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MARKET
IN
MINUTES
Savills Research
Residential Sales
Shanghai – April 2024
High-end market transactions stand out
Increases observed in both land and first-hand transaction prices.
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James Macdonald
Senior Director
China
+8621 6391 6688
james.macdonald@
savills.com.cn
RESEARCH
Please contact
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Savills team
“Shanghai experienced a
decrease in both first-hand
supply and demand, yet
prices rose due to eased
purchase restrictions and
lower interest rates,
contributing to market
stabilisation.”
JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH
• First-hand commodity residential supply fell 49.7% in
Q1/2024 to 1.63 million sqm, down 10.2% YoY.
• First-hand commodity residential transaction volumes
decreased 30.1% QoQ to 1.39 million sqm, down 47.3% YoY.
• Average transaction prices increased 14.4% QoQ to
RMB78,911 per sqm, up 28.3% YoY.
• Four projects, Arbour, Qingcheng Mansion, The Bund
Garden and YUNE, added 1,278 apartments to the market
in Q1/2024.
• First-hand high-end apartment transaction volumes surged
to 210,846 sqm in Q1/2024, up 35.9% YoY.
• First-hand high-end apartment transaction prices
increased 2.5% in Q1/2024 to an average of RMB129,586 per
sqm, up 6.0% YoY.
• Second-hand residential sales volumes declined 4.3%
QoQ to 3.2 million sqm, down 19.7% YoY; while average
transaction prices edged down 1.3% QoQ to RMB41,060
psm up 1.7% YoY.
• A total of 5 residential plots were auctioned with a buildable
area of 284,022 sqm selling for RMB13.4 billion at an average
accommodation value (AV) of RMB47,217 psm.
Shirley Tang
Senior Director
Shanghai
+8621 6391 6688
shirley.tang@
savills.com.cn
Jordan Pan
Director
Shanghai
+8621 6391 6688
jordan.pan@
savills.com.cn
RESIDENTIAL SALES
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MARKET FOCUS
Home purchase restrictions relaxation
expanded
The Shanghai Municipal Government has
expanded the geographic scope of its relaxed
home purchase restrictions. Previously
limited to Qingpu and Fengxian districts,
non-local residents who have consistently
paid social insurance or individual income
tax for five years can now acquire one
property outside the Outer Ring Road.
This policy encompasses several additional
districts, including Xuhui, Changning,
Minhang, and Pudong.
Favourable financing conditions have also
been introduced. Following the significant
reduction of the 5-year Loan Prime Rate
(LPR) to 3.95% in February (the largest such
decrease since the mechanism’s inception in
2019), first-time homebuyers can now access
mortgages at a rate of 3.85%. The rate for
second-home purchases remains at 4.25%,
with a slightly lower rate of 4.15% applicable
in Baoshan, Jinshan, and certain other
districts.
The Shanghai government’s work report
proposes to address this by supplying
70,000 units of affordable housing within
the year, promoting a more balanced
housing market and offering cost-effective
options for residents.
OVERALL COMMODITY
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
First-hand Market - First-hand commodity
residential supply decreased 49.7% in
Q1/2024 to 1.63 million sqm, down 10.2%
YoY. First-hand commodity residential
transaction volumes fell 30.1% QoQ to
1.39 million sqm, down 47.3% YoY. Average
transaction prices increased 14.4% QoQ to
RMB78,911 per sqm, up 28.3% YoY.
The launch of new high-end residential
developments, coupled with the
authorisation of price adjustments for
existing inventory, has invigorated market
sentiment, fostered improved buyer
expectations, and pushed up average
transaction prices.
Second-hand Market - Second-hand
residential sales volumes declined 4.3% QoQ
to 3.2 million sqm, down 19.7% YoY; while
average transaction prices edged down 1.3%
QoQ to RMB41,060 psm up 1.7% YoY.
Transaction volumes outside the Outer
Ring typically represent over half of the
total transaction volume of the city. Despite
a moderate decline in prices within the
outer ring road, the steady increase in
prices outside this area, coupled with recent
relaxations on house purchase restrictions,
has bolstered the citywide average price.
HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL SALES
MARKET
Four projects, Arbour, Qingcheng Mansion,
The Bund Garden and YUNE, added 1,278
apartments to the market in Q1/2024.
First-hand high-end apartment transaction
volumes surged to 210,846 sqm in Q1/2024,
up 35.9% YoY. The transaction prices
increased 2.5% in Q1/2024 to an average of
RMB129,586 per sqm, up 6.0% YoY.
