at 12.6% in October 2022, down from a high of 17.8% in April.
Due to the revenues generated from exports of oil and gas, Russia’s public finances are robust with
debt to GDP standing at just $16.2 billion in 2022, down from $17 billion in 2023.
Russia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-13%
-4%
-2%
5%
-
-3%
1%
8%
15%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,393
2,191
1,575
1,779
2,116
2,065
2,098
2,460
2,885
Rank
11
8
12
11
9
9
12
14
14
182
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
We expect the Russian economy to have contracted by 5.0% in 2022, followed by a further fall in
economic output of 2.8% in 2023 and flat growth in 2024. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr
forecasts that the economy will expand at a faster rate of 1.3% on average each year. Between 2022
and 2037, Russia is forecast to move from ninth place to 14th place in the World Economic League
Table, a 5-place fall in the rankings.
183
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Rwanda
Classified as a low-income country, Rwanda had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,836
in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 3.4% in 2020, the economy recovered strongly, growing by
10.9% in 2021 and an estimated 6.0% in 2022, bringing output to an anticipated 13.6% above 2019
levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 9.5% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 3.8%.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio expected to
stand at 68.1% in 2022. This is slightly above the 66.6% recorded in 2021.
Rwanda came 38th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index, indicating that the
country's regulatory environment made significant strides forward relative to other comparable
countries. In 2016, the country's ranking was 61st.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to a strong average of 6.7%
between 2023 and 2027, before slowing to an average of 5.1% per year between 2028 and 2037. This
impressive growth path would see Rwanda overtake many of its peers in the World Economic League
Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will improve from 140th place in 2022 to 130th place by 2037, a
significant ten-place improvement in the rankings.
Rwanda
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-63%
-44%
-26%
-6%
-
7%
38%
78%
127%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
8
9
11
12
14
21
29
41
Rank
149
145
144
143
140
140
134
131
130
184
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Samoa
As of 2022, Samoa is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,882 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. After contracting by 3.1% in 2020, the economy shrank by a further
7.1% and an expected 5.0% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This left output 14.5% below 2019 levels.
Despite a shrinkage in the size of the economy in 2022, consumer price inflation is expected to have
stood at a high rate of 8.8%. The estimated growth in consumer prices in 2022 exceeded the previous
decade’s average of 1.2%.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio standing at an
anticipated 46.4% in 2022. This is marginally above the 46.3% recorded in 2021.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 3.5%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 2.6%
per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Samoa will retain its World Economic League
Table ranking of 182nd.
Samoa
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-7%
-2%
13%
5%
-
4%
19%
35%
53%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.5
1.8
Rank
181
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
185
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
San Marino
San Marino is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $72,070 as of 2022. After
suffering from a GDP contraction of 6.7% in 2020, growth, at 5.4%, was seen in 2021. Further growth
of 3.1% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 1.5% above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 6.9%.
Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative to the previous decade's average of 1.2%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen slightly by 0.2 percentage points, to 5.9%.
The tightness of the labour market should enable some resilience in household expenditure in the
coming months. Standing at an anticipated 86.5% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government
debt is high. While the public finances are moving in the right direction (the debt to GDP ratio was
down from 89.2% in 2021), the issue of public sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that stood
at an expected 5.2% in 2022. The pandemic period and more recent cost-of-living crisis are expected
to have increased deficit spending in many economies worldwide.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by San Marino, a government policy document
has referred to an ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 20.0% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
1.1%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to increase slightly to
an average of 1.3% per year. This tepid growth trajectory will see San Marino fall from 174th place in
the World Economic League Table in 2022 to 177th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of three
places.
San Marino
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
28%
-8%
-5%
-3%
-
1%
6%
13%
20%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.2
2.6
3.0
Rank
159
171
174
172
174
176
175
177
177
186
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
São Tomé and Príncipe
As of 2022, São Tomé and Príncipe is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,710 and
is classified as a lower-middle-income country. The economy was an outlier in 2020, growing by
3.0% in spite of the pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 1.9% in 2021. Nonetheless, the
bleak economic climate has weighed heavily on the economy in 2022, with growth estimated to
stand at just1.4%.
While the economy saw slow growth in 2022, consumer prices grew very swiftly over the same
period, by an anticipated 15.0%. This has raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price
rises. While estimated inflation in 2022 was undoubtedly high, this has been a consistent trend, with
the previous decade's average annual inflation rate standing at 7.7%.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to 64.0% in 2022, down from 72.4% the previous year.
São Tomé and Príncipe came 170th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings,
suggesting that the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector. This has also
declined slightly over the preceding four-year period: in 2016, the country's ranking was 166th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.5% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 4.0% per year. However, Cebr forecasts show the World Economic League Table
ranking of São Tomé and Príncipe unchanged over the next 15 years, at 184th.
São Tomé and Príncipe
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-44%
-29%
-11%
-1%
-
3%
19%
44%
75%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
Rank
189
188
187
184
184
184
185
184
184
187
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Saudi Arabia
As of 2022, Saudi Arabia, a high-income country, is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $55,802, a 13.0% increase from 2021. Economic growth in the country accelerated from 3.2% in
2021 to an estimated 7.6% in 2022. As the world’s biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia’s growth
performance has been aided by rising global energy prices.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 2.7% inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in inflation seen in
many economies worldwide, which for many has been driven by rising energy prices that have not
impacted Saudi Arabia in the same way.
The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to an
estimated 24.8% in 2022, down from 30.0% in 2021. The government is thought to have operated a
fiscal surplus of 5.5% of GDP in 2022. The combination of a relatively low debt burden and a fiscal
surplus mean that the public finances are in a strong position, which will support private sector
confidence and investment, whilst also providing the government with greater fiscal ammunition in
the future.
Saudi Arabia has implemented a wide range of initiatives to improve the business environment and
attract foreign direct investment. The Vision 2030 government framework aims to reduce
dependence on oil and diversify the economy to develop public services such as education,
infrastructure, and tourism.
Looking ahead, the annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 3.1% between
2023 and 2027. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.4%
on average each year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table
position of Saudi Arabia to remain stable at 18th.
Saudi Arabia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-36%
-18%
-9%
-7%
-
4%
16%
31%
47%
Current price GDP, USD bn
416
736
689
834
1,009
1,036
1,259
1,561
1,926
Rank
23
19
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
188
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Senegal
As of 2022, Senegal is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,113 and is classified as a
lower-middle-income country. The economy was an outlier in 2020, growing by 1.3% in spite of the
pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 6.1% in 2021 and an anticipated 4.7% in 2022
Despite rather strong growth GDP growth, inflation is expected to have come in at a high 7.5% in
2022. Looking ahead, policymakers may wish to use the contractionary tools at their disposal to
achieve a more desirable balance between inflation and growth. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 far exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.0%.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio standing at an
expected 77.3% in 2022. This is above the 73.2% recorded in 2021.
Over the four years to 2020, Senegal became more competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country reaching 123rd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. For context, in 2016, the country's ranking was 146th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an impressive average of
6.7%. Between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to
5.2% per year, however driven principally by growth in this initial period, Senegal is expected to
gradually move up in the World Economic League Table, from 109th position in 2022 to 102nd place
in 2037.
Senegal
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-48%
-40%
-20%
-5%
-
8%
38%
78%
129%
Current price GDP, USD bn
14
18
21
28
27
29
46
65
92
Rank
109
114
113
106
109
108
102
103
102
189
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Serbia
Serbia, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, saw a mild 0.9% contraction in 2020,
followed by a strong 7.4% rebound in 2021. Further growth of 3.5% is expected to have been seen in
2022, leaving output 10.1% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
Like much of the world, Serbia witnessed high inflation in 2022, at an expected 11.5%. This compares
to the previous decade's average of 3.2%. Inflation accelerated across the year, reaching 15.1% in
November, the highest rate since at least 2007.
The country’s output performance in 2022 was aided by an expected 0.2 percentage-point decline in
the unemployment rate to 9.9%. However, despite this decline, unemployment remains high, which
will constrain levels of consumer spending in the coming years. Government debt as a share of GDP
edged down to 54.4% in 2022, from 57.9% in 2021.
The performance of the economy is further supported by a business environment that fosters private
sector activity. In 2020, Serbia ranked 44th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 51st in 2016.
Following the April 2022 presidential and parliamentary elections, the political landscape in Serbia
continues to be dominated by the re-elected president Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party
(SNS). The Russian invasion of Ukraine posed a diplomatic and strategic dilemma for the
government, due to Serbia’s position as both an EU candidate country and a historic regional ally of
Russia. This longstanding approach of ‘sitting on two chairs’ is becoming increasingly untenable, as
pressure mounts from the EU to either impose sanctions on Russia or face repercussions with regard
to its accession process.
Concerningly, late 2022 saw an escalation of tension in Kosovo, which declared independence from
Serbia in 2008 but which the country does not recognise as an independent state. After years of
relative stability, tensions flared up over authorities in Kosovo requiring the Serbian minority to swap
Serbian licence plates for Kosovar ones. While both Albania and Serbia, as well as various
international organisations, have called for calming of tensions, the risk for conflict remains elevated
compared to previous years.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 3.7% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 4.0% per year. In the coming 15 years, Serbia is expected to gradually climb up the
World Economic League Table, from 86th position in 2022 to 79th place in 2037.
Serbia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-23%
-17%
-3%
-
3%
20%
47%
79%
Current price GDP, USD bn
43
43
44
63
62
66
86
115
155
Rank
75
86
90
83
86
85
84
82
79
190
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Seychelles
As of 2022, Seychelles is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $37,661 and is classified
as a high-income country. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 7.7% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 7.9%, followed
by strong expected further growth of 10.9% in 2022. Overall, output is estimated to have stood 10.4%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.1% expected inflation. In notable contrast to the majority of the global
economy, estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 only slightly exceeded the previous
decade's average of 3.5%.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 64.9% in 2022, down from 72.9% the
previous year.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Seychelles, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 4.4% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating slightly to an average of 3.9% between 2028 and 2037.