Prime Shanghai locations have witnessed
a substantial influx of high-end residential
units entering the market. Notably, many
of these projects have secured approval
for pricing exceeding that of previous
GRAPH 1: First-Hand Commodity Residential
Market Supply, Transaction Volume And Prices,
Q2/2019 To Q1/2024
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
RMB per sq m
million sq m
Supply (LHS) Transaction volume (LHS)
Average transaction price (RHS)
GRAPH 2: Second-Hand Residential Sales Market
Transactions And Prices, Mar 2016 To Mar 2024
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
RMB psm
Within inner Inner to mid Mid to outer Outside outer
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
GRAPH 3: First-Hand, High-End Apartment Market
Supply, Mar 2016 To Mar 2024
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
mn sqm
Within inner Inner to mid Mid to outer Outside outer
TABLE1: First-Hand Commodity Residential Market By Property Type, Q1/2024
APARTMENT VILLA OVERALL
SUPPLY
SQ M 1,567,244 66,103 1,633,347
YoY (%) -12.7% 186.0% -10.2%
TRANSACTIONS
SQ M 1,319,153 67, 511 1,386,664
YoY (%) -45.4% -42.0% -45.2%
AVERAGE PRICE
RMB PSM 78,025 96,218 78,911
YoY (%) 19.7% 49.9% 21.1%
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
Residential Sales
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offerings. Capitalizing on recently relaxed
regulations, developers have launched
these projects at an accelerated pace.
This strategy leverages the current
strength of high-end buyer sentiment and
a less competitive market environment.
Consequently, several projects have
achieved complete sales upon initial
offering.
The sustained resilience of the high-end
market segment underscores the depth of
Shanghai’s high-net-worth demographic.
It further emphasizes the significance
ascribed to premium living experiences
and the prevailing confidence in the city’s
property market.
RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET
The auction of Shanghai’s first eleven
residential land plots will be conducted in
two phases. The initial five plots were sold
in March, encompassing a total buildable
area of 284,022 sqm, with a combined
consideration of RMB13.4 billion. The
average accommodation value (AV) stood at
RMB47,217 per sqm.
One plot each in Jing’an, Yangpu, Pudong,
Minhang, and Baoshan districts were
offered. Overall, the plots garnered
significant interest, achieving a premium
rate of 9%. Except for the plot in Baoshan,
all plots underwent a lottery process. SOE
developers dominated the auctions.
The remaining six plots were auctioned in
April, covering a buildable area of 349,530
sqm. Although the overall reserve price
was set at RMB11.2 billion, the transactions
amounted to RMB11.9 billion. Requirements
concerning the proportion of small-to-
medium-sized units were eased, with an
expanded definition of such units and a
reduction in the requirement.
Notably, the plot in Pujin Subdistrict,
Minhang, only required 50% of units to
be small-to-medium-sized and attracted
bids from 12 developers. It was eventually
acquired by Dahua Group, a private
developer, for a total consideration of
RMB2.6 billion and RMB42,350 per sqm.
Another private developer, Longfor, also
secured a plot in Fengxian New City.
MARKET OUTLOOK
Shanghai’s 2024 annual land supply plan
outlines a 10% reduction in residential
land allocation, bringing the total to a
range of 440-545 hectares. Compared
to the prior year, the Xuhui and Yangpu
districts may experience a greater
increase in supply.
The first quarter witnessed a decrease in
both new residential project launches, and
land allocated for development, reflecting
adjustments to meet evolving market
demand. However, the easing of purchase
restrictions in areas outside the Outer
Ring Road, coupled with the growing
popularity of high-end projects, may
introduce positive factors that contribute
to enhanced buyer confidence in the
Shanghai residential market.
PROJECT DISTRICT AREA
TRANSACTION
AREA (SQM)
AVERAGE
TRANSACTION
PRICE (RMB
PSM)
Arbour Huangpu Huaihai Road M 102,150 172,051
Bund House Huangpu
Huangpu
Riverfront
459 164,087
Shanghai Aroma
Garden
Huangpu Laoximen 29,637 163,865
The Bund Garden Huangpu
Huangpu
Riverfront
33,487 162,311
Qingcheng
Mansion
Huangpu Laoximen 27,786 146,194
TABLE2: Top Five Apartment Projects By First-hand Transaction Prices,
Q1/2024
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
GRAPH 4: First-hand, High-End Apartment Supply,
Q2/2019 To Q1/2024
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
'000 sq m
Primary Secondary Emerging
GRAPH 5: First-hand, High-End Apartment Transaction
Volumes And Prices, Q2/2019 To Q1/2024
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Q4/2010 = 100
'000 sq m
Emerging transaction volume (LHS) Secondary transaction volume (LHS)
Primary transaction volume (LHS) Primary price index (RHS)
Secondary price index (RHS) Emerging price index (RHS)
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
GRAPH 6: For-sale Residential Land Transaction
Area (Buildable Area) And AV, Q2/2019 To Q1/2024
Source Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center, Savills Research
0
8,000
16,000
24,000
32,000
40,000
48,000
56,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
RMB per sq m
million sq m
Total GFA (LHS) Average price (RHS)
Residential Sales