Nevertheless, between 2022 and 2037 Seychelles is forecast to move from 172nd place to 169th
place in the World Economic League Table, a three-place improvement in the rankings.
Seychelles
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-42%
-34%
-15%
-10%
-
5%
24%
50%
81%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.1
2.9
3.9
5.1
Rank
172
177
173
176
172
170
170
168
169
191
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sierra Leone
Classified as a low-income country, Sierra Leone had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$1,972 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 2.0% in 2020, the economy grew by 4.1% in 2021 and
an estimated further 2.4% in 2022, bringing output 4.5% above 2019 levels.
Moderate output growth for the economy was paired with rampant inflation, with consumer price
levels expected to have surged by 25.9% in 2022. By comparison, only 12 other countries worldwide
are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 far exceeded the previous decade's average of an already high 10.9%.
Government debt is a concern for the economy, with the already troubling state of the public finances
worsening somewhat in recent months. In 2022, public sector debt as a share of GDP rose to an
estimated 81.8%, up from 79.3% in 2021. In 2022, the fiscal deficit stood at 3.8% of GDP. Government
spending likely played an important role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022. However, the
combination of high government debt and a large deficit paint a worrying picture for the country's
fiscal stability in the coming years.
The performance of the private sector in Sierra Leone is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 163rd in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, down from 153rd in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will increase to an average of 4.4% between 2023
and 2027, before slowing marginally to an average of 4.3% per year between 2028 and 2037.
Overall, over the next 15 years Cebr forecasts that Sierra Leone will see a modest improvement in its
ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 157th place in 2022 to 155th place in 2037.
Sierra Leone
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-43%
-21%
-12%
-2%
-
3%
24%
53%
89%
Current price GDP, USD bn
2.2
3.8
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
6.7
9.1
12.3
Rank
160
159
158
157
157
161
157
155
155
192
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Singapore
Singapore is a high-income country with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $131,426 in
2022. Despite its lack of natural resources, it has managed to leverage its strategic location to
establish itself as a key trade partner and become one of the world’s most competitive economies.
Furthermore, the government has made substantial efforts over the years to ensure an attractive
business climate and a highly productive workforce. This is reflected in the country’s second place
ranking in the World Bank’s 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index.
After suffering a 4.1% GDP contraction in 2020 due to pandemic-related effects, growth of 7.6% was
seen in 2021. This came despite a relatively slower reopening for the Singaporean economy,
compared to other advanced economies. Policy responses prioritising the strength and flexibility of
its workforce, including the Jobs Support Scheme, along with robust economic fundamentals, have
helped minimise economic scarring. As such, further growth of 3.0% is expected to have been seen in
2022, leaving output 6.3% above 2019 levels.
Nonetheless, downside risks to Singapore’s growth prospects linger. The fallout from the war in
Ukraine has contributed to a rapid increase in consumer prices, with 5.5% inflation expected in 2022.
As such, estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of
1.1%. Moreover, a global downturn is likely to feed into weaker demand from major trading partners,
including the country’s main trading partner, China.
On the upside, the unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to 2.1% in 2022, providing a
boost to consumer spending. Moreover, Singapore could gain from the ongoing exodus of people
and business from Hong Kong as the premier Asian financial service hub. In addition, the continuing
growth which we are forecasting for Indonesia should also have a positive spin off for Singapore.
The public finances are in a precarious position, with a government debt to GDP ratio of 141.1% in
2022, a likely outcome of the support schemes provided during the pandemic and as part of its cost-
of-living support plans. This, however, is expected to normalise in the coming years, thanks in part to
higher tax receipts (the government has announced plans to hike the good and services tax in 2023
and 2024). Sustained surpluses in the coming years, particularly if coupled with robust rates of
economic growth, would enable the public debt ratio to be brought gradually down. Over the next
five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 2.3%. Between 2028 and
2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 2.4% per year.
Between 2022 and 2037, Singapore is forecast to move from 35th place to 39th place in the World
Economic League Table, a four-place fall in the rankings.
Singapore
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-43%
-26%
-10%
-3%
-
2%
12%
27%
43%
Current price GDP, USD bn
181
295
343
397
421
437
565
702
869
Rank
43
36
34
38
35
34
39
38
39
193
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Slovak Republic
Slovak Republic is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $38,620 as of 2022.
The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 4.4% in 2020. Nonetheless, the economy
experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 3.0%, followed by expected further growth
of 1.8% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 0.3% above 2019 levels in 2022.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 11.9%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the
previous decade's average of 1.6%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is forecast to have fallen by 0.6 percentage points to 6.2%. The
tightness of the labour market will enable some resilience in household expenditure in the coming
months. Government debt as a share of GDP is moving in the right direction, edging down to an
estimated 60.5% in 2022, from 63.1% in 2021.
The performance of the economy is supported by a business environment that fosters private sector
activity. In 2020, Slovak Republic ranked 45th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This
compared to a ranking of 34th in 2016.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will rise to an average of
2.8%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to accelerate further
to an average of 2.8% per year. Between 2022 and 2037, Slovak Republic is forecast to move from
67th place to 64th place in the World Economic League Table, a three-place improvement in the
rankings.
Slovak Republic
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-26%
-18%
-6%
-2%
-
1%
15%
32%
51%
Current price GDP, USD bn
77
94
95
115
112
123
160
205
262
Rank
61
63
64
61
67
63
63
64
64
194
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Slovenia
Slovenia is a high-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $49,968 as of 2022. After
suffering from a GDP contraction of 4.3% in 2020, growth of 8.2% was seen in 2021. Further growth
of 5.7% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 9.4% above 2019 levels.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 8.9% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 1.1%.
The economy has been buoyed by a tight labour market, with the share of the labour force not in
work falling by an expected 0.5 percentage points to 4.3% in 2022. The high number of people in
employment is a key strength for the economy, ensuring that consumer spending can be supported
in the short to medium term. Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 69.5% in 2022,
down from 74.4% the previous year.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by Slovenia, a government policy document has
referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
The performance of the private sector in Slovenia is bolstered by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 37th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 35th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and
2027, before marginally picking up to an average of 3.0% for the decade to 2037. In the coming 15
years, Slovenia is expected to gradually move up in the World Economic League Table, from 87th
position in 2022 to 83rd place in 2037.
Slovenia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-21%
-25%
-15%
-5%
-
2%
14%
32%
53%
Current price GDP, USD bn
48
47
49
62
62
65
86
112
147
Rank
70
84
87
85
87
86
85
84
83
195
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Solomon Islands
The Solomon Islands is a lower-middle-income country with a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,336
as of 2022. After contracting by 3.4% in 2020, the economy shrank by a further 0.2% and an
expected 4.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These contractions left output 7.9% below 2019 levels.
Although GDP fell back in 2022, inflation is thought to have stood at a moderate 3.7%. This will spare
the economy from the signature pressure to contract policy seen in other countries. The estimated
growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 2.5%.
Despite an increase in government debt as a share of GDP to an estimated 19.2% in 2022, the public
finances remain in a relatively strong position. In 2021, public sector debt stood at 16.5% of GDP. The
government operated a relatively high fiscal deficit in 2022, at of an estimated 6.2%, facilitated in
part by the low debt to GDP ratio. This will have acted to bolster the economy in the past months.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020, the
Solomon Islands ranked 136th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a
ranking of 124th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 2.8% between 2023
and 2027, before picking up further to an average of 3.0% between 2028 and 2037. Over the next 15
years, Cebr forecasts that the Solomon Islands will retain its World Economic League Table ranking
of 176th.
Solomon Islands
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-31%
-12%
4%
5%
-
3%
15%
33%
54%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.5
Rank
180
175
176
174
176
174
176
175
176
196
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Somalia
Classified as a low-income country, Somalia had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $1,322
in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 0.3% in 2020, the economy grew by 2.9% in 2021 and an
estimated 1.9% in 2022, bringing output 4.6% above 2019 levels.
Despite modest output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 9.0%. The economy
therefore faces a potential stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises.
The performance of the private sector in Somalia is impaired by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is relatively unfriendly to business. In 2020, the country ranked 190th in the World
Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 190th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 3.8% between 2023
and 2027, before picking up further to an average of 4.1% between 2028 and 2037. This growth
trajectory will see Somalia climb from 149th place in the World Economic League Table in 2022 to
141st by 2037, a gain of eight places.
Somalia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
n/a
-26%
-10%
-2%
-
3%
20%
47%
80%
Current price GDP, USD bn
n/a
4
6
8
8
9
10
19
30
Rank
n/a
158
151
150
149
149
150
147
141
197
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
South Africa
South Africa is an upper-middle-income country and is broadly recognised as the most industrialised
in Africa. The country has a strong supply of natural resources and has relatively well-developed
financial, energy and transport sectors. At an expected $15,556 in 2022, South Africa’s PPP adjusted
GDP per capita is the second largest within Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria.
The South African economy struggled through the Covid-19 pandemic, which induced a 6.3%
contraction in 2020. This was followed by 4.9% growth in 2021, though the full potential of this
rebound was held back by repeated rounds of pandemic-related restrictions.
Unemployment has been rising since 2019 and is estimated to have increased to 34.6% in 2022. In Q1
2022, 63.9% and 42.1% of 15-24 and 25-34-year-olds were unemployed, respectively. This high
concentration of youth unemployment worsens inequality and creates additional barriers to long-
term growth. For 2022, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.1%, meaning output is projected to have
stood at 0.3% above 2019 levels in 2022.
The South African economy is exposed to the same global challenges facing many countries across
the globe, chiefly driven by soaring inflation. Inflation stood at an expected 6.7% in 2022, marking a
13-year high, and policymakers are challenged with balancing the need to spend to support growth
and employment, while not adding to inflationary pressure. Indeed, the South African Reserve Bank
raised its benchmark repurchase rate to 7% in November 2022 and this will weigh on near-term
activity by raising the cost of borrowing and disincentivising spending.
South Africa is recognised as a large automotive hub for the region of Africa, both in the production
and sale of new vehicles. The automotive industry contributes significantly to the economy by
attracting foreign investment and providing jobs. Prior to the pandemic, the government outlined a
strategy aimed at supercharging the automotive sector and a project such as this would help to
alleviate systemic issues of unemployment and low growth.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to 68.0% in 2022, down from 69.0% in the previous year,
partly due to the rise in commodity prices, thanks to South Africa’s status as a net exporter of
minerals. However, this extra revenue is expected to be relatively short-lived and fiscal sustainability
will need to be addressed in the medium term. South Africa’s annual growth rate of GDP is expected
to average 1.3% between 2023 and 2027. This weaker performance will see South Africa drop down
the World Economic League Table next year. In the absence of meaningful reforms, slowing global
growth and high inequality mean Cebr expects South Africa to fall six places in the League Tables,
reaching 42nd place by 2032.
South Africa
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-17%
-9%
-2%
-2%
-
1%
7%
14%
23%
Current price GDP, USD bn
333
434
381
419
404
392
525
619
729
Rank
28
28
31
35
36
38
41
42
42
198
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
South Sudan
Classified as a low-income country, South Sudan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$934 in 2022. Following a GDP contraction of 6.5% in 2020, the economy grew by 5.3% in 2021 and
an anticipated 6.5% in 2022, which would bring output 4.9% above 2019 levels.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices, with inflation
estimated to have stood at 17.6% across the year. The 2022 figure should be contextualised,
however, as estimated inflation last year was well below the previous decade's lofty average of
82.2%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is, however, thought to have fallen back to 52.3% in 2022, down
from 64.7% the previous year.
South Sudan came 185th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings, suggesting that
the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector. In 2016, the country's ranking
was 186th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 4.7%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 4.4% per
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that South Sudan will see a modest improvement in its
ranking in the World Economic League Table, rising from 154th place in 2022 to 151st place in 2037.
South Sudan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
n/a
-9%
-3%
-6%
-
6%
26%
57%
94%
Current price GDP, USD bn
n/a
11
3
5
5
6
9
12
17
Rank
n/a
134
160
153
154
154
152
151
151
199
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Spain
In 2022, Spain was classified as a high-income country with an estimated PPP-adjusted GDP per
capita of $46,551. In 2020, the country suffered a significant GDP contraction of 10.8%. This was
followed by expansions of 5.1% and 3.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Despite this, output
remained 2.6% below 2019 levels at the end of 2022, and the economy is only expected to reach pre-
Covid levels in 2024.
While GDP grew robustly in 2022, inflation was also high at 8.8%. Like for many of its neighbouring
countries, such as Portugal and Italy, this was driven in large part by an energy price shock following
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Spain’s government has attempted to minimise the impacts of the
energy crisis on its citizens by, among other things, reducing VAT on energy bills as well as by
presenting emergency support packages to assist vulnerable households and businesses.
In 2022, the unemployment rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 12.7%, which is the lowest it
has been since before the Great Recession. The high share of the labour force out of work since then
has weighed heavily on consumer spending and economic growth over the past decade, hence this
strengthening of the labour market is encouraging for the economy going forward, although it will be
difficult to maintain in the immediate future amid softening growth and global headwinds. Despite a
high fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP which is expected to have been seen in 2022, Spain also made
progress in improving its fiscal position in 2022 with government debt as a share of GDP falling to
113.6%, down from 118.6% in 2021.
Spain has set a commitment in law to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
The private sector in Spain is supported by a regulatory and institutional environment conducive to
business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 30th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index,
compared to 32nd in 2016.
According to Cebr forecasts, the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of 1.7% between
2023 and 2027. Over the rest of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further
to an average of 1.5% per year. In the coming 15 years, Spain is expected to retain its 2022 World
Economic League Table position of 16th.
Spain
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-5%
-11%
-2%
-4%
-
1%
9%
17%
26%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1,474
1,326
1,312
1,426
1,376
1,417
1,723
2,038
2,409
Rank
8
13
14
15
16
16
15
16
16
200
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sri Lanka
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Sri Lanka had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $14,230 in 2022. The country saw its GDP shrink by 3.5% in 2020. Having returned to
economic growth in 2021, at 3.3%, output is expected to have again shrunk in 2022, by 8.7%.
Accordingly, GDP is expected to have sat 8.9% below 2019 levels. Looking ahead, amidst intense
political and social turmoil, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is not expected in the next five
years.
A contraction in output in 2022 was accompanied by surging consumer price levels, with annual
inflation of 48.2% expected in 2022. Only four countries globally are expected to have attained
higher annual inflation rates over the same period. Estimated inflation in 2022 was also high relative
to the previous decade's average of 4.9%.
Despite a sharp economic contraction in 2022, the labour market remains in decent shape. This is
despite the unemployment rate having increased by 0.1 percentage points to stand at 5.2%.
Government debt as a share of GDP reached 130.5% in 2022. This is above the already high 103.1%
registered the previous year. A high fiscal deficit of 9.8% of GDP is expected to have been seen in
2022. Fiscal consolidation will eventually be necessary to ensure that debt levels do not destabilise
the economy.
Whilst a legal commitment has not yet been set by Sri Lanka, an ambition to achieve carbon
neutrality by 2060 has been mentioned in a government policy document.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 0.4% per
year. Moreover, between 2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will
increase further to 3.1% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Sri Lanka will retain its
World Economic League Table ranking of 75th.
Sri Lanka
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-40%
-17%
8%
10%
-
-3%
2%
19%
39%
Current price GDP, USD bn
38
70
94
89
73
73
104
134
172
Rank
79
67
65
67
75
80
75
75
75
201
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
St. Kitts and Nevis
As of 2022, St. Kitts and Nevis is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $27,782 and is
classified as a high-income country. The economy saw contractions of 14.0% and 3.6% in 2020 and
2021, respectively. This was followed by an expected rebound of 9.8% in 2022, bringing output 8.9%
below 2019 levels. A catch-up to 2019 levels is expected in 2025.
Unlike many other economies grappling with high inflation, the country managed to keep consumer
price growth at a moderate level, at an expected 3.8% in 2022, while also seeing strong output
growth. Estimated inflation in 2022 was, however, high relative to the previous decade's average of
0.2%.
Government debt as a share of GDP fell to an estimated 56.5% in 2022, down from 63.4% the
previous year.
Although a legal commitment has not yet been set by St. Kitts and Nevis, a government policy
document has referred to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Over the four years to 2020, St. Kitts and Nevis became less competitive in terms of its regulatory
environment, with the country falling to 139th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business
Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 120th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 3.4%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 2.7% per
year. Cebr forecasts show the World Economic League Table ranking of St. Kitts and Nevis
unchanged over the next 15 years, at 179th.
St. Kitts and Nevis
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-22%
-15%
2%
-9%
-
5%
18%
35%
55%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.5
Rank
179
180
181
179
179
179
179
179
179
202
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
St. Lucia
As of 2022, St. Lucia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $16,417 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. A contraction in GDP of 24.4% in 2020 was followed by expansions
of 12.2% and an expected 9.1% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This would leave output 7.4% below
2019 levels. The economy is instead expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2024.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with a strong increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 6.4% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policies may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.9%.
Standing at an estimated 90.1% of GDP in 2022, the country's level of government debt is high.
However, the public finances are moving in the right direction, with the debt to GDP ratio in 2022
down from 92.2% in 2021. The issue of public sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that is
estimated to have stood at 5.8% in 2022. The pandemic period and more recent cost-of-living crisis
are expected to have increased deficit spending in many economies worldwide.
The performance of the private sector in St. Lucia has been inhibited by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is losing ground to other countries in terms of competitiveness. In 2020, the
country ranked 93rd in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 76th in 2016.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 3.0%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 1.5% per
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that St. Lucia will see a slight worsening of its position in
the World Economic League Table, dropping from 171st place in 2022 to 172nd place in 2037.
St. Lucia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-8%
0%
6%
-8%
-
6%
16%
24%
34%
Current price GDP, USD bn
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.8
3.3
4.0
Rank
168
172
169
173
171
169
172
173
172
203
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is an upper-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted
GDP per capita of $15,786 as of 2022. After the economy shrank by 5.3% in 2020, growth of 0.5%
was achieved in 2021. This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 5.0%, leaving output
0.1% below 2019 levels. Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 5.8% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have fallen to 87.9% in 2022, down from 88.4% in
2021, which is a positive development in a time of worsening public finances in many countries. On
the other hand, the government has a fiscal deficit that is estimated to have stood at 8.6% in 2022.
This is similar to many other countries worldwide, where the pandemic period and, more recently, the
cost-of-living crisis are expected to have increased deficit spending.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines came 130th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index,
which suggests that the country's regulatory environment fell behind other countries in terms of its
conduciveness to business. In 2016, the country's ranking was 111th.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will fall to an average of
3.9%. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is anticipated to slow further to
an average of 2.7% per year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that St. Vincent and the
Grenadines is expected to see a minor improvement in its ranking in the World Economic League
Table, rising from 181st place in 2022 to 180th place in 2037.
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-10%
-14%
-3%
-5%
-
6%
21%
39%
58%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.2
Rank
178
184
184
181
181
180
180
180
180
204
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sudan
Classified as a low-income country, Sudan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $4,450
in 2022. Following a fall in output of 3.6% in 2020, the country saw a rebound by 0.5% in 2021. This
was short-lived, however, as the country saw another downtick, estimated at 0.3%, in 2022.
Resultantly, on an annual basis, output in 2022 is expected to have stood 3.4% below 2019 levels,
with pre-crisis levels not expected to be regained until 2024.
Alongside falling GDP in 2022, the country saw a staggeringly high rate of inflation, at an expected
154.9%. Only one other country – Zimbabwe – is expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over
the year. While the previous decade also saw a tendency for hyperinflation, with annual inflation
averaging 81.3%, the estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 was almost double this level.
In 2022, the unemployment rate increased by an anticipated 2.3 percentage points to reach a
significantly high 30.6%. The large share of the labour force that is not in work has been one of the
factors weighing on consumer spending and therefore economic growth over recent years.
Moreover, government debt as a share of GDP reached an estimated 189.5% in 2022, above the
already high 182.0% registered the previous year. Efforts have been made to address the issue of
public sector debt, however, with the fiscal deficit standing at a relatively low estimated 2.2% of GDP
in 2022.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020, Sudan
ranked 171st in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared to a ranking of 159th in
2016.
Looking ahead, the annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to increase to an average of 5.5% between
2023 and 2027. Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand at an
even faster rate of 6.0% on average each year. This growth trajectory will see Sudan climb from 95th
place in the World Economic League Table in 2022 to 90th by 2037, a gain of five places.
Sudan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
9%
-8%
9%
0%
-
3%
31%
74%
133%
Current price GDP, USD bn
59
49
49
35
43
33
53
79
115
Rank
66
81
86
100
95
103
101
94
90
205
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Suriname
As of 2022, Suriname is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $17,350 and is classified
as an upper-middle-income country. The economy saw contractions of 15.9% and 3.5% in 2020 and
2021, respectively. This was followed by an expected minor rebound of 1.3% in 2022, bringing output
17.8% below 2019 levels, with a catch-up to 2019 levels not expected in the next five years.
Sluggish output growth for the economy has been paired with rampant inflation, with consumer price
levels expected to have surged by 47.6% in 2022. In comparison, just five other countries in the world
are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. The estimated growth in consumer
prices over 2022 also exceeded the previous decade's average of 20.0%.
In 2022, the unemployment rate is thought to have fallen by 0.3 percentage points to 10.9%. The
economy, however, has a high level of public sector debt. The public finances deteriorated further in
2022, with debt as a share of GDP expected to have risen to 134.0%, up from 125.7% in 2021. In 2022,
the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 3.7% of GDP. Government spending likely played an important
role in increasing demand in the economy in 2022. However, the combination of high government
debt and a large deficit raise concerns about the country's fiscal stability in the coming years.
The regulatory environment in Suriname is less competitive than that of many of its peers. The
country ranked in 162nd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its
ranking was 154th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will climb to an average of 2.9% between 2023
and 2027, before accelerating slightly to an average of 3.0% between 2028 and 2037. Between 2022
and 2037, Cebr expects the World Economic League Table position of Suriname to remain stable at
162nd.
Suriname
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-3%
19%
15%
-1%
-
2%
15%
33%
55%
Current price GDP, USD bn
3.1
5.3
3.6
2.9
3.3
3.1
4.8
6.1
7.7
Rank
156
151
159
162
162
162
161
161
162
206
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Sweden
Sweden is a small, open, high-income country situated in northern Europe. As well as a large service
sector, the economy has a strong export component and is therefore closely tied to economic
developments in the wider Europe region and across the world. Sweden has a strong welfare state
with low levels of economic inequality and despite being a member of the European Union (EU) has
chosen not to adopt the Euro as a currency, partly to protect its own welfare system. As of 2022, the
country is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $63,877.
Sweden’s economy contracted by 2.2% in 2020, which was less than the EU average and was partly
due to the Swedish Government’s less heavy-handed approach to pandemic restrictions. Sweden’s
economy grew by 5.1% in 2021, supported by the country’s role as an exporter of key goods such as
timber, iron, and steel, as well as the resumption of contact-intensive services during the latter part of
the year.
For 2022, Cebr expects GDP to have risen by 2.6% but this growth was concentrated in the first half
of the year. Late 2022 was marred by the impacts of high inflation and rising interest rates on
household and business activity. Inflation for 2022 is expected to have averaged 7.2%, well above the
Riksbank’s target of around 2%. Indeed, the Executive Board of the Riksbank raised its policy rate
from 0.0% at the start of the year to 2.5% by December 2022. All else equal, higher interest rates will
weigh on economic activity by driving up the cost of borrowing and discouraging spending. This will
dent economic prospects for 2023.
Government debt is in relatively good shape, decreasing from 36.8% in 2021 to 33.5% of GDP in
2022. This leaves fiscal space for authorities to deal with present issues, though higher interest rates
will make debt more costly. Any fiscal support must balance supporting households during a cost-of-
living crisis, while not working against the Riksbank’s target to bring down inflation. Moreover, with
exports a sizeable chunk of the Swedish economy, a slowing global economy will impact GDP
growth.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 1.6% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.0% on average each
year. This growth trajectory will see Sweden fall from 25th place in the World Economic League
Table in 2022 to 29th in the global rankings by 2037, a decline of four places.
Sweden
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-22%
-20%
-9%
-3%
-
0%
8%
20%
32%
Current price GDP, USD bn
491
552
541
636
589
585
772
935
1,133
Rank
18
22
23
24
25
25
25
26
29
207
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Switzerland
The Swiss Confederation is a high-income country, with an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$78,112 in 2021. As was the case for most countries, Swiss GDP took a hit during the COVID-19
pandemic, contracting by 2.5% in 2020. However, output bounced back in 2021, increasing by 3.7%.
Consequently, GDP in the alpine republic stands 1.1% above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Switzerland is a small, landlocked country located in the heart of Europe. It is bordered by France,
Germany, Italy, Austria and Liechtenstein. Living standards in Switzerland are high, with a PPP
adjusted per capita GDP of $84,469 expected for 2022. Only four other countries worldwide –
Ireland, Luxembourg, Qatar, and Singapore – rank higher on this measure.
Switzerland’s highly developed banking sector, low taxes, and strong emphasis on private enterprise
help it to punch above its own weight in the global economy. Following a moderate GDP contraction
of 2.5% in 2020, the economy grew in both 2021 and 2022, by 4.2% and 2.2%, respectively. This
brought output 3.8% above 2019 levels in the latter year. This growth performance has come
alongside a tightening of the Swiss labour market, with late 2022 seeing the lowest unemployment
reading in more than two decades. Meanwhile, government debt stood at a manageable 40.3% of
GDP in 2022, down from 42.1% the previous year.
The Swiss franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland and it is one of the strongest currencies in
the world, partly in light of the country’s reputation as a safe haven for investment. By dampening the
cost of imports, the strength of the currency has helped to prevent inflation of the magnitudes seen in
other major economies in 2022. The country’s near self-sufficiency in energy production, low
dependence on fossil fuels, broadscale price regulations, and relatively low exposure to global food
prices have also reduced the exposure of consumers to soaring global energy prices.
Looking ahead, consumer price inflation is set to average 2.4% across 2023, before falling to within
the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) less than 2.0% target in 2024. This comes as September 2022 saw
the SNB increasing its core policy rate above zero for the first time since December 2014, with a
further hike in December taking the rate to 1.0%. However, with inflation low by international
comparison, monetary policy in the country is able to remain more accommodative than in many
other economies worldwide.
Switzerland has a diversified manufacturing sector which accounts for roughly a fifth of GDP. This
includes pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery, luxury watches, and electronics industries which are
all highly competitive on a global scale. Despite the country’s small size, it has been able to remain
competitive by focusing on high-value industries within this space.
Switzerland
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-21%
-16%
-7%
-2%
-
1%
7%
14%
21%
Current price GDP, USD bn
491
686
695
800
800
812
1,013
1,182
1,379
Rank
19
20
19
21
22
20
20
21
24
208
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
The financial services sector also plays an important role in Switzerland’s economy, accounting for
roughly 10% of GDP and providing employment for over 200,000 people. To-date, the banking sector
has been able to remain competitive due to the country’s low taxes and strict regulations, which have
helped to protect it from financial crises. Yet, in light of anticipated international changes to corporate
taxation, the outlook for the country’s services industry remains gloomier than over previous
decades.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 1.4%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 1.2% per
year. In the coming 15 years, Switzerland is expected to slip slightly in the World Economic League
Table, from 22nd position in 2022 to 24th place in 2037.
209
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Taiwan Province of China
We use the IMF’s officially agreed nomenclature for Taiwan. The use of this nomenclature should not
be taken to imply any view about Taiwan’s status.
As of 2022, Taiwan Province of China is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $69,500
and is classified as a high-income country. Following the rare achievement of economic growth in
2020, amounting to 3.4%, the economy expanded further in 2021, by 6.6%. While growth is thought
to have continued in 2022, it is estimated to have eased to 3.3%. Taiwan is one of only two countries
(the other is Korea) to have raised its standard of living as much as 30 times in the past 70 years.
Taiwan is now one of the richest countries in the world and has an enviable reputation as a high-tech
electronic chip producer.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 3.1% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide, although the estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 0.9%.
Underpinning the robust GDP growth in 2022 has been a resilient labour market. In 2022, the
unemployment rate is thought to have fallen by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%. Government debt is
relatively low, expected to stand at around 24.1% of GDP, compared with 28.4% in 2021. Public
spending is under control, with an anticipated fiscal deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2022. This - together
with the low level of government debt - provides space for expansionary fiscal policy to support
growth and mitigate against various headwinds in the coming years. The performance of the
economy is supported by a business environment that fosters private sector activity. In 2020, Taiwan
Province of China ranked 15th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. In spite of its high
ranking, Taiwan has seen a relative deterioration over the years, however, after ranking tenth in 2016.
Overshadowing Taiwan’s economic performance is the Chinese desire to reunify the country, if
necessary, by force. We have assumed that this will be achieved over time by peaceful means but if
there is an attempt to achieve this by force (as the Russians have attempted with Ukraine) this will
have a major impact on the economy. Even without an invasion, we expect the shadow of China’s
attempt to take over the country will hold back growth.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 1.9% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.7% on average each
year. Consequently, Cebr forecasts that Taiwan Province of China will see a slight worsening of its
position in the World Economic League Table, dropping from 21st place in 2022 to 23rd place in
2037.
Taiwan Province of China
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-38%
-28%
-17%
-3%
-
2%
10%
20%
30%
Current price GDP, USD bn
407
496
591
775
810
794
966
1,156
1,382
Rank
24
26
22
22
21
21
22
22
23
210
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Tajikistan
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Tajikistan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $4,803 in 2022. Following the rare achievement of economic growth in 2020, amounting to
4.4%, the economy expanded further in 2021, by 9.2%. Growth is then thought to have slowed
slightly, to 5.5%, in 2022.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 8.2%. This
exceeds the previous decade's average of 6.5% and stands outside of the central bank’s 6 (± 2) %
target. Demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-
term.
The public finances remain in good nick, with government debt as a share of GDP declining to an
estimated 39.4% in 2022, down from 44.4% in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic and cost-of-living crisis
have brought with them major challenges for the economy and public finances globally. However,
domestically, public sector borrowing as a share of GDP is thought to have stood at just 2.5% in
2022.
The performance of the private sector in Tajikistan has been improved by a regulatory and
institutional environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country
ranked 106th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 136th in 2016.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 4.0% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 4.0% between 2028 and 2037. This growth
trajectory will see Tajikistan climb from 146th place in the World Economic League Table in 2022 to
144th by 2037, a gain of two places.
Tajikistan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-63%
-48%
-28%
-5%
-
4%
22%
48%
79%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
8
8
9
10
10
15
20
27
Rank
151
146
147
146
146
146
144
143
144
211
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Tanzania
As of 2022, Tanzania is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,374 and is classified as
a lower-middle-income country. Following the rare achievement of economic growth in 2020,
amounting to 4.8%, the economy expanded further in 2021, by 4.9%. While growth is thought to have
continued in 2022, it is thought to have slowed to an estimated 4.5%.
The country achieved a favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with above average GDP
performance alongside 4.0% expected inflation. This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in
inflation seen in many economies worldwide. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022
also stood below the previous decade's average of 6.0%.
Government debt is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 39.5% of GDP in 2022,
compared to 40.7% in 2021. A manageable low debt burden provided the government with the fiscal
headroom to operate an expected budget deficit of 3.1% in 2022. This deficit spending has likely been
important in bolstering demand in the economy.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an
average of 5.9%. Over the following decade, economic growth is then expected to decelerate slightly
to an average of 5.0% per year. In the coming 15 years, Tanzania is expected to gradually move up in
the World Economic League Table, from 73rd position in 2022 to 67th place in 2037.
Tanzania
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-59%
-45%
-24%
-4%
-
5%
33%
70%
117%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
40
53
70
76
84
118
165
232
Rank
94
91
82
74
73
73
70
69
67
212
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Thailand
Thailand is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $21,114 in 2022. Its classification as an
upper middle-income country is an outcome of strong growth rates over the last few decades. Its
export-led growth model, along with radical structural transformation, enabled it to become a
development success story, combining strong growth rates with marked poverty reduction. On the
latter, poverty has reduced from 67% in 1986 to 6.2% in 2019. This development has unfortunately
stalled in recent years, not least due to the adverse effects of the pandemic, with output contracting
by 6.2% in 2020, and the scale of poverty having risen slightly to 6.4% in 2020 and 6.3% in 2021.
Nonetheless, Thailand has seen some resurgence in economic activity, with an expansion of 1.5%
seen in 2021. This is set to be followed by a 2.8% rise in GDP in 2022, leaving output 2.1% below 2019
levels. The economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
Despite moderate output performance in 2022, inflation is expected to have risen to 6.3% in 2022.
This has raised a trade-off between growth and price rises. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high
relative to the previous decade's average of 0.9%. Thailand’s central bank has resorted to raising its
main interest rates in a bid to curb the headline rate of inflation. This has placed upwards pressure on
the Thai baht, which would in turn would weigh heavily on its exports. Other headwinds to Thai
exports include developments in China, which has will affect trade, and erratic weather conditions,
which affects Thai agricultural output.
Despite relatively poor output performance more broadly, the labour market remains strong. Indeed,
the unemployment rate is estimated to have declined by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0% in 2022.
Thailand’s unemployment rate is low but this hides a significant share of the population working in
subsistence low income agriculture or in other badly paid and vulnerable sectors of employment. In
addition, Thailand’s shadow economy poses a key challenge for the country - the size of its shadow
economy estimated to amount to 46.2% of GDP. Work needs to be done in advancing institutional
change to enable the transition to formal employment, and not doing so could curtail any further
progress the country could make on development.
We expect the annual rate of GDP growth in Thailand to stand at an average of 3.4% over the next
five years. However, between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts this to ease slightly to 3.0% per year.
Between 2022 and 2037, Thailand is forecast to move from 31st place to 25th place in the World
Economic League Table.
Thailand
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-29%
-17%
-4%
-3%
-
4%
18%
37%
59%
Current price GDP, USD bn
263
398
457
506
492
498
794
1,014
1,294
Rank
33
31
27
26
31
30
24
25
25
213
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$3,904 as of 2022. A contraction in GDP of 8.6% in 2020 was followed by expansions of 1.5% and an
estimated 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This left output 4.1% below 2019 levels, with a catch
up to pre-crisis levels expected in 2024.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw accelerating consumer
prices, with 7.0% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 is
more than double the previous decade's average of 2.8%.
Government debt as a share of GDP rose to an expected 11.2% in 2022, up from 10.0% in 2021.
Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 41.5% of GDP in 2022. While this represents a
relatively high level of government borrowing, the low level of public sector debt means that, in the
short term at least, there is the fiscal space to justify this approach. This is particularly the case
considering the greater role for government intervention seen in recent years.
The regulatory environment in Timor-Leste is less competitive than that of many of its peers. The
country ranked in 181st place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, its
ranking was 177th.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.9% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent ten years, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 3.0% on average
each year. By 2037, Timor-Leste is forecast to retain its 2022 World Economic League Table position
of 167
th
, despite some initial downward movement in light of a depreciating currency.
Timor-Leste
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-38%
-7%
3%
-3%
-
4%
15%
34%
55%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.5
1.2
1.6
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.9
3.8
5.3
Rank
182
176
172
167
167
172
171
170
167
214
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Togo
As of 2022, Togo is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,619 and is classified as a
low-income country. The economy is expected to have seen output growth in all three years from
2020 to 2022, with growth amounting to 1.8%, 5.3%, and an estimated 5.4%, respectively.
Robust output growth in 2022 was paired with accelerating consumer prices. Inflation is estimated to
have stood at 5.6% in 2022, far above the previous decade's average of 1.5%. Accordingly, demand-
side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term.
Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have climbed to 66.1% in 2022, up from 63.7% the
previous year.
The performance of the private sector in Togo has been supported by a regulatory and institutional
environment that is increasingly conducive to business activity. In 2020, the country ranked 97th in
the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, compared to 152nd in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 6.1% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.0% on average each
year. This growth trajectory is set to see Togo climb from 150th place in the World Economic League
Table in 2022 to 145th by 2037, a gain of five places.
Togo
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-54%
-39%
-20%
-5%
-
6%
35%
72%
119%
Current price GDP, USD bn
4
5
6
8
8
9
14
19
27
Rank
154
152
150
148
150
150
146
146
145
215
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Tonga
As of 2022, Tonga is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,663 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. 2020 proved to be a relatively fruitful year for the economy, unlike
other economies grappling with Covid-19, with the economy growing by 0.5%. This was not the case
for 2021 and 2022, however, with the economy seeing contractions of 2.7% and an estimated 2.0% in
2021 and 2022, respectively. This in turn leaves output in the latter year 4.1% below 2019 levels.
Stagflationary pressures were apparent based on estimated output and inflation readings, with a
contraction in GDP expected alongside an anticipated 8.5% year-on-year increase in consumer price
levels. The latter rate was notably elevated compared to the previous decade's average inflation rate
of 2.5%. Government debt as a share of GDP is, however, estimated to have fallen to 47.4% in 2022,
down from 47.5% the previous year.
Over the four years to 2020, Tonga became less competitive in terms of its regulatory environment,
with the country falling to 103rd place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In
2016, the country's ranking was 89th.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to rise to an average of 2.4%. However,
between 2028 and 2037 Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will dip slightly to 1.8%
per year. Despite this, Cebr forecasts show the World Economic League Table ranking of Tonga
unchanged at 185
th
in 15 years’ time.
Tonga
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-16%
-9%
3%
2%
-
3%
12%
23%
35%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.0
Rank
185
186
186
185
185
185
184
185
185
216
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Trinidad and Tobago
As of 2022, Trinidad and Tobago is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $29,797 and
is classified as a high-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 7.4% in 2020, the economy
shrank further in 2021, by 0.7%. However, following this poor economic performance, output is
forecast to have returned to growth in 2022, at 4.0%. Output is therefore expected to have remained
4.3% below 2019 levels in 2022, with a catch-up to pre-pandemic levels expected in 2024.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 5.0% inflation expected in 2022. The estimated growth in consumer prices
over 2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 3.4%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is estimated to have fallen to 54.7% in 2022, down from 60.6%
the previous year.
The business environment has deteriorated relative to other countries in recent years. In 2020,
Trinidad and Tobago ranked 105th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. This compared
to a ranking of 87th in 2016.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.5% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.6% on average each
year. Over the next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Trinidad and Tobago will fall significantly in the
World Economic League Table rankings, from 105th position in 2022 to 124th in 2037.
Trinidad and Tobago
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
11%
12%
5%
-4%
-
3%
13%
22%
33%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
26
23
24
29
30
33
39
46
Rank
93
102
107
110
105
107
112
122
124
217
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Tunisia
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Tunisia had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $12,490 in 2022. After the economy shrank by 8.7% in 2020, growth of 3.3% was achieved in 2021.
This was followed by an estimated 2022 expansion by 2.2%, leaving output 3.6% below 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, a GDP catch-up to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2024.
While the economy grew moderately in 2022, consumer prices grew at a disproportionately faster
rate over the same period, at an anticipated 8.1%. This poses the risk of a stagflationary trade-off
between growth and price rises. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 also exceeded
the previous decade's average of 5.3%.
Public sector debt is high and threatens to constrain growth in the medium-to-long term. In 2022,
government debt as a share of GDP is expected to have climbed to 88.8%, even higher than the
81.8% recorded in 2021. The issue of public sector debt is compounded by a fiscal deficit that is
estimated to have stood at 6.6% in 2022. The pandemic period and more recent cost-of-living crisis
have increased deficit spending in many economies worldwide.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to accelerate to an average of 2.3% per
year. The average rate of GDP growth is then expected to increase further to 2.6% per year over the
subsequent decade. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Tunisia in the World
Economic League Table will deteriorate, with its ranking dipping from 90th to 103rd by 2037. This
would represent a 13-place fall in the rankings.
Tunisia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-20%
-9%
0%
-2%
-
2%
12%
27%
45%
Current price GDP, USD bn
41
47
42
47
47
48
57
71
89
Rank
76
82
91
89
90
91
97
101
103
218
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Türkiye
As of 2022, Türkiye is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $38,759 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. The economy was an outlier in 2020, growing by 1.9% in spite of
the pandemic. This was followed by further growth of 11.4% in 2021. Nonetheless, the bleak economic
climate has weighed heavily on the economy in 2022, with growth estimated to have slowed to 4.6%.
While growth was relatively strong in 2022, consumer price inflation is estimated to have reached
73.1%. Only two other countries globally are expected to have seen a higher inflation rate over the
year. The estimated growth in consumer prices over 2022 exceeded by many times the previous
decade's average of 11.5%. Clearly inflation will have to be stabilised and this will hold back GDP
growth in the immediate future. However, the country has the advantage of cheap labour while
retaining access to the European market.
The economy grew well in 2022 in spite of a high rate of unemployment. The share of the labour
force that is out of work is anticipated to have declined by 1.2 percentage points to 10.8% in 2022. The
public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to drop to
37.5% in 2022, down from 41.8% in 2021. Meanwhile, the government's fiscal deficit is forecast to
stand at 4.2% of GDP in 2022. The government's borrowing position is sustainable in the short to
medium term given the low debt to GDP ratio, although measures may need to be taken further
down the road to rein in the deficit.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Türkiye, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2053 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 2.7% between 2023 and
2027, before picking up to an average of 2.9% between 2028 and 2037. This growth trajectory will
see Türkiye climb from 20th place in the World Economic League Table in 2022 to 17th by 2037, a
gain of three places.
Türkiye
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-40%
-19%
-4%
-
2%
14%
32%
52%
Current price GDP, USD bn
680
880
859
818
859
757
1,299
1,647
2,089
Rank
17
17
17
20
20
22
17
17
17
219
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Turkmenistan
Classified as an upper-middle-income country, Turkmenistan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $18,875 in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic saw the country's GDP contract by 3.0% in 2020.
Nonetheless, the economy experienced a bounce back in 2021, with a growth rate of 4.6%, followed
by expected further growth of 1.2% in 2022. Consequently, output is judged to have stood 2.7%
above 2019 levels in 2022.
Despite sluggish output performance in 2022, inflation ran hot, at an anticipated 17.5%. This has
raised a stagflationary trade-off between growth and price rises, with the estimated growth in
consumer prices over 2022 exceeding the previous decade's average of 7.8%.
Government debt is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 8.4% of GDP in 2022,
compared to 11.1% in 2021. Despite the pandemic and global inflationary pressures, public spending is
also under control, with a fiscal surplus of 0.6% of GDP expected for 2022. This - together with the
low level of government debt - permits the country some fiscal space to pursue expansionary fiscal
policy to sustain growth in the years ahead.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 2.0% between
2023 and 2027, before slowing to an average of 1.7% per year between 2028 and 2037.
Consequently, the next 15 years are set to see Turkmenistan move swiftly down the rankings of the
World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 74th in 2022 to 93rd in
2037, a sizeable 19-place fall in the rankings.
Turkmenistan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-47%
-10%
0%
-1%
-
2%
11%
20%
31%
Current price GDP, USD bn
44
50
46
62
74
81
76
91
109
Rank
74
80
89
84
74
75
87
88
93
220
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Tuvalu
As of 2022, Tuvalu is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,844 and is classified as
an upper-middle-income country. Looking at 2020, the economy managed to achieve economic
growth, unlike other economies grappling with the pandemic, of 1.0%. This was followed by further
expansions of 2.5% and an estimated 3.0% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Moderate output growth in 2022 was paired with a rampant increase in consumer prices. Inflation is
estimated to have stood at 5.7% in 2022. Accordingly, demand-side policy may be appropriate to
bring non-inflationary growth over the longer-term. The estimated growth in consumer prices over
2022 exceeded the previous decade's average of 2.5%.
The public finances are in a healthy state, with government debt as a share of GDP expected to have
fallen to 4.8% in 2022 from 6.0% in 2021. Despite the pandemic and global inflationary pressures,
public spending is also under control, with a fiscal surplus of 3.9% of GDP expected for 2022. This -
together with the low level of government debt - permits the country some fiscal space to pursue
expansionary fiscal policy to sustain growth in the years ahead.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 3.7% between
2023 and 2027, before slowing to an average of 3.5% per year between 2028 and 2037. Over the
next 15 years, Cebr forecasts that Tuvalu will retain its World Economic League Table ranking of 191st.
Tuvalu
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-37%
-35%
-20%
-3%
-
3%
20%
42%
69%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Rank
191
193
193
191
191
191
191
191
191
221
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Uganda
Uganda is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,018 as of 2022and is classified as a
low-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 1.4% in 2020, the economy grew by 6.7% in
2021 and an estimated 4.4% in 2022, bringing output 9.8% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 6.4% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated inflation in 2022 was also high
relative to the previous decade's average of 4.8%.
There is a moderate level of government debt, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio forecast to
have stood at 52.2% in 2022. This is above the 51.8% recorded in 2021.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to pick up to an average of 6.2% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.0% on average each
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Uganda is forecast to move from 91st place to 85th place in the World
Economic League Table, a six-place improvement in the rankings.
Uganda
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-55%
-37%
-20%
-4%
-
6%
35%
73%
120%
Current price GDP, USD bn
18
31
31
43
46
50
71
100
141
Rank
104
96
99
92
91
89
89
86
85
222
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Ukraine
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Ukraine had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per capita
of $14,326 in 2021. An estimate for 2022 is unavailable.
The Ukrainian economy has been devastated by conflict in 2022. Russia’s invasion in February has led
to the destruction of infrastructure and productive capacity, while also causing a significant drop in
Ukraine’s population, through both displacement and fatalities.
This time a year ago, Cebr estimated the costs borne by Ukraine as a result of conflict with Russia
between 2014 and 2021. Forgone output amounted to between $191 billion and $280 billion over this
period. At the time, the impacts were confined to select regions, notably Donbas, a large industrial
area, and Crimea, which had been annexed by Russia. Given the significant escalation of the conflict
since then, these cost estimates have now been surpassed. Indeed, it is estimated that the Ukrainian
economy contracted by 35.0% this year. This has led to a fall in its WELT ranking, reaching 60th place
in 2022, down from 54th in 2021.
In addition to a large output slump, Ukraine’s economy has also witnessed inflationary pressure. Price
growth across 2022 is expected to have reached 20.6%, with only 15 other countries seeing higher
rates this year. The conflict has contributed to shortages within the economy, which have fuelled
rising prices.
Ukraine’s growth trajectory clearly depends on the outcome of the ongoing conflict. However, even if
there is no resolution, there is scope for economic growth given the low base level of output. Growth
is expected to average 4.6% annually between 2023 and 2027, before trending at 3.6% in the years
to 2038.
Ukraine
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
72%
64%
45%
54%
-
-8%
24%
49%
77%
Current price GDP, USD bn
143
176
112
200
133
121
232
307
401
Rank
48
54
61
54
60
66
58
57
56
223
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
United Arab Emirates
As of 2022, United Arab Emirates is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $77,272 and
is classified as a high-income country. Following a GDP contraction of 4.8% in 2020, the economy
grew by 3.8% in 2021 and an estimated 5.1% in 2022, bringing output 3.8% above 2019 levels.
Despite achieving higher-than-average GDP growth, the economy also saw a rather rapid increase in
consumer prices, with 5.2% inflation expected in 2022. Estimated inflation in 2022 was high relative
to the previous decade's average of 1.1%.
Government debt is relatively low and forecast to have stood at around 30.7% of GDP in 2022,
compared to 34.7% in 2021. Despite the pandemic and global inflationary pressures, public spending
is also under control, with a fiscal surplus of 7.7% of GDP expected for 2022. This - together with the
low level of government debt - permits the country some fiscal space to pursue expansionary fiscal
policy to sustain growth in the years ahead.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law, United Arab Emirates has pledged to reach net zero emissions by
2050.
Over the four years to 2020, the United Arab Emirates has become more competitive in terms of its
regulatory environment, with the country reaching 16th place in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing
Business Index. In 2016, the country's ranking was 28th.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 3.7% between 2023 and
2027, before further decelerating to an average of 3.0% between 2028 and 2037. In the coming 15
years, United Arab Emirates is expected to gradually drift down the World Economic League Table,
from 29th position in 2022 to 33rd place in 2037.
United Arab Emirates
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-32%
-24%
-8%
-5%
-
4%
20%
39%
61%
Current price GDP, USD bn
258
375
386
420
504
531
656
836
1,065
Rank
35
32
30
34
29
28
31
32
33
224
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom ranked as the world’s sixth largest economy in 2022. In the same year, the high-
income North-Western European country is estimated by the IMF to have had a PPP-adjusted GDP
per capita of $55,862. 2023 will mark the country’s third year following its departure of the European
Union in January 2020. The country’s economy, measured in current price dollar terms, was
overtaken by that of India for the first time in 2021.
The UK showed the fastest GDP growth among G7 countries in both 2021 and 2022, with annual rates
of 7.5% and 4.4%, respectively. However, this followed a fall in output by 11.0% in 2020, marking the
weakest performance among the group. A combination of lockdown and measurement issues are
believed to have weighed on output figures for the first pandemic year, though the same
measurement issues are thought to have artificially flattered the 2021 and 2022 recovery
performance. Looking ahead, on an annual basis, our forecasts show output only catching up with
pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
The UK economic picture across 2022, as in many other economies, was dominated by inflation.
Annual price rises on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure are expected to have averaged 9.1%
across the year as a whole, with a peak monthly reading of 11.1% recorded in October, a high of over
40 years. UK inflation last stood at the Bank of England’s 2.0% target in July 2021.
In response to swiftly intensifying inflationary pressures, the Bank of England has sought to tighten
UK monetary policy significantly over the past year. In its December monetary policy decision, the
Bank announced its ninth successive interest rate, bringing the base rate to 3.5%, compared with
0.1% seen just over twelve months earlier. Alongside this rather aggressive hike in rates, the Bank has
also begun shrinking the size of its balance sheet by selling bonds back to financial markets. While
likely to help counter inflation, these policy changes are set to weigh on growth into 2023.
On the fiscal policy side, 2022 saw some of the most dramatic developments in memory. After the
departure of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose legacy in the area can be characterised by
high-tax-high-spend, the incoming Truss administration opted for a slimmed down low-tax
programme, as part of a dash for growth. The so-called Plan for Growth saw the announcement of
over £40 billion in long-term tax cuts, including the reversal of many of the former Chancellor Rishi
Sunak’s tax-hiking policies. Yet, a combination of factors, including the communication of the plans,
doubts about the efficacy of its measures, and the simultaneous announcement of a high-cost poorly
targeted energy support scheme, left many market observers doubtful of sustainability the
Government’s fiscal position.
United Kingdom
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-14%
-14%
-3%
-4%
-
-2%
5%
14%
24%
Current price GDP, USD bn
3,107
2,709
2,694
3,119
3,082
3,030
3,903
4,673
5,601
Rank
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
225
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Quickly leading to an adverse market reaction that saw bond yields reach their highest levels in at
least a decade, the plans were almost completely scrapped within one month, with a new
administration installed shortly thereafter. Under the new Sunak administration, a significant
tightening of fiscal policy has been announced for the medium term, amounting to £55 billion, in an
attempt to bring public debt as a proportion of GDP down over the longer-term. A significant portion
of this will be raised by freezing tax allowances, taking advantage of inflation and the associated
fiscal drag to boost the tax take. Meanwhile, public spending restraint is expected to raise at least
£30 billion for the public purse by 2027-28. Despite this, public sector net debt, excluding the Bank of
England, is expected to average 89.9% of GDP in 2022-23, up from 84.3% in the previous fiscal year,
and to continue to rise over the coming years, reaching a peak of 97.6% in 2026-27, before subsiding.
The country’s fiscal problem has been exacerbated by fall in the labour force. Compared with the pre-
pandemic trend, hours worked in the UK showed a shortfall of 6.9 by November 2022. Meanwhile,
public sector productivity fell by 7.1% over the three years to the end of 2022, leaving productivity
9.5% lower than it might have been had the pre-pandemic trend continued.
A higher interest rate and high-tax environment are set to weigh on the UK’s growth prospects for
much of the coming decade. Key priorities for the current and future Governments include reversing
the trends in participation and public sector productivity and finding ways to boost investment which
has been sluggish in recent years. This stands in contrast to the latest fiscal policy stance revealed in
the 2022 Autumn Statement, which is expected to disincentive entrepreneurship, productivity, and
labour market supply. In early December, the Chancellor announced what he called a major
deregulation of the financial sector. If what he is planning eventually can be implemented, it might
sustain the health of what until recently amounted to a tenth of the economy.
On climate protection, the UK has achieved much faster reductions in carbon emissions over recent
decades than any other major economy. Much of this, however, has been through deindustrialisation,
while domestic emissions have been replaced by those embedded in imported goods. The country
has set commitments in law to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and achieve a 68% reduction in
emissions from 1990 levels by 2035. Moreover, in October 2021, the Government published its Net
Zero Strategy, which for the first time set out comprehensive plans to deliver its net-zero target. It has
also committed to ban fossil fuelled car sales by 2030 and decarbonise the power sector by 2035,
both of which commitments look virtually impossible to achieve without further damage to the
economy.
The UK’s rate of GDP growth is forecast to average 1.8% over the second half of the current decade,
before slowing to 1.7% on average across the period 2030-2037. Despite having revised down our
forecasts for both growth and the exchange rate to take account of the less favourable economic
environment, Cebr expects the UK’s World Economic League Table position to remain stable at sixth
place over the next 15 years.
226
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
United States
The United States remains the world’s largest economy and one of its wealthiest, with an estimated
PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $75,180 in 2022.
To illustrate the sheer scale of the US economy, it is worth keeping in mind that just one of its 50
states, California, is sufficiently large to place fifth in the 2023 WELT rankings, if it were included in as
a country. This would place California ahead of India and the UK.
Following a GDP contraction of 3.4% in 2020, the US economy grew by 5.7% in 2021 and an
expected 1.6% in 2022, bringing output 3.7% above 2019 pre-Covid levels.
Throughout 2022, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, and the wider government bodies
attempted to engineer a so called ‘soft landing’ for the US economy. In other words, efforts were
made to bring down inflation without triggering a recession. However, while inflation is set to have
slowed in each month of the latter half of 2022, it remained high, with a rate of 8.1% excepted across
the year as a whole. Moreover, annual growth is expected to have been modest at best, with the
headline rate including two quarters of contraction.
A silver lining has been the tightness of the labour market. The unemployment rate declined by an
expected 1.7 percentage points to 3.7% in 2022, which has supported household incomes and thus
levels of spending. Cracks are beginning to show, however, in terms of the 2023 outlook, as both
private consumption and housing investment begin to waver.
Influencing the economic outlook for years to come will be the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which
covers a wide range of areas, including deficit reduction, taxation, climate policies, and healthcare.
Domestically, the hope is that the legislation will boost competitiveness, increase productivity, and
stir innovation. Some of the US’ European allies, however, have expressed concerns regarding what
they see as a protectionist set of policies. This criticism comes on the back of increasingly strong
feelings in European political circles that the cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being
disproportionately borne by Europe, despite the US’s firmly pro-Ukraine rhetoric.
We expect the United States’ share of global GDP to gradually decline in the decades ahead, and for
the country to eventually be overtaken by China as the world’s largest economy. We now expect this
to happen in 2036, six years later than in the previous edition of the WELT. This is mostly a result of a
deteriorating outlook for China, which has seen growth prospects hampered by ongoing Covid
restrictions and the emergence of anti-lockdown protests that threaten to spill over into other areas
of public discontent.
United States
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-21%
-18%
-8%
-2%
-
0%
8%
20%
33%
Current price GDP, USD bn
14,474
16,254
19,480
22,996
25,025
25,995
30,217
36,852
44,948
Rank
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
227
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Uruguay
As of 2022, Uruguay is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $27,233 and is classified
as a high-income country. After suffering from a GDP contraction of 6.1% in 2020, growth, at 4.4%,
was seen in 2021. Further growth of 5.3% is expected to have been witnessed in 2022, leaving output
3.2% above 2019 levels.
Although GDP rose relatively strongly in 2022, inflation was also high, at an expected 9.1%.
Estimated inflation in 2022 was, however, only slightly above the previous decade's average of 8.3%.
Nonetheless, demand-side policy may be appropriate to bring non-inflationary growth over the
longer-term.
Uruguay’s strong growth is poignant considering its relatively high rate of unemployment. However,
the labour market is nonetheless moving in the right direction, with the unemployment rate expected
to have fallen by 1.5 percentage points to 7.9% in 2022. Meanwhile, government debt as a share of
GDP fell to an estimated 61.2% in 2022, down from 65.1% the previous year.
Whilst not yet enshrined in law in Uruguay, an ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 has
been referred to in a government policy document.
Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to slow to an average of 2.6%. Between
2028 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the average rate of GDP growth will decline further to 2.2% per
year. Between 2022 and 2037, Cebr forecasts that the position of Uruguay in the World Economic
League Table will deteriorate, with its ranking dipping from 76th to 86th by 2037. This would
represent a ten-place fall in the rankings.
Uruguay
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-35%
-14%
-4%
-5%
-
4%
14%
27%
42%
Current price GDP, USD bn
25
56
64
59
72
80
91
111
136
Rank
88
77
73
86
76
76
82
85
86
228
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Uzbekistan
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Uzbekistan had an estimated PPP adjusted GDP per
capita of $9,478 in 2022. Uzbekistan is rich in resources, notably metals, oil, and natural gas. The
country has witnessed significant economic reform in recent years, including liberalising currency
regulations and a reduction in state participation.
Uzbekistan defied international trends in 2020, growing by 1.9%, and thus avoiding the pandemic-
induced contraction seen in many other countries. This was followed by a further expansion of 7.4%
in 2021. 2022, however saw a slowdown in growth, amounting to an anticipated 5.2%.
Uzbekistan has had a mixed experience with inflation. Uzbekistan faced hyperinflation in the 1990s
after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with rates in excess of 1,000%. A more sustainable
inflationary path was seen in the early 2000s. Market reforms in the late 2010s saw price growth
accelerate, however, reaching a near-term peak rate of 20.1% in January 2018. Across 2022, inflation
averaged an expected 11.2%.
The unemployment rate rose by an expected 0.5 percentage points to 10.0% in 2022. Government
debt is relatively low and estimated to have stood at around 34.1% of GDP in 2022, compared to
35.8% in 2021.
Uzbekistan came 69th in the World Bank's 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. Just four years earlier,
Uzbekistan had ranked 85th. This improvement reflects the changes to the country’s regulatory
environment since 2017, with Uzbekistan making significant strides forward relative to other
comparable countries.
Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth in Uzbekistan will slow to an average of 4.9%
between 2023 and 2027, before picking up to an average of 5.0% between 2028 and 2037. This
growth trajectory will see Uzbekistan climb from 72nd place in the World Economic League Table in
2022 to 69th by 2037.
Uzbekistan
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-61%
-43%
-22%
-5%
-
5%
27%
63%
108%
Current price GDP, USD bn
28
68
61
69
78
88
111
156
219
Rank
86
69
76
76
72
70
72
71
69
229
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Vanuatu
Vanuatu is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,858
as of 2022. Agriculture and tourism are amongst Vanuatu’s main industries.
After experiencing a GDP contraction of 5.4% in 2020, the economy saw 0.4% growth in 2021.
Growth in 2022 is expected to have been 1.7%. As such, output remains 3.4% below 2019 levels, with
a catch-up not expected until 2024.
Inflation in Vanuatu in 2022 is expected to have been 4.6%. Though this is low compared to many
other countries, it is twice the country’s average rate over the past ten years, which amounted to
2.3%.
Government debt as a share of GDP is at a moderate level compared to other economies in the
Pacific region. Nevertheless, this is expected to have increased in 2022, reaching 50.4%, up from
48.2% in 2021.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts Vanuatu’s annual rate of GDP growth to average 3.3%.
However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to slow to an
average of 3.0% per year. Vanuatu’s position in the World Economic Table is expected to remain
relatively constant over this period. Having placed 180th in 2022, a fall of just one place is expected
by 2037.
Vanuatu
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-27%
-16%
-3%
-2%
-
3%
18%
36%
58%
Current price GDP, USD bn
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.2
Rank
183
183
183
180
180
181
181
181
181
230
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Vietnam
Vietnam is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $13,075 in 2022. The government’s
previous experience in managing disease outbreaks, from the SARS epidemic in particular, left it well
prepared to handle the Covid-19 pandemic. The results of this can be seen in Vietnam’s growth
figures for 2020, where it was one of the few countries to expand, with growth of 2.9%. Following
this, in 2021, output grew by 2.6%, after which growth is expected to have accelerated to 7.0% in
2022.
Vietnam has benefitted from rapid economic growth through the Đổi Mới reform period since the
mid-1980’s, propelling the country from a poor country to a lower middle-income country. Much of
this growth has been fuelled by labour shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, along
with its strong tourism sector. Exports, especially that of textiles, electronics, and clothing, have
contributed significantly to Vietnam’s GDP growth, and are forecast to continue to do so. This,
however, faces mounting headwinds, at least in the near term, with a global downturn likely to affect
Vietnam’s export markets. Other potential headwinds include further commodity price shocks,
developments in China (Vietnam’s biggest trading partner), continued disruption in global supply
chains, and further appreciation of the Vietnamese dong, the latter of which will make Vietnamese
exports less attractive.
Nonetheless, the country achieved a relatively favourable growth-inflation trade-off in 2022, with
above average GDP performance alongside relatively weak inflation compared with other countries.
This stands in contrast to the sharp increase in inflation seen in many economies worldwide. Despite
this, there is still likely to be some impact from the rise in consumer prices which by October 2022
had reached a rate of 4.3%, above the 4% target set by government.
The strong output performance of the economy in 2022 went hand in hand with the robustness of the
labour market. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen by 0.3
percentage points to 2.4%. Meanwhile, government debt as a share of GDP is forecast to rise very
slightly to 40.2% in 2022, up from 39.7% the previous year.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 6.5% between 2023 and 2027.
Over the subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 5.2% on average each
year, all of which would go a long way in aiding the country in its aspiration to attain high-income
status by 2045.
Vietnam
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-58%
-44%
-23%
-7%
-
6%
37%
78%
127%
Current price GDP, USD bn
98
195
277
366
397
422
641
915
1,283
Rank
56
51
43
42
39
36
33
28
26
231
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Nonetheless, it faces key challenges on its path to becoming a high-income country. With global
trade declining and its population ageing, it needs to improve its policy implementation performance
drastically, particularly in sectors that will be severely affected by automation and climate change.
Our predicted growth path would see Vietnam overtake many of its peers in the World Economic
League Table. Cebr forecasts that Vietnam will move swiftly up the World Economic League Table
rankings, from 39th position in 2022 to 26th in 2037.
232
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
West Bank and Gaza
The West Bank and Gaza are territories claimed by the state of Palestine, though they are currently
occupied by Israel. As of 2022, the economy saw PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $6,354. This is
significantly weaker than the state of Israel, for which GDP per capita was $52,173 in PPP adjusted
terms in 2022.
After experiencing a GDP contraction of 11.3% in 2020, the economy of these territories grew by 7.0%
in 2021 and an expected 4.0% in 2022. Output in 2022 was therefore 1.3% below 2019 levels, with a
catch-up expected in 2023.
As with other economies in the region, inflation in the West Bank and Gaza was moderate in 2022,
amounting to an expected rate of 4.9%. This was significantly up on the previous decade's average of
1.0%, however.
The West Bank and Gaza suffers from a structurally high unemployment rate. Nevertheless, this did
fall in 2022, reaching 25.7%, having stood 0.7 percentage points higher in 2021. The level of
government debt is moderate, with the public sector debt to GDP ratio thought to have stood at
44.7% in 2022. This is below the 50.4% recorded in 2021.
The annual rate of GDP growth is forecasted to average 2.4% between 2023 and 2027. Over the
subsequent decade, Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.0% on average each year. This
would be insufficient for the country to maintain its WELT ranking, falling from 117th in 2022 to 119th
by 2037. This forecast is highly contingent on geopolitical circumstances, however. The nature of
relations between the territory and Israel will have significant ramifications for the growth path.
West Bank and Gaza
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-41%
-16%
1%
-2%
-
3%
32%
72%
110%
Current price GDP, USD bn
6
12
16
18
19
19
28
40
53
Rank
141
131
118
121
117
120
121
120
119
233
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Yemen
As of 2022, Yemen is estimated to have PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $2,136 and is classified as a
low-income country. In terms of GDP per capita, Yemen is the poorest economy in the Middle East
and amongst the poorest in the world.
Yemen has been in the midst of civil war since 2014 and a food insecurity crisis since 2016. Both of
these factors have hampered economic performance, with the economy contracting in six of the
eight years between 2014 and 2021. Following a GDP contraction of 8.5% in 2020, the economy
shrank further in 2021, by 1.0%. However, rare growth is expected to have taken place in 2022,
amounting to 2.0% year-on-year.
Inflation has been very high in 2022, at an estimated 43.8%. Just six other countries are expected to
have seen a higher inflation rate over the year. Estimated inflation in 2022 was more than twice the
previous decade's average of 21.1%.
Despite the weak performance in recent years, more sustained growth is anticipated over the forecast
horizon, facilitated by a low base level of output. Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP
growth is set to rise to an average of 5.7%. From 2028 to 2037, Cebr forecasts average annual
growth at a slightly slower rate of 5.5%. In the coming 15 years, Yemen is forecast to retain its 2022
World Economic League Table position of 107th.
Yemen
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
58%
63%
6%
-2%
-
3%
32%
72%
125%
Current price GDP, USD bn
22
35
27
20
28
27
34
48
69
Rank
97
93
103
115
107
112
111
107
107
234
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Zambia
As of 2022, Zambia is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $3,808 and is classified as
a low-income country.
After suffering from a GDP contraction of 2.8% in 2020, growth of 4.6% was seen in 2021. Further
growth of 2.9% is expected to have taken place in 2022, leaving output 4.6% above 2019 levels.
Inflation is expected to have averaged 12.5% in Zambia in 2022. This exceeded the previous decade’s
average of 11.0%.
Having been one of Africa’s fastest growing economies at the turn of the millennium, Zambia has
since seen a period of slower growth. Large fiscal deficits have been one of the drivers of this weaker
performance. In mid-2022, the International Monetary Fund approved a significant credit package for
Zambia, with the aim of restoring fiscal stability.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will average 4.5%, up
from an average of 3.0% over the previous decade. For the remainder of the forecast horizon,
economic growth is expected to accelerate to an average of 5.0% per year. Between 2022 and 2037,
Zambia is forecast to move from 108th to 104th place in the World Economic League Table.
Zambia
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-50%
-26%
-9%
-3%
-
4%
25%
59%
103%
Current price GDP, USD bn
14
26
26
21
28
31
38
54
76
Rank
108
103
104
112
108
106
106
104
104
235
World Economic League Table 2021
World Economic League Table 2023
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe is a lower-middle-income country with an expected PPP adjusted GDP per capita of
$2,555 as of 2022.
After suffering from a GDP contraction of 5.2% in 2020, growth of 7.2% was seen in 2021. Further
growth of 3.0% is expected to have been seen in 2022, leaving output 4.7% above 2019 levels.
Zimbabwe has historically grappled with hyperinflation, particularly in the mid-to-late 2000s.
Inflation in 2022 is expected to have averaged 284.9%. Though this rate is significantly weaker in
magnitude than those seen during the hyperinflationary period, this marked the fastest price growth
of any country in 2022.
Public sector debt is high in Zimbabwe. In 2022, government debt as a share of GDP is expected to
have climbed to 92.6%, even higher than the 66.9% recorded in 2021.
Between 2023 and 2027, Cebr forecasts an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.9%. Slightly
stronger growth of 3.0% is then expected for the period from 2028 to 2037. Nevertheless, this
growth is set to be weaker than other similarly sized economies. As such, Zimbabwe is set to fall
down the World Economic League Table. Cebr forecasts that its position will move from 99th in 2022
to 115th by 2037.
Zimbabwe
2007
2012
2017
2021
2022
2023
2027
2032
2037
Constant price GDP, local
currency, level relative to 2022
-40%
-13%
-3%
-3%
-
3%
15%
34%
55%
Current price GDP, USD bn
8
17
21
33
39
20
35
45
57
Rank
136
117
112
101
99
118
109
111
115
